Wakefield
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18014 (43.8%)
Conservative: 11477 (27.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8221 (20%)
Other: 3436 (8.4%)
Majority: 6537 (15.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13648 (31.5%)
Labour: 18802 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7063 (16.3%)
BNP: 1328 (3.1%)
Green: 1297 (3%)
UKIP: 467 (1.1%)
Other: 776 (1.8%)
Majority: 5154 (11.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12638 (30.6%)
Labour: 20592 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5097 (12.4%)
UKIP: 677 (1.6%)
Green: 1075 (2.6%)
Other: 1175 (2.8%)
Majority: 7954 (19.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14373 (28.5%)
Labour: 28977 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5656 (11.2%)
Referendum: 1480 (2.9%)
Majority: 14604 (28.9%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Mary Creagh (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Alex Story (Conservative) born 1974. Former Olympic rower, now a film and documentary producer. Contested Denton and Reddish in 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91157
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 19.6%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 95.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.4%
Muslim: 2.6%
Full time students: 3.6%
Graduates 16-74: 14.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.9%
Owner-Occupied: 62.7%
Social Housing: 29.8% (Council: 27%, Housing Ass.: 2.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
Just seen Richard’s comment about Hemsworth which he posted while I was writing mine. Richard IS Gloy Plopwell !
Demographics have changed in some former mining seats but they can’t change quickly enough for Richard’s prediction to be even near to being correct. It’s rather reminiscent of the Tories saying in 1983 that they might win the then new Barnsley W & Penistone constituency. In fact Labour’s majority even then was over 8,000 and of course grew substantially thereafter.
Barnaby I think you’ve proved my point.
A Conservative gain in Hemsworth sounds ridiculous (and I certainly am not predicting it) but it’s not totally impossible as it would be in say Peckham or South Shields.
At the last local elections the Conservatives won 3 of the Hemsworth wards and Independents the other 3. How these Independent voters would split and what effect the BNP might have on traditional Labour voters at a 2010 Depression election is difficult to predict.
I doubt anyone thought that the Conservatives could win Barnsley West and Penistone in 1983 although they might perhaps have won the old Penistone if it hadn’t been abolished.
No Richard they couldn’t have won that seat either. The only Toryish element of that seat was Penistone town itself, which was almost totally surrounded by Labour-voting coalfield.
Barnsley W & Penistone had a notional Labour majority of 14,344 in 1979 and was Labour by two to one. I’d be surprised if any Tories thought it was a likely target, but we have Gloy Plopwells in all parties I suppose. I dont think Richard is one, but Hemsworth isnt going anywhere.
“No Richard they couldn’t have won that seat either. The only Toryish element of that seat was Penistone town itself, which was almost totally surrounded by Labour-voting coalfield.”
I must admit to not knowing what the boundaries of the pre 1983 Penistone constituency were. I’d always assumed that is was basically the same as the new Penistone and Stocksbridge constituency.
Although the present day Penistone has moved demographically strongly to the Conservatives during the past generation.
“I must admit to not knowing what the boundaries of the pre 1983 Penistone constituency were. I’d always assumed that is was basically the same as the new Penistone and Stocksbridge constituency.”
I think it was essentially. Labours majority was less than 10,000 in 1979 and the Tories won 32% to 49% for Labour so it was no stronghold of the type of the true coalfield seats further east. On the basis of the swing which occurred in the two sucessor seats in 1983, the Labour margin would likely have been less than 10% and Labour’s vote share possibly down below 40%
Labour only narrowly won Hillsborough in 1983 from the Libs with the Conservatives not far behind in third. I was surprised to see though how atrong Labour were in the Penistone area (Penistone East & West plus Dodworth) back then. At the May 1983 local elections:
Lab 4477
Con 2762
All 2013
Oth 2001
Compared to this year:
Con 3945
Lab 1928
LD 654
Oth 3712
I think Penistone included Darton as well. Looks like it would have been a very close three way marginal in 1983 actually.