Wakefield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15841 (35.64%)
Labour: 17454 (39.27%)
Liberal Democrat: 7256 (16.33%)
BNP: 2581 (5.81%)
Green: 873 (1.96%)
Independent: 439 (0.99%)
Majority: 1613 (3.63%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18014 (43.8%)
Conservative: 11477 (27.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8221 (20%)
Other: 3436 (8.4%)
Majority: 6537 (15.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13648 (31.5%)
Labour: 18802 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7063 (16.3%)
BNP: 1328 (3.1%)
Green: 1297 (3%)
UKIP: 467 (1.1%)
Other: 776 (1.8%)
Majority: 5154 (11.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12638 (30.6%)
Labour: 20592 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5097 (12.4%)
UKIP: 677 (1.6%)
Green: 1075 (2.6%)
Other: 1175 (2.8%)
Majority: 7954 (19.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14373 (28.5%)
Labour: 28977 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5656 (11.2%)
Referendum: 1480 (2.9%)
Majority: 14604 (28.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Mary Creagh(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Alex Story (Conservative) born 1974. Former Olympic rower, now a film and documentary producer. Contested Denton and Reddish in 2005.Mary Creagh(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
David Smith (Liberal Democrat) Born 1957, Paisley. Educated at Inverurie Academy and Glasgow University. Director of Leeds Voice, and former local government officer.Miriam Hawkins (Green)Ian Senior (BNP) Mark Harrop (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91157
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 19.6%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 95.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.4%
Muslim: 2.6%
Full time students: 3.6%
Graduates 16-74: 14.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.9%
Owner-Occupied: 62.7%
Social Housing: 29.8% (Council: 27%, Housing Ass.: 2.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
According to ConservativeHome, Alex Story is one of only five Conservative candidates who UKIP won’t be
standing against.
I presume that’s news to Keith Wells.
In fact, it’s more specific than that… apparently UKIP will actively campaign for Mr Story!
So is Mr Wells still standing, if that is true? It would seem rather odd if he is.
It really doesn’t matter though does it. Tories have been mildly worried about UKIP for the last two elections (and referendum before that). But the truth is that they are really quite irrelevant. UKIP not standing will assist Labour as much or more as it helps the Tories.
Neither does UKIP’s new policy make sense. They are standing against Austin Mitchell and Gordon Henderson who are signed up to Better Off Out. Why didn’t they stand down there too?
UKIP main web site showing for Wakefield:-
” We still haven’t finalised our candidate … “
Lab Hold
Maj 4600
Why are UKIP standing against Bill Cash?
Matt, why are you posting that here? Whats it got to do with Wakefield?
Because UKIP are bakcing the Conservative in Wakefield while Bill Cash is a leading opponent of the EU.
Your prediction is somewhat on the hopeful side.
Con maj 750
Got to thinking that Lab vote fell last time because of the War so would expect a smaller swing against the sitting MP this time.
However it’s not a shoe in yet for Mary Creagh.Expect it to be a long night before Lab finally comes out on top by 1500ish.
BNP and Greens to hold deposits here?
@Lancs Observer
Yes and maybe.
Good job story is not employing any of us. £ 2.50 per hour!!!!!!!!!!!
He isn’t and never was employing anyone on that rate.
The Daily Mirror, Kevin Maguire and all the rest of them know only too well what the truth is but they need to do an assassination job on Alex because he is beating their candidate into the ground
Even the Mirror couldn’t be bothered pursuing the disgruntled ‘nanny’ non-story (pardon the pun) – it’s barely credible, and stalking the guy’s wife is pretty low – she’s trying to look after three very young kids one of who has Down’s. If this is the best attack that Labour can come up with trying to defend Wakefield then they truly are doomed.
I think Pete Whitehead’s prediciton is fairly accurate. I think the Tories will gain this seat with a majority of roughly 800 – 950
I’m not so sure – I disagree with very few of Pete’s predictions atall, although I think turnout is rising quite sharply so the numerical majorities he posted may turn out to be somewhat larger for the same %.
Here I do have some doubts the Tories can make it because I’m not sure this is a high swing area, although I did say the same myself back in 2008.
Anyone got any insight when Wakefield typically declares? (Obviously if it’s very close it’ll take longer.)
5.00 according to the Press Association site Andy Stidwill kindly emailed me.
They will have local election on the same day aswell.
Use this site for more detail, I’ve put XXXX in front of it to avoid delaying this post.
XXXXXXhttp://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_by_time.php
Big movements on Betfair for this seat – Tories now 1.6 vs. 1.95 for Labour, quite a big gap. Tories have been trailing at about 2.2 for most of the campaign, so this is a big shift.
Meanwhile Electoral Calculus is now showing Tories with a 41% chance of winning, vs Labour 32% and Lib 25% – good for the Tories who’ve been behind by their calculations until recently, but the Lib figure is surely overstated, so I would take these figures with a rather large grain of salt.
If the regional polls are right,Mary Creagh is in trouble and I didn’t expect that.
LAB HOLD
I think you’re right Andy, I think Mary will lose this by 600 votes.
If you take the difference between the actual lead (11.9%) and notional lead on the BBC website (17.6%) as fact, then given the winning margin here you could argue the boundary changes may have saved Labour here (albeit they lost a seat in Normanton anyway)
The boundary change could have cost the Tories victory here.
They look like they’re about 10.7% above 1997.
Quite possibly, But the same boundary changes delivered victory in Dewsbury. Quite conceivable actually that on the old boundaries Labour would have held both seats.
It would be funny if it did go Con by a handful of votes after Mary Creagh spent the campaign in the Hemsworth consituency
(she’s standing for Shadow Cabinet)
Ironically the Conservatives won 4 out of the 6 council wards in this constituency.
Also interesting is that the Conservatives came closer to winning Morley & Outwood than Wakefield.
Not a Blair loyalist – she has accused Blair’s favourite African state Rwanda of mass rape and murder of journalists.
Of course if the Wakefield seat had gained back the Tory, Rugby Union-playing communities in Wakefield South Ward which was lost (and swamped) into Hemsworth in 1997 it would likley have gone back to the Conservatives this time (compensating for the loss of Denby Dale and Kirkburton).
Wakefield South gave the Conservatives a majority of 1,007 in the Local Elections. Norman Hazell, an independent who for years was a Tory Councillor polled 1,147. So it is likely in the General the ward backed the Conservatives by up to 2,000, a lead wasted in Hemsworth.
Walter Harrison celebrated his 90th birthday last month. He was MP for this seat from 1964 to 1987.
There was a discussion here back in 2008 regarding the Conservative gain in Ossett ward.
It was implied that the increase in Conservative votes there came from the BNP and that there was no chance of the LibDems losing their other two councillors there.
Well the Conservatives won again in 2010 but that was on general election day in a closely fought Lab-Con parliamentary seat.
This year the Ossett result was:
Con 2178
Lab 2039
LibD 801
Compare with previous years:
2004 (Averages)
LibDem 2118
Labour 1179
BNP 945
Conservative 850
2006
LibDem 1752
Labour 1179
BNP 806
Conservative 794
2007
LibDem 1665
Conservative 1162
Labour 1109
BNP 620
2008
Conservative 1709
LibDem 1694
Labour 1105
Doesn’t seem much doubt now that half of the traditional LibDem vote in Ossett ward was from natural Conservatives voting tactically.
Probably still quite good C results but we’ve missed our chance to take control of the council here ( unfortunately in my opinion).
It was too soon demographically.
At the next turn of the political cycle Wakefield will go Conservative.
So the next time Labour is voted out.
Yes, that’s credible.
In 20 years time the mining areas in Yorkshire will be voting similarly to how the ones in the midlands do now.
In fact in Selby they already are.
With middle suburbia drifting leftwards due to the high proportion of public sector workers and increasing non-white voters the political map will show red urban islands surrounded by a sea of blue.
Similar to how the USA has become.
I suppose the Tories could get it quicker, if they actually move to around 40% and a majority next time,
but even then, I guess it would need a full cycle of another Labour government in and voted out.
Of course if 2009 had been Met elections instead of county council elections Labour would have lost control in Wakefield (and Barnsley for that matter).
Labour’s overall losses in that year would ahve been fewer but perhaps in more embarrassing places.
An amusing political argument in Wakefield over foreign road names…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-13395252
Result of by-election in Horbury / South Ossett:
Lab: 1776 (51.5%)
Con: 1061 (30.8%)
UKIP: 232 (6.7%)
LD: 200 (5.8%)
Ind, Tate: 93 (2.7%)
Ind, Harrop: 88 (2.6%)
Changes since May:
Lab +2.2%, Con -10.5%, LD -3.7%
That’s quite a decent result for Labour, though the swing is actually since May last year, so not dramatic. It isn’t often an easy area for Labour to win, however, and the result will be welcomed by its members.
I agree, a very good result for Labour in an area that was starting to move quite strongly to the tories for the first time when they were in opposition. It seems our gaining control of wakefield for the first time is now well and truely stalled for a few years yet…unless Labour does something silly locally that people dislike and which the Tories can capitalise on.