Westmorland and Lonsdale
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 21792 (46%)
Conservative: 20956 (44.3%)
Labour: 3651 (7.7%)
Other: 928 (2%)
Majority: 836 (1.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22302 (44.9%)
Labour: 3796 (7.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22569 (45.5%)
UKIP: 660 (1.3%)
Other: 309 (0.6%)
Majority: 267 (0.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22486 (46.9%)
Labour: 5234 (10.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 19339 (40.4%)
UKIP: 552 (1.2%)
Other: 292 (0.6%)
Majority: 3147 (6.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21470 (42.3%)
Labour: 10459 (20.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 16949 (33.4%)
Referendum: 1931 (3.8%)
Majority: 4521 (8.9%)
Boundary changes: loses Broughton-in-Furness and part of the Crake Valley to Barrow & Furness.
Profile: A large rural seat in Cumbria. The seat includes Kendal, Windermere, Sedburgh, Kirkby Lonsdale and Ambleside, but not the historic county town of Appleby-in-Westmorland. It also includes Lake Windermere, Coniston Water and much of the Lake District. The local economy is largely based on agriculture and tourism. In 2005 the Conservative shadow minister Tim Collins was defeated in the seat, the lone victim of what had been described as a Liberal Democrat decapitation strategy against Conservative frontbenchers in marginal seats.
Current MP: Tim Farron (Lib Dem) born 1970, Preston. Educated at Lostock Hall School and University of Newcastle. Unsuccesfully contested Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2001 prior to his election in 2005. Served briefly as Lib Dem spokesman for youth affairs before being appointed as PPS to Menzies Campbell after the 2006 leadership election. Countryside spokesman from 2007, he resigned in March 2008 to support a referendum on the Lisbon treaty (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
John Wiseman (Labour) IT teacher. Former St Helens councillor.
John Mander (UKIP) born Ambleside. Educated at Oxford University. Former teacher and auctioneer. Contested Lancaster and Wyre 2005.
Gareth McKeever (Conservative) Executive Director at Morgan Stanley
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82587
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 19.3%
Over 60: 27.7%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 23.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 10.7% (Council: 7.6%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 10%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.5%
I don’t think a Tory gain can be ruled out. I think of Cornwall North in 1979 when everyone seemed to think John Pardoe couldn’t lose but he did quite badly in the end. I’m not saying there’s any particular comparison between the two events but it just shows that the unexpected can happen, especially when it’s actually in line with the national picture.
But the ‘national picture’ in1979 would have predicted Conservative gains in:
Isle of Ely (October 1974 majority = 2685),
Isle of Wight (majority 2040),
Truro (majority 464), and
Berwick-on-Tweed (majority 73 !).
The Liberals held all these 4 seats in 1979.
1979 is often quoted by Lib Dems as proof that the Liberals hold seats even when there is a Tory revival (Of course, we don’t yet know whether 2009/10 will be a full or partial recovery, or what the result will be atall).
David Steel wrote that Ian Makardo had challenged him to a bet that only Joe Grimmond would survive, which he took with a tenner.
I am told that in those days, polls were done not even prompting precodes, and hence the Libs below 10% in polls most of the time.
My argument is that 1979 was too small a sample of seats anyway to test the likely performance of LDs and Tories vs each other in 2009/10, and that the larger number of Lib seats at the moment is a reflection of part of the national swing against the Tories, hence the LIb Dems being also vulnerable to a swing the other way.
I don’t quite understand why the Tories appear to be in trouble in this seat when it’s still very marginal, but the local elections are appalling, and I can only guess it’s some kind of shell shock effect, as I posted earlier.
I’m interested in the recent comment that a Con gain may occur afterall, but I would have to admit that this is one of the seats I would expect the LDs to resist the swing, as a most likely, again circa Beith in 1979.
Can’t think why, because unlike Beith who has some gravitas, the current MP here rather lacks that IMO.
One advantage that the then Liberals had in 1979 was that by having so few MPs those that they did have were individually much more prominent.
I expect the likes of Beith, Freud, Penhaligon, Wainwright and especially fat Cyril were in the media quite frequently and so were able to build up more name recognition and thus a larger personal vote than just an ordinary Labour or Conservative MP.
The difference now is that many of the vulnerable LibDem MPs aren’t even household names in their own household
The fact that I can give the names of more Liberal MPs of the 1970s than I can of the much greater number of present LibDem MPs might be indicative. Liberal MPs in those days were characters and I suggest figures of local pride, nowadays LibDem MPs are just ordinary politicians no different to those of other parties.
Just been reading the ConHome thread on the selection of their candidate. They don’t seem too thrilled with him.
There did seem a strong desire for a local candidate and the selection of a London based banker seems to have been badly received.
ConHome tends to divide between CCHQ patsies, and unpleasant trolls, many of whom I doubt are Conservatives anyway. Those that are are probably inactive - I challenged one of them whether he did anything to help the party and he got nasty, so I took that as a no.
About 20% are sensible comments.
Since his defeat in 2005, when he was a shadow minister and high profile in the Tory party, I’ve occasionally asked on various threads what happened to Tim Collins but never had any response. Just curious - I hope he’s OK!
He did post on Conservative Home in 2006 explaining some of what happened here - I put the link further up this thread, (although I saw it more recently). Other than that, I don’t know what he’s doing.
CC aggregate votes for this constituency
LibDem 20733 Con 12903 Lab 962 Others 486
I think the results here could have prevented the Tories getting overall control of the County Council - the one key place they missed out really.
The Tories’ woes continue in this area as the LDs score the highest percentage in the country in South Lakeland in the Euro elections:
LD - 36.8% (+16.8%)
C - 30.5% (-6.2%)
UKIP - 11.2% (-1.3%)
Green - 6.9% (-1.1%)
Lab - 5.2% (-7.4%)
BNP - 3.2% (+0.4%)
Turnout - 50.0% (+0.4%)
Maybe the Tories should parachute Iain Dale in? He knows what it takes to turn a super marginal into a safe seat…
“Maybe the Tories should parachute Iain Dale in? He knows what it takes to turn a super marginal into a safe seat…”
Yeah, for his opponent.
As a Tory reading this thread I get the same kind of sinking feeling as when I peruse the Sheffield Hallam one. The local party in this seat seem set on following Hallam’s example of inept candidate selection (or lack of candidate selection in the case of Hallam’s parliamentary nomination currently) and a string of weak campaigns ceding ever more ground at local government level to the Lib Dems. You have to ask (as some comments up thread indeed have with regard to this seat) would an aspiring Conservative really be that keen on being the candidate in either seat?
Of course there is in theory the possibility of carrying the Conservative colours to a remarkable triumph, and in this seat the majority is still quite small. Were I in that position though I would just think that the risk of being swept away by a combination of a Lib Dem first time incumbency bonus (or in the case of Hallam a party leader’s bonus) and the continuation of a series of strong Lib Dem performances at council level is just too great. I just wouldn’t want it on my political CV that I was one of the few candidates in an election at which we were swept to power to preside over a decline in the Conservative vote.