82 Responses to “West Ham”

1. John Chanin

   I worked in Newham for many years (as well as being born there) and it had a BAME majority by the time I started in 1985. Politics is surprisingly interesting with the CPA representing the large African population as posted above. The census shows large Tamil and Pilipino populations here as well – London is a fascinating place.

   The BNP could have won council seats here in the 1990s if they had tried – they came very close in Canning Town without seriously trying.

   I don’t LIKE the new Chingford seat. I simply agreed with the Boundary Commission that you have to cross the Lea somewhere, and it is usually better to do so upstream where there are more bridges and better communication. My own original proposals crossed between Hackney Wick and Leyton. However I agree that linking Leyton with Stratford makes a good deal of sense in community terms and this isn’t an area where I’m thinking of commenting in the Commission’s consultation.

   October 12th, 2011 at 7:41 pm
2. LBernard

   It was reported this week that 80% of children in Newham of secondary school age are from ethnic minorities. The highest number in London. It will be interesting to see the census figures here in the next few decades to see what all the new residents of the developments that will follow the olympics will do to the ethnic make up of the borough.
   I have also noticed that although there is a great deal of building going on around the old docks in the south of the borough many flats seem to be linked to housing associations which helps to explain why the Tories are still lagging behind Labour in this particular part of Newham.

   November 18th, 2011 at 11:32 am
3. Pete Whitehead

   Where was this report?

   November 18th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
4. Ellwood

   There was something in the Standard about over 50% of all children in state schools in London are non-white and it highlighted Newham has the most non-white borough on this measure.

   Such a statistic demonstrates why the demographic trend in London is going to be devastating for the Tories unless they can start to win a decent chunk of the ethnic minority vote.

   November 18th, 2011 at 12:31 pm
5. LBernard

   In the Evening Standard Pete….Interesting reading on the journey home.

   I would imagine it’s on their website. It was compiled by a Kings College professor I believe between 2000-2009.

   It made light of the fact that now for the first time over 50% of secondary school age children in London are not White British with massive divides across the capital.

   November 18th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
6. LBernard

   “Such a statistic demonstrates why the demographic trend in London is going to be devastating for the Tories unless they can start to win a decent chunk of the ethnic minority vote”

   Thats why I was wondering what effect developments in this part of London will have on demographics here. I would imagine many white families send their children to schools outside the capital or in neighbouring, more suburban boroughs, so many White British families living in Newham probably send their children to schools in Havering for example.

   November 18th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
7. Pete Whitehead

   “In the Evening Standard Pete….
   It made light of the fact that now for the first time over 50% of secondary school age children in London are not White British”

   Thanks – i’ll have a look on their website.
   I assume you mean that they brought this fact to light rather than that they made light of it, which would imply they trivialised it or made it a source of amusement. Perhaps they did both. Personally I find the fact neither trivial or amusing

   November 18th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
8. LBernard

   They brought it to the attention of Londoners. It was interesting to read and they did not make light of it at all. They reported it in a way that even the most politically correct idiot couldn’t find it offensive. It does show just how diverse London is, but also highlights that in some schools in Tower Hamlets 95% of pupils (secondary age) were Asian which is not ‘diverse’ at all.

   November 18th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
9. LBernard

   Having a look at some old borough election results and found out that the Tories won a full slate of councillors in Forest Gate and Manor Park wards in 1968, only to lose them all by 1971. Was this due to demographic change? It seems a short space of time to lose all your councillors to another party. The 1971 results also showS a great decline in in the Residents Ass votes throughout the borough.

   July 13th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
10. H.Hemmelig

    Nothing to do with demographic change.

    1968 was probably Labour’s worst local election year since the war.

    They were wiped out across swathes of inner London where they usually hold most or all of the councillors.

    They got back most of what they lost in 1971.

    The most famous example was John Major, who won a very safe Labour ward in Brixton in 1968 and lost it in 1971.

    July 13th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
11. LBernard

    Cheers for that HH. I couldn’t believe the amount of seats the Tories gained in 1968. Maybe the Wilson governments unpopularity had much to do with it as well?

    Yes I did see John Major pop up that year!

    I was even more shocked that there were RA candidates in Newham! I thought Labour always held every seat in that borough.

    July 13th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
12. Pete Whitehead

    There were RA/Independent councillors right up to the early 80s – for most of the history of the borough they were the only oppostion to Labour. They did tend to do better in some of the better off wards such as Greatfield (which later went Tory for one term) and Manor Park (difficult to equate with the word ‘better off’, but back in the day, relatively speaking I suppose it was)

    July 13th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
13. Barnaby Marder

    LB – surprised you didn’t know about the 1968 results. To say the Wilson government was unpopular is an understatement roughly equal to saying that it has rained a little recently in the Pennines. In that election the Tories won control even in Islington – a borough which has had very few Tory councillors in its history since 1965 – and Hackney, as well as several other boroughs for the only time in history (Brent, Camden, Greenwich, Haringey, Hounslow, Lambeth, Lewisham). Labour won only 4 boroughs in the whole of London & lost control of councils such as Coventry & Sheffield. These results were cataclysmic & have never been repeated, though 2 councils were held which have subsequently been lost, though now regained (Southwark & Tower Hamlets). I was actually
    living in Newham when the Tories won Greatfield, now essentially the East Ham South ward; they won 2 seats and Labour the other. If my memory serves Kevin Jenkins was the only successful Labour candidate.

    July 13th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
14. richard

    IIRC seeing some old news clips about the 1968 elections.

    Apparantly the Conservatives hadn’t had a single councillor in Islington for the 15 years prior.

    Some of the Conservative candiates who won didn’t even bother going to the count as they had no interest in the election but had only allowed their name to be put on the ballot paper as the Conservatives couldn’t find enough ‘proper’ candidates.

    They were rather put out when they discovered they had been elected.

    Didn’t the Conservatives have a clean sweep of the Birmingham wards in 1968 as well? The individual results there must be odd reading now.

    July 13th, 2012 at 7:20 pm
15. richard

    I’ve just seen that the Conservative candidate was a Richmond councillor, I wonder if JJB knows her?

    July 13th, 2012 at 7:23 pm
16. Pete Whitehead

    “Didn’t the Conservatives have a clean sweep of the Birmingham wards in 1968 as well? ”

    Not quite but there was a complete Labour wipeout in the seats contested that year. The Liberals though won three seats (Aston, Duddeston and Newtown) with the Conservatives winning the other 36

    July 13th, 2012 at 7:55 pm
17. richard

    So the LibDem gain in Ladywood in 1969 wasn’t entirely the big surprise its generally believed.

    July 13th, 2012 at 8:14 pm
18. Barnaby Marder

    I’m sure Joe does as well, but I certainly know Virginia Morris who is an East Sheen councillor along with Lord Nick True & Nicky Urquhart whom I also know. She was an occasional customer in my shop when she was a girl but her father & brother (a piano teacher) were in more frequently

    July 13th, 2012 at 8:55 pm
19. Lbernard

    Barnaby, I had fairly limited knowledge regarding London politics in the 60s. Reading the election data for the decade makes fascinating reading! It’s a real shame that RA councillors are no longer in Newham. I really don’t lik one party states, either Tory or Labour.

    July 13th, 2012 at 11:10 pm
20. H.Hemmelig

    “Some of the Conservative candiates who won didn’t even bother going to the count as they had no interest in the election but had only allowed their name to be put on the ballot paper as the Conservatives couldn’t find enough ‘proper’ candidates.

    They were rather put out when they discovered they had been elected.”

    Not to quite the same extent as 1968, but 1982 saw the same thing happening in parts of London.

    That year, the Tories swept almost all the seats in north Croydon, including gaining wards which have always been rock solid Labour like Broad Green and Bensham Manor. There were similar tales of paper candidates being unhappy to find themselves elected.

    July 13th, 2012 at 11:28 pm
21. Barnaby Marder

    Yes this happened in Brighton in 1992. That year the Tories won 13 of the 16 wards including some (most notably Moulsecoomb but also Stanmer & Tenantry) which hadn’t been won for decades & some of their successful candidates were clearly totally unsuited to office. I myself know a guy called Mike who was talked into standing for the Tories in Turnham Green ward in local elections, not realising he would almost certainly be elected. He served out his term with some competence but has told me he was very young & naive, and would never have stood if he’d known he’d be elected. Funnily enough I know 2 of the existing councillors for that ward from the same pub, but they’re a different kettle of fish; they fought a very clever campaign to win back a ward from Labour in a bad year & won well, to give them their due. I had to refuse an offer to stand in Newham in 1990, because I couldn’t possibly have served on that council at that time; I knew unlike some of the others that I’d be certain to be elected.

    July 13th, 2012 at 11:46 pm
22. Pete Whitehead

    “So the LibDem gain in Ladywood in 1969 wasn’t entirely the big surprise its generally believed”

    I don’t know if it was or not, but Wallace Lawler represented the Newtown ward since 1962 which was mostly in the Ladywood seat then (the seat had been created on different ward boundaries and at the time it was created comprised the wards of Duddeston, Ladywood and St Pauls – on the new ward boundaries from 1962, Newtown more or less covered the same are as St Pauls.)
    The aggregate votes in the three wards in 1968 were

    Lib 4563 48.1%
    Con 2786 29.4%
    Lab 2138 22.5%

    Wallace Lawler won more votes in his ward than Labour won in all three wards combined

    July 14th, 2012 at 10:16 am
23. richard

    Do you have the 1968 results for the other Birmingham constituencies Pete?

    July 14th, 2012 at 11:26 am
24. Pete Whitehead

    I have the ward results for 1968 so could construct something similar. The problem as I mentioned is that the ward boundaries changed in 1962 so from then until 1974 the ward and constituency boundaries were out of sync. It wouldn’t make a huge difference in most cases though

    July 14th, 2012 at 11:51 am
25. richard

    So the ward boundaries changed in 1962.

    That makes Labour’s blocking of the new constituencies prior to 1970 even more like blatant gerrymandering.

    July 14th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
26. Robin Hood

    “Not to quite the same extent as 1968, but 1982 saw the same thing happening in parts of London. That year, the Tories swept almost all the seats in north Croydon, including gaining wards which have always been rock solid Labour like Broad Green and Bensham Manor. There were similar tales of paper candidates being unhappy to find themselves elected.”

    Actually, H Hemmelig, I was an SDP activist during the 1982 local elections in Croydon and went to the count at true-blue Fairfield (where we were crushed, on 21% against 66% for Labour, though did manage to come second ahead of Labour). I couldn’t believe it when one of our candidates from Broad Green Ward came into the room and told me he thought the Tories had won his ward.

    I did actually go canvassing in Broad Green one night during that campaign and actually persuaded a Tory voter to vote tactically for the Alliance on the grounds that only the Alliance could beat Labour!

    One of the victorious Conservative candidates for Broad Green was a fresh-faced young Tory by the name of Andrew Pelling – who went on to win the Croydon Central parliamentary seat by 75 votes in the 2005 general electon. They were re-counting the votes until 7am and it was truly acrimonious when the result was finally announced. Of course, Pelling since defected to Labour.

    Broad Green and the rest of North Croydon has probably changed – both democraphically and politically – more than any other part of London in the last thirty years, and I doubt will ever vote Tory again. I don’t want to get into an argument but I personally love the way it’s changed, especially the part of Bensham Manor which is now almost solidly Gujarati.

    However, what will Broad Green do if the boundary proposals go through? I heard it’s being joined with a part of Sutton where an incumbent Lib Dem MP is trying to fend of a Tory challenge (needless to say, said MP is fighting against the boundary proposal). Will Broad Green remain true to Labour if the boundary alteraton goes ahead or will the Lib Dem campaign machine be able to squeeze the massive Labour vote? If the latter, will the Lib Dems then be able to go on and successfully challenge for the ward in subsequent local elections? The prospect will, I suspect, galvanise Labour into fighting hard to turn the new seat into a 3-way battleground (especially if Labour feel that the unfavourable boundary changes to Croydon Central – soon to be renamed ‘Croydon East’ – put that particular seat beyond their reach).

    Should be interesting.

    July 14th, 2012 at 11:03 pm
27. Robin Hood

    “…the count at true-blue Fairfield (where we were crushed, on 21% against 66% for Labour, though did manage to come second ahead of Labour).

    Sorry, that should have read 66% for the Tories.

    July 14th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
28. H.Hemmelig

    Good evening Robin Hood.

    Thanks for a really interesting post, as always.

    On the subject of the new Croydon Central & St Helier constituency, I think it is very likely that Labour will work hard to get its traditional vote back from the Lib Dems in St Helier. The mayoral election showed Labour doing surprisingly well again there. Together with Labour’s natural strength in Croydon, I think this will turn the seat into a close Con-Lab battle which Labour have a fair chance of winning.

    I do not think there is a cat in hell’s chance of the Lib Dems holding their vote in St Helier, or squeezing the Labour vote in Croydon. I believe the Lib Dems will come a poor 3rd in the new seat, presuming it comes into existence.

    Really interesting to hear that you were politically involved in Croydon 30 years ago. You mention the huge changes which we are all aware of. From your perspective, what were the wards such as Broad Green and West Thornton like in 1982, compared with today?

    July 15th, 2012 at 12:40 am
29. Joe James B

    Croydon (would be better on those threads though)

    % share of the poll, 1964-2010
    % poll CON LAB LD other
    6.5.10 63.8 36.8 31.9 18.7 12.7
    4.5.06 40.4 44.7 25.6 13.3 16.4
    2.5.02 34.5 45.4 37.9 12.1 4.7
    7.5.98 37.8 47.5 38.2 12.1 2.2
    5.5.94 46.5 42.5 38.9 15.4 3.2
    3.5.90 45.8 48.1 35.2 9.7 7.0
    8.5.86 42.7 45.1 28.8 23.9 2.2
    6.5.82 40.3 55.6 18.6 22.5 3.2
    4.5.78 41.6 59.8 29.4 6.6 4.1
    4.5.74 39.0 52.8 30.5 14.3 2.4
    13.5.71 37.7 47.4 40.8 6.1 5.7
    9.5.68 36.2 58.9 16.9 11.9 12.3
    7.5.64 38.2 41.6 35.4 11.4 11.6

    July 15th, 2012 at 1:58 am
30. Robin Hood

    Hi, H Hemmelig.

    In answer to your question, Broad Green and West Thornton were mainly white in 1982 though were showing signs of change even then – and had already acquired a significant Asian vote, especially in the case of the latter. From memory, that Asian vote was by no means solidly Labour (at least not at that stage).

    Down the road in Fairfield (where I lived) it was also far whiter than today, although the demographic change has not yet been sufficient to tip that ward into the Labour column (at least not in local government terms). There is a vast amount of very expensive housing in Fairfield, and I would expect those areas (e.g. Sandilands) to remain true-blue despite the growing Asian vote.

    As for Bensham Manor in 1982, the Falkands ensured a Tory victory there but there had already previously been signs of the Conservative hold slipping on that ward. In the 1974 locals the Tories only narrowly won it but barely increased their majority in 1978 (despit a 6% swing across the capital), possibly because Asian shop owners were more reluctant to vote for Thatcher after her ‘swamping’ speech than they had been to vote for the party when it was led by Heath.

    A similar thing happened in other parts of the capital with rising Asian votes (e.g. Hounslow West, which the Tories were gob-smacked not to win in 1978) and maybe parts of Ilford South.

    I’ll now check out the Croydon Central thread, as that’s more appropriate..!

    July 15th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
31. H.Hemmelig

    Thanks Robin Hood

    July 15th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
32. Andy JS

    Census results, white British, 2001 / 2011:

    Canning Town North: 49.6% / 26.1%
    Canning Town South: 56.3% / 29.7%
    Custom House: 52.8% / 27.9%
    Forest Gate North: 36.1% / 20.7%
    Forest Gate South: 28.2% / 16.0%
    Green Street West: 11.9% / 4.8%
    Plaistow North: 31.1% / 15.6%
    Plaistow South: 44.8% / 19.0%
    Stratford & New Town: 38.2% / 20.9%
    West Ham: 38.1% / 19.1%

    TOTAL: 38.1% / 19.9%

    White overall, West Ham:
    2001: 44.1%
    2011: 34.5%

    February 2nd, 2013 at 11:44 pm