Wakefield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15841 (35.64%)
Labour: 17454 (39.27%)
Liberal Democrat: 7256 (16.33%)
BNP: 2581 (5.81%)
Green: 873 (1.96%)
Independent: 439 (0.99%)
Majority: 1613 (3.63%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18014 (43.8%)
Conservative: 11477 (27.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8221 (20%)
Other: 3436 (8.4%)
Majority: 6537 (15.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13648 (31.5%)
Labour: 18802 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7063 (16.3%)
BNP: 1328 (3.1%)
Green: 1297 (3%)
UKIP: 467 (1.1%)
Other: 776 (1.8%)
Majority: 5154 (11.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12638 (30.6%)
Labour: 20592 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5097 (12.4%)
UKIP: 677 (1.6%)
Green: 1075 (2.6%)
Other: 1175 (2.8%)
Majority: 7954 (19.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14373 (28.5%)
Labour: 28977 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5656 (11.2%)
Referendum: 1480 (2.9%)
Majority: 14604 (28.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Mary Creagh(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Alex Story (Conservative) born 1974. Former Olympic rower, now a film and documentary producer. Contested Denton and Reddish in 2005.Mary Creagh(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
David Smith (Liberal Democrat) Born 1957, Paisley. Educated at Inverurie Academy and Glasgow University. Director of Leeds Voice, and former local government officer.Miriam Hawkins (Green)Ian Senior (BNP) Mark Harrop (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91157
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 19.6%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 95.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.4%
Muslim: 2.6%
Full time students: 3.6%
Graduates 16-74: 14.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.9%
Owner-Occupied: 62.7%
Social Housing: 29.8% (Council: 27%, Housing Ass.: 2.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
Big movements on Betfair for this seat – Tories now 1.6 vs. 1.95 for Labour, quite a big gap. Tories have been trailing at about 2.2 for most of the campaign, so this is a big shift.
Meanwhile Electoral Calculus is now showing Tories with a 41% chance of winning, vs Labour 32% and Lib 25% – good for the Tories who’ve been behind by their calculations until recently, but the Lib figure is surely overstated, so I would take these figures with a rather large grain of salt.
If the regional polls are right,Mary Creagh is in trouble and I didn’t expect that.
LAB HOLD
I think you’re right Andy, I think Mary will lose this by 600 votes.
If you take the difference between the actual lead (11.9%) and notional lead on the BBC website (17.6%) as fact, then given the winning margin here you could argue the boundary changes may have saved Labour here (albeit they lost a seat in Normanton anyway)