Warrington South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19641 (35.79%)
Labour: 18088 (32.96%)
Liberal Democrat: 15094 (27.51%)
UKIP: 1624 (2.96%)
Green: 427 (0.78%)
Majority: 1553 (2.83%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19490 (41.8%)
Conservative: 14428 (31%)
Liberal Democrat: 11373 (24.4%)
Other: 1301 (2.8%)
Majority: 5062 (10.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15457 (33%)
Labour: 18972 (40.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11111 (23.7%)
UKIP: 804 (1.7%)
Other: 453 (1%)
Majority: 3515 (7.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15022 (33%)
Labour: 22419 (49.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7419 (16.3%)
UKIP: 637 (1.4%)
Majority: 7397 (16.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17914 (32.5%)
Labour: 28721 (52.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7199 (13.1%)
Referendum: 1082 (2%)
Other: 166 (0.3%)
Majority: 10807 (19.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: David Mowat (Conservative) . Educated at Imperial College. Chartered accountant and a former managing partner at Accenture (formerly Andersen Consulting), now Chairman of Fairbridge, a Manchester charity working with deprived young people.
David Mowat (Conservative) . Educated at Imperial College. Chartered accountant and a former managing partner at Accenture (formerly Andersen Consulting), now Chairman of Fairbridge, a Manchester charity working with deprived young people.
Nick Bent (Labour) Educated at Oxford University. Public affairs director and an associate at Demos. Former special advisor to Tessa Jowell. 
Jo Crotty (Liberal Democrat) Educated at the University of Portsmouth, Doctorate from the University of Nottingham. Lecturer at Aston University. Contested Eddisbury in 2005 and the delayed South Staffordshire poll in 2005.
Steph Davies (Green)James Ashington (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96940
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 23.1%
Over 60: 19.8%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 97.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 82.2%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.5%
Owner-Occupied: 80.2%
Social Housing: 13.1% (Council: 9.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 4.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
Along with Chester and Crewe, this is the one of the few constituencies that are commutable to Liverpool and where the Tories have improved upon their 1992 result. Also, in 1983 there was a swing to Labour here, whilst there was a swing against Labour in 1983 in the Wirral and Sefton seats.
Crushing victory for Labour in the Bewsey & Whitecross ward last night, which was gained from the Lib Dems with a swing of 17% since May and a great deal more since the seat was contested – the Labour share of the vote was over 71%.
not sure if it’s in this constituency or North though – perhaps someone could enlighten me.
It is indeed in this constituency. The seat in question was the former seat of the failed LD parliamentary candidate here. I wonder what Roy Jenkins would make of it
the Union/League split is interesting.
Union is also played in the North (Contrary to popular beleif) but mainly in Middle-Class areas (where players did not need Broken Time Payments…this was why League became synonimous with Working Class Support).
You can often “tell” a Middle-Class area in the North by whether it hasan RUFC ground. Salford is League (Salford Reds), Sale is Union (Sale Sharks). Even some solid League towns have RUFC suburbs, see for example Sandal RUFC in Wakefield South ward, or Orrell RUFC near Wigan.
Interestingly, while League is associated with unionised workers and hence Labour, the Tories had some of their best swings in 2010 in League-playing areas.
The North East (Durham, Northumberland, Tyne and Wear) has more union than league though — even in the working class areas. Its only the south of the north that is league country
Comparing the 1983 and 2010 results for this seat it’s notable how similar the LD / Alliance results were:
1983: 14,827 (27.3%)
2010: 15,094 (27.5%)
Joe – I agree. Plus Scouse Rugby Union clubs exist (from West Derby to Waterloo). There, League is said to be played by ‘Woolybacks’ ie St Helens’ folk.
Joe is right that Rugby League has never had much of a presence in the North East (although there was a top division team based in Gateshead for a time). The sport does however have a following in the far north of England in West Cumbria (Whitehaven, Workington and Barrow), and the absence of a team from that part of the world in the top division is something of a glaring omission.
Certainly RL is a sport whose heartland is in traditional Labour areas. I would be interested to see whether that is reflected in the political leanings of those who play the sport professionally. Looking at other sports professional cricketers certainly tend to be Tories (an article earlier this year in Wisden Cricketer magazine on the subject certainly came to that conclusion), and I would imagine the same is true of Rugby Union professionals. I would be less certain as to the picture in other sports, but would not be surprised were any study to find that professional sportsmen generally (including RL players) are more likely to vote Tory than the general population.
Yes very few RL clubs of any consequence are situated in Tory constituencies. One exception would be Dewsbury, but there the town itself where the club is is more Labour than the constituency as a whole. Are there any other Tory constituencies which have a genuine RL heritage?
Arguably Leeds NW, which includes Headingley.
Historically it was always a solidly Conservative seat – although that’s obviously no longer the case.
Wakefield was only held narrowly by Labour last year, and the Tory vote share was very similar to that here. Wakefield RLFC’s ground is in the Wakefield South Ward which elects Conservative councillors. Unfortunately from my party’s point of view Wakefield S is in Hemsworth rather than Wakefield constituency. The result in Wakefield would have been even closer had it included Wakefield S.
The only other example of a Rugby League tradition coexisting with a tendancy to vote Tory that I can think of is in Barrow which elected a Tory MP between 1983 and 1992. The results between those years may have represented something of an aberration though, caused by Labour’s opposition to Trident at the time.
Halifax and Keighley are rugby league towns which often vote Tory.
Rotherham, meanwhile, is a rugby union town, despite being solidly Labour. In fact, league has never been big in South Yorkshire, although union isn’t exactly massive, either.
This rather large Lab to LD swing in 2005, although part of a national pattern, seems a bit strange in this seat which wouldn’t appear to be particularly good ground for the latter.
The Tories will probably need some LD votes aswell to hold on here.
This could be very tight in 2015. The proposed boundary changes help Labour, giving the party a 221 majority. A Lib Dem collapse may also help Labour more than the Tories ( I agree with Joe James B- Mowat will need some Lib Dem votes here). Then again, he may well enjoy an advantage of incumbency in those parts he already represents.
Has the area of ‘Bewsey and Whitecross’ ward been in this seat since 1983?
No it was in Warrington North until 2010
Maybe Harry would be interested in borrowing my copy of the 1995 boundary report which contains maps of both the 1983-1997 and 1997-2010 boundaries (to 2005 in Scotland).
Do the maps show the ward boundaries in those books Andy? It would be very useful to see the 1983-97 one as I am often unsure of ward boundaries in some areas for that time.