Warwick and Leamington
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20876 (42.58%)
Labour: 17363 (35.41%)
Liberal Democrat: 8977 (18.31%)
UKIP: 926 (1.89%)
Green: 693 (1.41%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
Majority: 3513 (7.17%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18926 (45.8%)
Conservative: 13659 (33.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6752 (16.4%)
Other: 1950 (4.7%)
Majority: 5266 (12.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 21972 (40.1%)
Labour: 22238 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8119 (14.8%)
Green: 1534 (2.8%)
UKIP: 921 (1.7%)
Majority: 266 (0.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20155 (37.6%)
Labour: 26108 (48.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5964 (11.1%)
UKIP: 648 (1.2%)
Other: 664 (1.2%)
Majority: 5953 (11.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23349 (38.9%)
Labour: 26747 (44.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7133 (11.9%)
Referendum: 1484 (2.5%)
Other: 1378 (2.3%)
Majority: 3398 (5.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris White (Conservative) Educated at Manchester University. Engineer. Contested Warwick & Leamington 2005, Birmingham Hall Green 2001.
Chris White (Conservative) Educated at Manchester University. Engineer. Contested Warwick & Leamington 2005, Birmingham Hall Green 2001. James Plaskitt(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Alan Beddow (Liberal Democrat) born 1966. Project Manager for IBM.Ian Davison (Green) Christopher Lenton (UKIP)Jim Cullinane (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86083
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 20.6%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 9.8%
White: 91.3%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 6.2%
Mixed: 1.3%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 68.8%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 0.6%
Sikh: 4.6%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 27.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.1%
Owner-Occupied: 68.9%
Social Housing: 17.4% (Council: 12.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.7%)
Privately Rented: 10.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.3%
That would certainly be a very worthwhile bet. Not saying this will be a Labour hold – probably not, but worth a small bet on those odds
Can I ask what county wards are in this seat?
Someone said 8, plus a partial bit of a ninth. I assume this includes the 3 Warwick divisions, 4 from Leamington and Whitnash. What is the 9th ward?
Also which of the 9 wards is only partially in the seat? Is it the one I dont know the name of?
Yes those odds on Labour are quite generous. On an uniform national swing, a Tory lead of 9% means a Labour hold here. Could be very close.
If the rumours of Labour doing especially badly in the Midlands have any truth at all, the Tories shouldn’t have too much of a problem winning this seat. But one has to be cautious about such rumours.
There’s been a rumour like that in most elections in my adult life, except 1997 & 2001. In no cases has it been true yet. For example, in 2005 there was supposed to be a “Longbridge effect” which would cause numerous Tory gains from Labour in the West Midlands. In fact, none were made at all, and the Tories lost Solihull as well. Of course, it could happen, but let’s wait and see shall we.
If I stuck my neck out I think it will now go Tory, by about 1,000.
For a long time thought Labour would just hold on – by about 1,000.
But I think this could go Tory with a slightly larger than average swing, unravelling a bit from Labour’s very strong results, so it doesn’t mean Tories would necessarily get an overall majority if they took this.
With boundary changes definitely favouring Labour, could it be that the Tories who just failed to gain in 2005, just fail to gain in 2010?
I feel it is very close. Thank you Barnaby for your fair point of 1 January. This time it could be that the West Midlands factor works for Tories. As you say we must wait and see.
I shall not predict yet.
Sasha,
May I remind you that it was actually Chris White and David Cameron who were talking about closures to Warwick Hospital where James actually put in the effort to ensure that these did not go through. It is purely scare mongering on the part of the Tories and incredibly false claims.
Since they came into power, we have had battles with Warwick Fire Station, local services such as liabraries and the Leamington Bath House to name a few. James is by far the best choice for the constituency going forward!!!!!
Lab Hold= 100 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 1100
Con maj 1,250
Because the Lab vote is so fickle nationally this could yet become one of the surprises of the night.Chris White might cause an upset but I still feel that James Plaskitt,because of incumbency could yet survive.Depends on how strong the Lib Vote is.Lab by hundreds at the moment.
David
The wards in this seat are indeed the three Warwick ones, four Leamington Spa wards, Whitnash and Bishops Tachbrook. The County ward which is partly in this seat is Leek Wootton, as it contains part of the Budbrooke District ward.
Chris
Messrs. White and Cameron were indeed talking about the possible Hospital cuts, they were talking about their opposition to them. Mr Paskitt made no noticeable effort at the time with regards to his opposition to the proposed cuts. At the time Mr Plaskitt made statements to the local press, saying that there was no threat at all. If that is your position Chris, when you refer to scaremongering, then it is impossible for Mr Plaskitt to have put in effort to ensure there weren’t cuts if there were not any in the first place.
My punt at a prediction, a Conservative gain. I doubt the Conservatives will manage more than a 1000-1500 majority however. I would be surprised if the Liberal Democrats didn’t manage to get 20% of the vote.
could be a seat where voters take the tactical voting route could vote LD , deprive Labour of votes and see the Cons win
If the final polls are right Chris White could be on his way to Parliament.Don’t count your chickens just yet.Thanks to all the candidates who have fought fair and honest campaigns.Good luck to you all.
Adrian an LD vote here is clearly not tactical!
I go for a very narrow LAB HOLD
Labour did pretty badly in the West Midlands outside of its main conurbation. This was no exception. Labour will hope to recapture it before long, nevertheless.
Labour did appallingly in all the seats surrounding the West Midlands conurbation. I haven’t done a final check but I think Cannock was the safest Labour seat lost to the Tories. Huge swings in Tamworth and Warwickshire too.
However the reason for this post is that the published electorate figures for Warwick (and Kenilworth/Southam) are wrong. Does anyone know what the correct figures are?
Has Henley-in-Arden been in this constituency since its creation?
I’m sad to see James Plaskitt has lost this seat. I heard he was a very good MP as well as a nice guy.
I don’t think it’s in this seat any more, Harry. Isn’t it in Kenilworth & Southam now?
Its in Stratford on Avon and has been since 1950
A rare mistake from Pete Whitehead. Henley in Arden was moved into Warwick & leamington when Kenilworth was moved out to Rugby. It has now gone back to Stratford where it belongs.
Although it had a similar swing to the likes of Cannock and Warwickshire N it is a much more middle class constituency.
In fact it must be a candidate for the best Conservative result in this type of seat.
The Tory vote must be within a smidgen of what it was in 1992.
A larger swing than I thought.
In 1992 the Conservative vote in Warwick/Leamington was 48.3%. In 2010 it was 42.6%. However there have been two unfavourable boundary changes for the Conservatives since 1992. The current seat is solidly urban with a substantial BAME population. The 1992 seat included rural villages around the town plus the plush middle-class town of Kenilworth,
The Conservatives almost certainly polled higher in 2010 on the current boundaries than in 1992. The swings in this part of the country were particularly large.
PS: The Audit Commission has just given Warwick Council zero stars for its housing service. Not a good council……
One small correction. There were not two unfavourable boundary changes since 1992 but one favourable one followed by one very unfavourable one. The 1997 boundary changes added Tanworth from Stratford district which will have boosted the Tory majority (or reduced the Labour majority as it turned out). But this was removed along with almost all of the rural wards of Warwick district in 2010 which was potentially disastrous for the Tories as the notional figures show. I agree it looks like on the old boundaries this seat would have been safer in 2010 than in 1992 (possibly about 50/30 when it was 48/33 then). This surprised me. I expected the Tories to win here but did put a small bet on Labour because I thought the swing would be lower than average because of apparent trends in Leamington. The Conservatives even now, following excellent local election results elsewhere in 2007 and 2009 hold no district or county councillors in the town of Leamington where the majority of the electorate reside.
The electorate here is now well below the quota that will be needed with a reduction in seats and the necessary expansion back in to the outlying rural wards is likely to make this into a safe Tory seat again, barring another Labour landslide.
Pete Whitehead is right about 1997 when Tanworth was moved from Stratford to Warwick. I was thinking about 1983 when Kenilworth was moved to Rugby
This constituency now more or less includes literally just Warwick and Leamington, just like the 1997 redistribution reduced Worcester to just Worcester.
Unexpectedly good result for the Tories here, particuarly this being largely a Spa Town seat.
Thought that the boundary changes that increased James Plaskitt’s majority from 266 to 5266 would have been decisive, but obviously not.
Conservatives would have won by nearly 9000 on the old boundaries.
Yes. I thought this seat would probably be very close.
It seems to have unravelled.
‘Unexpectedly good result for the Tories here, particuarly this being largely a Spa Town seat.’
The only uinexpected thing about this seat was that Labour gained it in 97 – and themn held it for the next 13 years
Warwick is a leafy, prosperous market town, whilst Leamington Spa is hardly impoverished
I would have expected the Tories to have held on, even in their nadir years of 1997 and 2001 – even on these new redrawn boundaries which almost remove the rural areas entirely
Was this not Anthony Eden’s old seat
Yes it was but it was far less urban in those days, especially before 1950.
‘it was far less urban in those days’
In Eden’s day this seat also took in Stratford-upon-Avon and Kenilworth.
Good to see an engineer in Parliament.
It’s slightly amazing that in this year’s local elections the only net change was a Conservative gain from Labour compared to 2007.
Labour will select this seat early, I hear, and it will be an All Women Shortlist.
Warwick and Leamington 2015
Con 42.1 (-0.5)
Lab 39.9 (+4.5)
LD 10.9 (-7.4)
UKIP 3.5 (+1.6)
Green 3
others 0.6
Turnout 71.6 (+0.6)