Yes all the Tory councillors in Rotherham represent seats which will be in the Rother Valley seat.

I’m not sure exactly what Dave and Ben are asking me for but hope this may be some help:

This was the sum of the results in the two Dearne wards (Barnsley borough)

Lab 2360 46.3%
LD 1249 24.5%
BNP 1128 22.1%
Con 257 5.0%
Ind 102 2.0%

And in the much larger Wentworth (Rotherham) section:

Lab 8602 54.0%
Con 4683 29.4%
BNP 1456 9.1%
UKIP 707 4.4%
LD 494 3.1%

Giving a total for this constituency:

Lab 10962 52.1%
Con 4940 23.5%
BNP 2584 12.3%
LD 1743 8.3%
Oth 809 3.8%

(Labour and Conservatives fought all wards. BNP fought 4 of 8, LD 3 of 8 and UKIP 1)
The BNP’s best result in the constituency was actually in the Rotherham ward of Wingfield (30.8% and 2nd place)

JJB

I disagree there is massive disillusionment about Labour among working class voters in this area.

Labour will still dominate in the over 50s but the younger generation feel betrayed, hence the large BNP support.

The Conservatives will be hoping to gain Wickersley and possibly Silverdale wards here (although I expect they will be putting more effort into the RotherValley area) in May. A Conservative victory in Swinton would also be possible except that the spoilsports at the Boundary Commission split the Conservative voting area in Swinton between Swinton and Wath wards.

I would expect Labour to win about 25,000 votes again.

May 2008

Lab 9501 41.2 %
Con 5427 23.6 %
UKIP 5066 22.0 %
LD 1691 7.3 %
BNP 982 4.3 %
IND 375 1.6 %

UKIP didnt contest the Dearne wards so were actually on an average of 28% in the Rotherham wards in this seat. ASC was speuclating on Amber Valley that many voters in ex-mining areas would not be prepared to vote Conservative but would desert Labour for other parties on the right, in that case the BNP. This result shows also that UKIP is able to appeal to those parts of the electorate that the Tories can never reach. This in a way mirrors how in ther mid 90s when the Tories were desperately unpopular, voters in (for example) parts of Surrey who could not countenance voting Labour were prepared to vote for the LIberal Democrats - a left wing party but one not associated historically with the ‘wrong’ class as Labour might still have seemed and as the Tories would still appear ina reas like this. This means that Labour faces losing votes in all areas and in all directions. In leftie urban areas this may still be to the LIberal Democrats as in 2005 and to an extent also to the Green party and other fringe left wing parties, but in more socially typical and working class areas increasingly it will be to the right, and where the Tories are still seen as beyond the pale, to the far right. Ofcourse this seat isnt under any threat ( a similar seat was still safely Labour in 1931), but it demonstrates tendencies which are likely to threaten Labour’s position in other seats which they may have counted as safe but where there is a substantial Tory m inority which could benefit from a haemoraging of the Labout vote eg. Don Valley, Rother Valley, Derbyshire NE etc

I totally agree Pete

Labour will have the problem at the next election of having to fight on several fronts and what the likes of Polly Toynbee want from Labour are often the exact opposite of what someone from a Yorkshire industrial background wants.

Polly Toynbee has had her time in the sun and its well and truly over - all she has to show for it is that she resembles the shrivelled up prune that she is

No, don’t agree. Core working class voters are quite happy to accept the progressive liberal agenda as long as they feel their core concerns are also being given some priority. They are the central parts of the Labour coalition, just as moral traditionalists and free-marketeers are those of the Tories - and both are contradictory.

Labour have managed to irritate both of their core voting blocs: quite an achievement - so yes, disillusioned labour voters are likely to go to a variety of directions, although I think many core working class voters won’t bother to vote at all. That’s already been happening, but they managed to hide it because enough floaters were sticking with them. Now those floaters are drifting to the Tories, they have been shocked by just how fed up their core supporters are.

“Core working class voters are quite happy to accept the progressive liberal agenda as long as they feel their core concerns are also being given some priority”

But their ‘core concerns’ are very often in conflict with a progressive liberal agenda when it comes to issues such as crime and immigration. I get the impression that when Merseymike talks about a ‘progressive liberal’ agenda he is preoccupied more than most are with issues of homosexual equality. It is almost certainly true that for the vast majority of us who are not homosexual that this issue is extremely marginal and while people in an area like this may not be activeley in favour of for example the reduction of the age of consent, or civil partnerships they are probably not very actively against either, because this is a trivial issue to people who are concerned with day to day problems such as the price of filling their petrol tank.
I dont think though that people are quite as acquiescent as Merseymike likes to believe when it comes to issues such as uncontrolled immigration, multi-culturalism and lax law and order policies which also stem from this ‘progressive liberal agenda’ and which have a direct impact on people’s lives. Otherwise he needs to explain why 10,000 people in Barnsley borough voted for the BNP this May - more than half as many as voted Labour (in the Barnsley Central seat they won 23% compared to 33% for Labour)

“Perhaps the scars from the 1980-81 recession are gradually fading, and people who want a fresh approach are considering a change.”

In mining areas like this the events of 1984/5 and 1992 are more important. But yes things are changing as memories fade and populations change. For younger people the effect of recent mass immigration are important as this sort of area has until recently never experienced it before.

Maltby isn’t a bad place as pit villages go as it has plenty of amenities and several private estates built from the 1970s onwards. It’s western part falls into safely Conservative Hellaby ward. The results of the last three years though do suggest the Labour core vote is losing it’s loyalty:

2006
Labour 42%
Independent 38%
LibDem 20%

2007
Independent 32%
Labour 29%
BNP 22%
LibDem 9%
Conservative 8%

2008
BNP 23%
Labour 22%
Independent 17%
Independent 14%
Independent 11%
Conservative 10%
UKIP 3%

I think most BNP voters are working class. This can cause difficulties for the Conservatives in places like Bradford and Halifax if they attract working class Conservatives but in mining areas BNP voters will be overwhelmingly ex-Labour. I wonder if the BNP are planning to stand in nearby Bassetlaw at the county council elections next year. I think they would do well in Labour supporting areas like Harworth and Worksop.

In this constituency there is an imminent byelection in Wickersley ward. It will be interesting if Labour can hold as Wickersley saw a Conservative gain in May by 100 votes.