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Waveney

2010 Results:
Conservative: 20571 (40.22%)
Labour: 19802 (38.72%)
Liberal Democrat: 6811 (13.32%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.25%)
Green: 1167 (2.28%)
Independent: 106 (0.21%)
Majority: 769 (1.5%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 22488 (45.4%)
Conservative: 16553 (33.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7487 (15.1%)
Other: 3059 (6.2%)
Majority: 5936 (12%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16590 (33.4%)
Labour: 22505 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7497 (15.1%)
Green: 1200 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1861 (3.7%)
Majority: 5915 (11.9%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 15361 (32.6%)
Labour: 23914 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5370 (11.4%)
UKIP: 1097 (2.3%)
Green: 983 (2.1%)
Other: 442 (0.9%)
Majority: 8553 (18.1%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 19393 (34.3%)
Labour: 31846 (56.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5054 (8.9%)
Other: 318 (0.6%)
Majority: 12453 (22%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Peter Aldous (Conservative) Chartered surveyor. Former Suffolk county councillor. Former Waveney councillor. Contested Waveney 2005.

2010 election candidates:
portraitPeter Aldous (Conservative) Chartered surveyor. Former Suffolk county councillor. Former Waveney councillor. Contested Waveney 2005.
portraitBob Blizzard(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
portraitAlan Dean (Liberal Democrat)
portraitGraham Elliott (Green)
portraitJack Tyler (UKIP)
portraitLois Barfe (Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 99239
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 26.2%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 73.8%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 11.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36%
Owner-Occupied: 72.3%
Social Housing: 14.9% (Council: 9.6%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 9.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.1%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

133 Responses to “Waveney”

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  1. There’s nothing to explain, it’s just silly. Blizzard has won 3 times now & in general has enjoyed above-average results.

  2. It was funny, though – wasn’t it?

    LAB HOLD – IMO

  3. It’s not just silly… well it is and isn’t. At the last GE I was 18 and I know a good few people who voted based on party colour, candidate haircut etc.
    The name Bob Blizzard disarms skeptics and sticks in the mind and especially since he’s been around for a while, means an above average number of people will remember him, as an individual rather than a part of labour.
    Remember that most people do not know the name of their mp, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those forget that it’s not a presidential election.

  4. Remarkable that this seat now needs an identical swing to Ipswich. Since 1974 Ipswich has previously always been a better area for Labour.

    Blizzard seems to be fairly popular and I think LAB HOLD

  5. nope. it was close but the Tories won it.

  6. nope. it was close but the Tories won it.

  7. Peter Aldous’ father died on Wednesday – PA got called away from Westminster suddenly.

  8. Peter Aldous’ father died on Wednesday – PA got called away from Westminster suddenly…

  9. Paid my first ever visit to Lowestoft yesterday.

    I was half expecting it to be one of those derelict seaside resorts that have seen better days, like Blackpool and Margate.

    In fact, I thought both Lowestoft and Oulton Broad seemed like they were still quite nice places.

    I wonder if Labour have any way back here or in Yarmouth.

  10. That’s interesting. I’ve never been to either Lowestoft or Yarmouth but I certainly imagined something on similar lines to Margate, which when I visited there several years ago was an absolutely shocking dump

  11. Hi Pete

    And by the way, yes I saw your Evening Standard comment in the print edition!

    I got the impression that Lowestoft benefitsa lot from people going on boating holidays on the broads. Outlon Broad is known as the southern access to the broads. There are certainly boats all over the place and the town is not at all derelict or boarded up.

    I last visited Margate on a hot summer’s day in 2009. I had last gone there as an 11 year old in 1987. It was hardly nice even then, but I couldn’t believe how far downhill it had gone. The last straw was the closure of ther Dreamland park, which still looms over the town like a big giant of dereliction. I had similar feelings last time I visited Blackpool.

    I have never been to Yarmouth either. I have a hunch it will be similar to Margate and Blackpool, if not quite so bad.

  12. I’ve been to Yarmouth and Lowestoft and I think it’s true that those areas are nowhere near as bad as some of those seaside dumps such as Margate, Blackpool, etc.

  13. There is still high unemployment (and of course deprivasion) in the area though I think you’ll find. The last MP Bob Blizzard used to spout hot air about the dramatic fall in unemployment in Waveney since the last Tory govt – but he never quoted all the figures, such as the LONGTERM unemployed.

    I think I have read that youth unemployment is 25-30%in Lowestoft/Yarmouth area – and that happened under Labour, not since like they like to pretend.

    Meanwhile MP Peter Aldous is fighting hard for Lowestoft to be included in the new Enterpise zones being set up which will boost employment, apparently a joint Lowestoft/Yarmouth EZ is a real possibility.

    Peter Aldous is also fighting hard to rescue/rejuvenate what’s left of the once thriving fishing industry, along with some of the S-W MPs in similar ex-fishing districts.

  14. Labour selection process timetable

    (Open Shortlist)

    Closing date for applications 12 September 2011 (midnight)
    Longlisting: 14 September 2011
    Interviews and shortlisting: 1 October 2011
    Selection meeting: 21 October 2011

  15. Lowestoft /Gt. Yarmouth’s bid for Enterprise Zone was successful, a big and much-needed fillip for the area.

    And a tribute to the hard efforts of Peter Aldous MP in the bid.

  16. Lowestoft is better than burnt out wrecks like Clacton and Hastings. However Yarmouth isn’t.

    Odd therefore that the Conservatives are doing better in Yarmouth than in Lowestoft.

    Pity that we didn’t continue with the local government reviews. A council joining the two towns would make a great deal of sense.

  17. Bob Blizzard has been reselected as the Labour candidate for 2015.

  18. Yes, doesn’t look like there are any boundary changes proposed here.

  19. 6% swing to Labour in tonight’s Worlingham by election on a 42% turnout.

    Green 137 cons 708 LD 48 UKIP 64 Lab 586

    Cons: 708 45.9%
    Lab: 586 38.0%
    Greens: 137 8.9%
    UKIP 64 4.1%
    LD 48 3.1%

  20. That’s a very good result for Labour, it being a 6% swing SINCE MAY this year. The ward wouldn’t normally be regarded as winnable so this will please Labour in what of course is a true marginal constituency.

  21. I don’t know the details of the candidates but usually a local council by-election has new candidates and so incumbancy/ name recoginition is lost for a party in these circumstances.

    At the parliamentry level on the other hand, when the MP seeks re-election they will have the advantage of incumbancy so i would not read to much into local election results vis a vis potential party breakthroughs/ resurgence.

  22. ‘Lowestoft is better than burnt out wrecks like Clacton and Hastings. However Yarmouth isn’t.

    Odd therefore that the Conservatives are doing better in Yarmouth than in Lowestoft. ‘

    Yarmouth is far worst than Lowestoft – but it’s hardly unique as a whole host of delapidated seaside resorts reverted to their former Tory selves in 2010 – from morecambe to blackpool to ramsgate to hastings

    some – like southend, littlehampton and skegness – never departed

    Still on a more even year you’d expect Labour to be capable of mounting a challenge in such places and even though these seats have reverted to type on a large swing – they are likely to remain marginal, whereas they were once pretty rock solid for the Tories

  23. Skegness as a place isn’t that bad. It isn’t dilapidated like Blackpool or Margate, nor is it anything like as big. It never had loads of hotels or B&Bs because most holidaymakers would stay in its famous camps. The lack of decaying hotels therefore puts it at an advantage to the other places Tim mentions.

    I think compared to the other places Skegness is quite residential – mostly retirees from the East Midlands, which accounts for the relatively strong base of both Conservative and Labour voters in the town. Of course Boston and some rural hinterland is also included in the seat.

  24. “Yarmouth is far worst than Lowestoft – but it’s hardly unique as a whole host of delapidated seaside resorts reverted to their former Tory selves in 2010 – from morecambe to blackpool to ramsgate to hastings”

    It’s worth remembering, Tim, that Blackpool South contains the urban core of the town including the pleasure beach and the tower and was retained by Labour last year. I believe that Blackpool North is a mainly residential area and is somewhat less rundown than the other Blackpool seat hence it being a Tory gain while the other one was not.

  25. It’s not really true to say that Littlehampton & Skegness “never departed” from voting Conservative. Rather, they are in constituencies where any Labour lead within these towns themselves can be and so far has been outnumbered by the Tory superiority elsewhere. There’s no doubt that Skegness will have voted Labour in 1997 & 2001, and probably Boston as well, but the Labour lead in these towns was (just) outvoted by the Tory lead in the more rural parts of the constituency. Littlehampton has become, in I would venture to suggest a slightly-better-than-even year, a somewhat Labour-leaning town, but any Labour lead which has accrued in it has been swamped by the Tory lead in the larger Bognor Regis & the small rural tail which completes that constituency. At present it would be true to say that Littlehampton, Skegness & Southend would all be Tory towns, but judging from this year’s local election results that isn’t true of Blackpool, Ramsgate or Hastings and I don’t think really Morecambe either. Hastings as a town must clearly have voted Labour in 2010 but the remainder of the constituency has been large enough – just – to prevent Labour from holding it, so while there is some truth in what you say Tim not all your facts are strictly correct.

  26. The Conservatives have gained control of Waveney council by taking a seat in Beccles South from Labour in a by-election

  27. That would be majority control then Pete?
    I understood that the Tories already controlled it as a minority.

  28. Yes indeed an overall majority now

  29. Thought so. Thanks.

    A good result then and might-as I expected-bode well for the PCC elections.

  30. Waveney 2015 most likely

    Lab 42.8 (+4.1)
    Con 39.1 (-1.1)
    LD 6.9 (-6.4)
    UKIP 6 (+0.7)
    Grn 4.2 (+2.0)
    Others 2

    Turnout 67.5%

  31. Is it correct then that Waveney council area is rather more Tory than its eponymous constituency?

  32. Somewhat yes. There are about 10,000 voters from Waveney district in the Suffolk Coastal seat who are much more Tory inclined than those in this constituency – it covers rural areas and the small towns of Halesworth and Southwold. Halesworth is winnable for Labour but its a while since they have won it I think and is certainly much less so than Lowestoft or Beccles

  33. Thanks Pete, as always

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