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Westminster North

2010 Results:
Conservative: 15251 (38.51%)
Labour: 17377 (43.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 5513 (13.92%)
BNP: 334 (0.84%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.21%)
English Democrat: 99 (0.25%)
Christian: 98 (0.25%)
Independent: 133 (0.34%)
Majority: 2126 (5.37%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 13925 (41.8%)
Conservative: 10904 (32.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6248 (18.7%)
Other: 2276 (6.8%)
Majority: 3021 (9.1%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12065 (29.7%)
Labour: 18196 (44.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7569 (18.6%)
Green: 1985 (4.9%)
UKIP: 456 (1.1%)
Other: 409 (1%)
Majority: 6131 (15.1%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 9981 (26.9%)
Labour: 20247 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4669 (12.6%)
UKIP: 354 (1%)
Green: 1268 (3.4%)
Other: 533 (1.4%)
Majority: 10266 (27.7%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 13710 (29%)
Labour: 28367 (59.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4041 (8.5%)
Referendum: 867 (1.8%)
Other: 359 (0.8%)
Majority: 14657 (31%)

Boundary changes: Major. The old Regent`s Park and Kensington North seat loses all of its Kensington wards as part of the re-organisation of seats in west central London, instead gaining Lancaster Gate and Bayswater from Cities of London and Westminster.

Profile: A recreation of the Westminster North seat that existed between 1983 and 1997, replacing the old Regent`s Park and Kensington North seat. While Westminster is popularly associated with highly expensive residential areas like Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Belgravia, this seat contains the far more deprived areas from the north of the Borough, as well as some more desirable and deeply Conservative areas that between them make it a key marginal. While the Westminster wards that make up Cities of London and Westminster to the south all return full slates of Tory coucillors, all four Labour wards on Westminster borough council are found in this seat.

The Conservative parts of Westminster North include Regent`s Park in the east, which contains London Zoo and the London Central Mosque, the wealthy spacious properties in St John`s Wood near Lord`s cricket ground and in Little Venice, the expensive flats and apartments of Bayswater, with its Arab, Brazilian and Greek communities. Labour strength is in the council estates and social housing projects, for as well as the elegant terraces and squares, there are also tower blocks and deprivation, homelessness and sub-standard private rental housing. Labour`s strength lies in the Lisson Grove estate and and in the more cosmopolitan areas towards the north-west of the sea like West Kilburn, Paddington and Westbourne Green.

portraitCurrent MP: Karen Buck(Labour) born 1958, Castlederg, County Tyrone. Educated at Chelmsford High School and the LSE. Former charity, local government and Labour party officer. Westminster councillor from 1990-1997. First elected as MP for Regent`s Park and Kensington North in 1997. Rejected an appointment as a government whip in 2001, but joined the government as a junior transport minister between 2005-2007 (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitJoanne Cash (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister, specialising in defamation, employment, contempt, copyright and privacy.
portraitKaren Buck(Labour) born 1958, Castlederg, County Tyrone. Educated at Chelmsford High School and the LSE. Former charity, local government and Labour party officer. Westminster councillor from 1990-1997. First elected as MP for Regent`s Park and Kensington North in 1997. Rejected an appointment as a government whip in 2001, but joined the government as a junior transport minister between 2005-2007 (more information at They work for you)
portraitMark Blackburn (Liberal Democrat) Educated at the LSE. Small businessman who sold his show retail business in 2007.
portraitTristan James Law Smith (Green) born 1975. Educated at Dulwich College and the School of Oriental and African Studies. Contested the Cities of London and Westminster in 2005.
portraitJasna Badzak (UKIP)
portraitStephen Curry (BNP)
portraitEdward Roseman (English Democrat)
portraitGabriela Fajardo (Christian Party)
portraitAbby Dharamsey (Independent)
portraitAli Bahaijoub (Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 92863
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 17.8%
Over 60: 15.5%
Born outside UK: 45.3%
White: 68.6%
Black: 10.1%
Asian: 9.9%
Mixed: 4.8%
Other: 6.7%
Christian: 52.3%
Hindu: 2%
Jewish: 5.2%
Muslim: 14.1%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 46.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.2%
Owner-Occupied: 37.1%
Social Housing: 30.4% (Council: 15.6%, Housing Ass.: 14.8%)
Privately Rented: 27.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

611 Responses to “Westminster North”

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  1. In local elections the Tories remain the dominant party in this constituency.

    I was having a look at the 2010 local election results, held on the same day as the 2010 General Election, and the Tories seem to be clearly ahead in the wards forming the constituency.

    Labour won the following council wards, Church Street, Harrow Road, Queens Park and Westbourne.

    I was wondering which wards voted Tory locally and for Labour in the general election.

    At first I felt they were Bayswater, Lancaster Gate, Little Venice and Maida Vale with the Conservatives ahead in Abbey Road, Hyde Park and Regents Park.

    Looking at the margins of victory in the wards, however, the Tories may have been just ahead in Bayswater and Lancaster Gate while Labour may have won in Regents Park.

  2. I’d have thought it more likely that Labour would have been closest in Maida Vale out of the Tory held wards. I can’t imagine where in Regent’s Park Labour would have a decent amount of support although they do win the Regent’s Park ward in Camden quite easily.

  3. “I was wondering which wards voted Tory locally and for Labour in the general election.”

    Why do you assume that any wards must have done so? I don’t think any did although AKMD is right that Maida Vale would have been closest. The Conservatives most likely carrried all six wards that they carry locally but by only a few hundred in the case of Little Venice, Maida Vale and Bayswater while Labour were leading by 1500-2000 in Queens Park, Harrow Road and Westbourne. Also turnout was higher in the Labour wards.

  4. Dalek is barking up the wrong tree.

    Labour were able to hold this seat primarily by running up high turnouts and high vote shares of 60-70% in their four safe wards.

    There will have been some voters in those wards who voted Tory in the local elections and Labour for the general election, as there will have been in the Tory wards too. But nowhere near enough that Little Venice, Regents Park, Bayswater or Lancaster Gate could have voted Labour. Maida Vale would have been close as AKMD says, but I expect the Tories were still ahead there too.

    The Tories have 2 wards (Abbey Road and Regents Park) where they get 50-60% of the vote and 4 where they get 40-50% (Maida Vale, Bayswater, Lancaster Gate and Little Venice). Mathematically that means Labour can still win if it gets 60-70% in its 4 wards even if it doesn’t win any of the others.

  5. Pete beats me to it again.

  6. I thought at first that Karen Buck had been ahead in Maida Vale but I then realised Pete was right (in 2010, as he still is now). There was ticket-splitting, but not enough to make a Tory ward vote Labour. The desperation of Labour voters in the 4 safe wards to beat the Tory candidate was enough to engender a turnout which allowed Labour to win

  7. While I can understand ticket splitting, what baffles me is people voting in one election but not for another held at the same time.

    What was the difference between the votes in the general election and the local election here?

  8. There was quite a big difference but there is an exceptionally large number of people who qualify for local elections but not general elections here

  9. “There was quite a big difference but there is an exceptionally large number of people who qualify for local elections but not general elections here”

    Such people would primarily be East and West Europeans, backing up my view that EU immigrants are generally Tory-leaning when they bother to vote.

  10. Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:

    Abbey Road: 50.8% / 37.4%
    Bayswater: 50.4% / 37.0%
    Church Street: 38.7% / 22.2%
    Harrow Road: 40.0% / 29.1%
    Lancaster Gate: 40.1% / 28.9%
    Little Venice: 51.8% / 37.8%
    Maida Vale: 53.5% / 37.5%
    Queen’s Park: 38.3% / 29.5%
    Regent’s Park: 42.4% / 30.6%
    Westbourne: 39.1% / 26.1%

    Westminster North: 44.4% / 31.3%

    White overall, Westminster North:
    2001: 68.6%
    2011: 56.3%

  11. The four white British majority wards in 2001 all declined to about 37% in 2011.

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