Warwickshire North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18993 (40.18%)
Labour: 18939 (40.07%)
Liberal Democrat: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.46%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.82%)
English Democrat: 411 (0.87%)
Majority: 54 (0.11%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20805 (47.9%)
Conservative: 14108 (32.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5671 (13%)
Other: 2881 (6.6%)
Majority: 6698 (15.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15008 (32%)
Labour: 22561 (48.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6212 (13.2%)
BNP: 1910 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1248 (2.7%)
Majority: 7553 (16.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14384 (32.4%)
Labour: 24023 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5052 (11.4%)
UKIP: 950 (2.1%)
Majority: 9639 (21.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16902 (31.2%)
Labour: 31669 (58.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4040 (7.4%)
Referendum: 917 (1.7%)
Other: 711 (1.3%)
Majority: 14767 (27.2%)
Boundary changes: gains part of Bede ward and a tiny part of Slough ward from Nuneaton, but loses the wards of Arley and Whitacre and Hartshill.
Profile: A strangely shaped seat to the north-east of Birmingham where it snakes westwards from Bedworth around the seat of Nuneaton, takes in Coleshill and then curves back east south of Tamworth to include Atherston north of Nuneaton. The seat is largely the rural hinterland between Birmingham, Tamworth, Nuneaton and Coventry, and might be expected to be the sort of semi-rural commuterland where the Conservatives dominate. In fact it covers a large part of the old North Warwickshire coalfield, and as such there is a solid Labour vote here. The seat was won by Labour in 1992, unseating the then Conservative MP Francis Maude, who subsequently resurfaced in Horsham.
Coleshill is the site of the Conservative Party`s campaigning centre.
Current MP: Dan Byles (Conservative) born 1974. Educated at Warwick School and the University of Leeds. Former Major in the Royal Army Medical Corps, having seen active service in Bosnia. Rowed unsupported across the Atlantic in 1997 and in 2007 walked to the magnetic North pole.
Dan Byles (Conservative) born 1974. Educated at Warwick School and the University of Leeds. Former Major in the Royal Army Medical Corps, having seen active service in Bosnia. Rowed unsupported across the Atlantic in 1997 and in 2007 walked to the magnetic North pole.Mike OBrien(Labour) born 1954, Worcester. Educated at Blessed Edward Oldcome RC School and North Staffordshire Polytechnic. Solicitor. First elected as MP for Warwickshire North in 1992. A spokesman on home affairs in opposition, he became under-secretary of state in the Home Office from 1997 till 2001 when he was sacked after being dragged into the Hinduja affair. He returned to government as Minister of State at the Foreign Office 2002-2004, Minister of State at the DTI 2004-2005 and Solicitor General since 2005 (more information at They work for you)Stephen Martin (Liberal Democrat)Steve Fowler (UKIP) Jason Holmes (BNP)David Lane (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87096
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 97.1%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.2%
Sikh: 1.4%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.7%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 15.7% (Council: 13%, Housing Ass.: 2.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
I don’t think the LD vote would go lower than about 7% in a general election.
I tend to agree with Barnaby upthread. Although this seat seems to be trending Conservative, Labour should still have enough strength to win this back in 2015. I’d say:
Labour 46
Conservative 41
Liberal Democrat 7
Prediction for 2015-
Labour- 21, 765 (46.0%, +5.93%)
Byles (Tory)- 19, 455 (41.1%, +0.92%)
Lib Dem- 3, 467 (7.3%, -4.3%)
Others- 2, 589 (5.4%, -2.75%)
Lab gain.
Turnout- 47, 276.
Majority- 2, 310 (4.8%)
Swing- +2.505% From Con to Lab.
Copycat :p
A comprehensive Labour Target List for the next election that I finished working on about a week ago. (I meant to put a link to it on here at that time but forgot for some reason):
ht tp://bit.ly/WexUeU
Another link to a link to that list. Come and join the debates.
ht tp://vote-2012.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1284&page=1
Obviously I’m hopeful this seat does a Hyndburn in 1987. I am waiting closer to 2015 before making a prediction.
Re THE RESULTS ***
I can’t see the vote share for other parties falling here.