Vauxhall
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9301 (21.53%)
Labour: 21498 (49.77%)
Liberal Democrat: 10847 (25.11%)
Green: 708 (1.64%)
English Democrat: 289 (0.67%)
Christian: 200 (0.46%)
Others: 348 (0.81%)
Majority: 10651 (24.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17666 (51.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9132 (26.8%)
Conservative: 5065 (14.9%)
Other: 2194 (6.4%)
Majority: 8534 (25.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 5405 (14.5%)
Labour: 19744 (52.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9767 (26.1%)
Green: 1705 (4.6%)
UKIP: 271 (0.7%)
Other: 461 (1.2%)
Majority: 9977 (26.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4489 (13.4%)
Labour: 19738 (59.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6720 (20.1%)
Green: 1485 (4.4%)
Other: 960 (2.9%)
Majority: 13018 (39%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5942 (15.2%)
Labour: 24920 (63.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6260 (16%)
Other: 1944 (5%)
Majority: 18660 (47.8%)
Boundary changes: Loses part of Coldharbour and Herne Hill to Dulwich and West Norwood.
Profile: An inner-city seat in Lambeth that faces Westminster across the river Thames. It includes Waterloo, Kennington, North Clapham, Vauxhall, Stockwell and parts of Brixton. The north of the seat is dominated by well known landmarks like the London Eye, St Thomas`s hospital, the redeveloped South Bank complex, County Hall, the Imperial War Museum and Lambeth Palace, the official residence of the Archbishop of Canterbury. Close to the river at Vauxhall itself and the Oval at Kennington there is some gentrification due to the proximity to Westminster (it is a popular place for MPs and civil servants to live), but the majority of the seat is far more troubled – crime ridden council estates and grim terraces that struggle with crime and drugs problems. Over a quarter of the population is afro-carribean and there is also a large Portuguese community in the seat, largely around Stockwell.
The Liberal Democrats had advanced in this seat at a local level after 1994, however it swung back towards Labour in 2006. At a Parliamentary level it is solidly Labour having returned Labour MPs since its creation in 1950.
Current MP: Kate Hoey(Labour) born 1946, County Antrim. Educated at Belfast Royal Academy and Ulster College of Physical Education. Contested Dulwich 1983, 1987. First elected as MP for Vauxhall in 1989 by-election. PPS to Frank Field 1997-1998, junior minister in the home office 1998-1999, sports minister 1999-2001. Hoey started out as a left winger – she supported Tony Benn in the 1981 Deputy Leadership election. In more recent years she – along with her former boss Frank Field – is invariably citied as a favourite Labour MP by Conservative activists, she is a euro-sceptic who supports grammar schools in Northern Ireland, supports fox hunting, opposes ID cards and the congestion charge and is a regular rebel against the Labour whip. Chairman of the Countryside Alliance since 2005.
Glyn Chambers (Conservative) Contested Belfast East in 2007 Northern Ireland Assembly elections.Kate Hoey(Labour) born 1946, County Antrim. Educated at Belfast Royal Academy and Ulster College of Physical Education. Contested Dulwich 1983, 1987. First elected as MP for Vauxhall in 1989 by-election. PPS to Frank Field 1997-1998, junior minister in the home office 1998-1999, sports minister 1999-2001. Hoey started out as a left winger – she supported Tony Benn in the 1981 Deputy Leadership election. In more recent years she – along with her former boss Frank Field – is invariably citied as a favourite Labour MP by Conservative activists, she is a euro-sceptic who supports grammar schools in Northern Ireland, supports fox hunting, opposes ID cards and the congestion charge and is a regular rebel against the Labour whip. Chairman of the Countryside Alliance since 2005.
Caroline Pidgeon (Liberal Democrat) born 1972. Educated at Thornden Secondary School and University of Wales Aberystwyth. Former political researcher. Southwark councillor since 1998. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2001. GLA candidate in Lambeth and Southwark 2004. Londonwide member of the GLA since 2008.
Joseph Healy (Green) born Dublin. Contested London in 2004, 2009 European elections.
Jose Navarro (English Democrat) Larna Martin (Christian Party) 
Jeremy Drinkall (Anticapitalists – Workers Power) Teaching assistant.James Kapetanos (Animal Protection)Daniel Lambert (Socialist)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99537
Male: 49.9%
Female: 50.1%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 12.1%
Born outside UK: 34.2%
White: 61.1%
Black: 28.2%
Asian: 3.1%
Mixed: 4.5%
Other: 3.1%
Christian: 60.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 5.3%
Full time students: 8%
Graduates 16-74: 41.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.2%
Owner-Occupied: 28.3%
Social Housing: 50.8% (Council: 36.3%, Housing Ass.: 14.5%)
Privately Rented: 17%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.7%
Labour has got virtually zero chance of losing here – what will be interesting is the local elections on the same day where they will seeking to keep all the Lambeth council seats they won in 2006. My feeling is that they will assuming everyone votes the same way locally and nationally but there may be one or two that change hands I suppose due to local issues.
Lab 18000
LD 11500
Con 6500
Green 3000
Others 3000
My spreadsheet gives a majority of 4000 but i’m sure the Hoey factor will stop it falling this low…
Lab hold 6500
LAB HOLD
ChrisInTheNorth, what do you mean by the ‘Hoey factor’? I’m a Labour supporter but I can’t stand this woman. I know a few people that live in this seat that say she’s a terrible MP. She seems to spend more time addressing rural issues rather than trying to tackle the probelms of this inner-city seat!!!
I have just been reading John Major’s memoirs.
Was the ward he represented between 1968 and 1971 in this constituency? (can’t remember the name of the ward but the book is in my bedroom and I don’t want to wake my wife).
I’m not sure if the Tories have ever regained it, or indeed if it still exists.
It was Ferndale ward which is in this constituency and would have been part of the Brixton seat at the time. The ward still exists and is a Labour banker as it was at all other elections escept 1968 – they have never lost it other than before or since and it usually voted Labour over Tory by 2 or 3 to 1
John Major was elected by a margin of 70 votes in Ferndale in 1968, (a 3 seat ward):
Mrs JE Langley: Con – 1025
GRI Allnut: Con – 1002
JR Major: Con – 991
LGM Davis: Lab – 921
Mrs JM Dodson: Lab – 892
DJ Packer: Lab – 863
htttp://data.london.gov.uk/documents/LBCE_1968-5-9.pdf
John Major was an ultra-wet one-nation Tory during his time on Lambeth council, where he served opposite the young Ken Livingstone.
Livingstone deeply admired the work Major did on improving housing conditions in and around Brixton.
Livingstone did not encounter John Major again until he was elected to the house of commons in 1987. He was astonished at Major’s transformation from his days as a one-nation wet in Lambeth to his then image as a dry Thatcherite. Livingstone asked Major “what the hell is a decent person like you doing in this government of reactionary wankers?”
‘He was astonished at Major’s transformation from his days as a one-nation wet in Lambeth to his then image as a dry Thatcherite.’
John Major was neither a wet nor a Thatcherite. He wasn’t really an ideologue at all – but a pragmatist who was the just what the Tories needed after more than 10 years with Thatcher – the biggest idealist at all
In fact it’s astonishing that he was portrayed as the Thatcherite candidate in the 1990 leadership election. Granted, he was slightly to the Right of Heseltine and Hurd but he had never done anything in his career to suggest that he was the true heir to Thatcher
Thatcher was a radical – not a reactionary – and most of her cabinets – even towards the end – always contained a healthy pressence of wets – far more than in the current government
“John Major was neither a wet nor a Thatcherite. He wasn’t really an ideologue at all – but a pragmatist who was the just what the Tories needed after more than 10 years with Thatcher – the biggest idealist at all
In fact it’s astonishing that he was portrayed as the Thatcherite candidate in the 1990 leadership election. Granted, he was slightly to the Right of Heseltine and Hurd but he had never done anything in his career to suggest that he was the true heir to Thatcher”
Major became Thatcher’s chosen heir after around 1988, after John Moore had crashed and burned. He most certainly was seen as an avid Thatcherite at that time, not least by the lady herself. Otherwise he would have never been Thatcher’s own preferred successor, and would never have won the leadership on the back of the block vote of the right and centre right of the party.
You’re right that Major was hiding his true orientation – if indeed he really had one – in order to become Prime Minister. Major was a dishonest pragmatist rather than an honest one like Heath, who was at least always honest about what he believed in.
Christian – Kate Hoey proved very popular. I think she is because she’s principled, whether you agree with her or not. I can imagine she’s more popular amongst Tory than Labour members though.
Quite a large increase in the Conservative vote here – considering it is in Lambeth,
and with a Labour MP who is quite popular with Tories.
Yes and should she decide to stand in the new cross border seat, Ms. Hoey will almost certainly win. She’ll consolidate the Labour vote in the Lambeth wards and what’s left of it in the Wandsworth wards but she’s also exactly the sort of Labour candidate that can convince soft Tory/centrist voters to back her. Current Battersea MP Jane Ellison seems likely to stand in this seat but I really can’t see her winning if she’s up against Hoey.
‘Current Battersea MP Jane Ellison seems likely to stand in this seat but I really can’t see her winning if she’s up against Hoey.’
Hoey would certainly be the clear favourite but it might be a bit more competitive that one might assume as Jane Ellison is very much on the left fringes of the Tory party so might be able to convince moderate Labour and Lib Dem voters to back her
I think she’s even a pro-European – a rarity in today’s Tory Party
Yes, that is correct. She was even a campaigner against Thatcherism so she’s very much of the one nation mould.
What you say may well be true regarding her ability to convince moderate Labour/Lib Dem voters to back her but I’m not convinced she would win over enough of them to take the seat.
I would vote for Kate Hoey over this Ellison woman
Surely Jane Ellison will choose to fight Clapham Common, which contains her best wards and is a notionally Conservative seat. No other Conservative MP has a claim over Clapham Common and would be a much safer bet than trying to overturn a notional Labour majority of around 5,000.
“Yes, that is correct. She was even a campaigner against Thatcherism so she’s very much of the one nation mould. ”
I was very dissapointed by Jane Ellison’s performance since the election based upon what I have heard of her so far, but I was not aware of that Barnaby.
It seems that despite the party working so hard to get a Tory MP elected in Battersea over the last 3 elections, we have ended up with another Labour MP by the backdoor.
I’m afraid I join Pete in saying that I think I’d prefer Hoey to Ellison. Certainly she should not be adopted for the Clapham seat. Let her try her luck in Battersea.
Its even more striking when you compare her stance to that of the Tories on Wandsworth council who are pretty much classic thatcherites. I wonder if she’s had some interesting conflicts with her local colleagues?
Shaun
“I’m afraid I join Pete in saying that I think I’d prefer Hoey to Ellison. Certainly she should not be adopted for the Clapham seat. Let her try her luck in Battersea.”
Whether she is adopted in Clapham Common is a decision for local Tory members.
Wandsworth may be quite a radical Tory council but its Tory MPs are nearly always pretty wet. Think of Bowis, Mellor and Greening as well as Ellison. I personally think she will get the Clapham nomination if she tries.
I wasn’t aware that Bowis and Mellor were wet but then I’m too young to remember that era. I suspected that Greening is one as well as she’s never struck me as particularly right-wing. I wonder why the Wandsworth Tory MPs have been more moderate than the council? That doesn’t appear to be the case in somewhere like Bromley where both its MPs and council are equally right-wing (mores than Wandsworth it seems).
“I wasn’t aware that Bowis and Mellor were wet but then I’m too young to remember that era.”
Both were dripping wet, especially on social issues. Mellor was a “blue chip” who was instrumental in knifing Mrs Thatcher. He quit the Tories in disgust when IDS became leader.
“That doesn’t appear to be the case in somewhere like Bromley where both its MPs and council are equally right-wing (mores than Wandsworth it seems).”
Actually Bromley has a long history of electing wet Tory MPs as well, although there are some exceptions. Undisputedly wet recent MPs in Bromley have included John Hunt, Roger Sims, Jacqui Lait, Philip Goodhart, Harold Macmillan, Pat Hornsby Smith and current MP Bob Neill. They certainly outnumber the right wingers quite heavily. The only Thacherite Bromley MPs I can think of were Piers Merchant, Eric Forth and Ivor Stanbrook. Bob Stewart is shaping up as a right-winger too. John Horam, despite being ex-SDP, is admittedly hard to characterise as a wet.
I thought Bowis and Mellor were both quite right-wing on economic policy. Of course representing a London constituency means they’re probably going to be more liberal on social issues.
“I thought Bowis and Mellor were both quite right-wing on economic policy. Of course representing a London constituency means they’re probably going to be more liberal on social issues.”
Not sure about Bowis. You’re wrong about Mellor though, he was leftish on economics too. Partly for that reason he was left out of the cabinet until Major became PM.
In the 1980s and 1990s there were plenty of London Tory MPs with very socially conservative views. Just off the top of my head I can think of Terry Dicks, Ivor Stanbrook, Norman Tebbit, Harry Greenway, Olga Maitland….I’m sure the list would go on if I thought about it for longer
Thanks HH. I should have said “non-outer London MPs”. Most of the socially conservative London Tory MPs represented seats on the edges of the Greater London. The only one in that list not in that category is Harry Greenway.
Olga Maitland declared for Ken Clarke in the 2001 leadership contest, which I found slightly surprising,
but maybe for more electoral reasons.
I supported Ken Clarke myself in 1997 (and in 2001 when we had a vote as Party members).
I have strongly opposed the Euro (aswell as any common tax policies and excessive regulation from Brussels) but took the risk that the Conservative Party would never support the Euro, even with him as leader,
and that we’d benefit from his credibility as a rather successful ex Chancellor, and hence rebuild support more quickly.
I was not a supporter of William Hague at the time, although recognise his qualities now.
Despite my support for Clarke, I have latterly considered that
despite the crushing defeat in 2001, the Conservative Party may have served a vital role in keeping us out of the Euro by opposing it,
as if it had compromised, New Labour might have found a way of getting us in.
I don’t know a lot about Jane Ellison, but don’t agree with her on the Euro,
[or on Mrs Thatcher (if these reports are true)].
Mrs Thatcher rescued this country – literally no one else would have achieved what she did.
Even so, I’d ask other Tories to have a degree of tolerance towards who take different views on the Euro. We’re a big party and have always had different views on it.
But I certainly hope we never join it,
and we’ve got to be very firm that the City of London isn’t stitched up with taxes and regulations to undermine it.
I suspect Jane Ellison would go for the Clapham seat.
I would agree with Joe about the need for a greater degree of tolerance within the Conservative Party, whether you are Jane Ellison or Norman Tebbit. It is a broad church, and not to recognise this simply plays into the hands of the opposition.
I am not only strongly against the Euro, but think we should be granted a referendum on the question of remaining a member of the EU. But I would still vote for Jane Ellison if I were to live in her constituency because we are effectively voting for the party rather than the candidate.
The Tories would not have won in 2001 with Ken Clarke as leader, but I am sure he would have put up a much more formidable performance for the reasons Joe states. I doubt he could have introduced the euro anyway.
I met someone two weeks ago from her constituency and they were quite impressed with her.
Yes I think I would almost always support official Conservative candidates,
regardless of them being to the left or to right of myself.
It’s worth remembering that Jane Ellison won at an open to all selection over Louise Bagshawe and Sam Gyimah, although I’m aware that some Tory councillors present didn’t vote for her. Can’t imagine who they voted for in a rather “wettish” offer.
Battersea has a much younger educated to graduate level electorate than average and, although obviously some of them vote Tory, I do n’t think a right-wing, anti-Europe candidate would do well.
“Battersea has a much younger educated to graduate level electorate than average and, although obviously some of them vote Tory, I do n’t think a right-wing, anti-Europe candidate would do well”
I have to say, I’m afraid I think thats largely nonsense. Voters will notice the overall culture of a party as represented by its national leadership in the years up to the poll; but they almost never know what their local candidate believes-whether they are a raving right winger or a complete wet. It is irrelvant to most of them anyway.
A raving right wing candidate would be able to hold Battersea as well as any wet. they would do so for as long as the people of the constituency believe the national party leadership more closely represents their views than the other parties. As we saw in the 1997 election, it matters not what wing of the party you came from.
I know that this is going to be an unwelcome truth for many people who still like to maintain the fiction that voters elect a candidate as an individual rather than because of their party label, but I’m afraid thats the way it is.
I agree with the comments about the Conservative Partys obsession with Europe. I am completely anti-Europe but I respect that there are some benefits to the EU and therefore respect those Tories who want us to be a part of the union. We need to stop making a big deal out of Europe and concentrate on repairing our country.
I do think certain candidates in certain places can make a difference in certain areas. For example in Romford Andrew Rosindell is so right wing that he keeps the BNP vote down in that seat. I’m not so sure that the Tory majority would be so high there with an Ellison type Tory. Conversely sticking someone like Rosindell in Battersea would definately have an effect on the Tory vote there and would help Labour massively.
‘I wasn’t aware that Bowis and Mellor were wet but then I’m too young to remember that era. I suspected that Greening is one as well as she’s never struck me as particularly right-wing. I wonder why the Wandsworth Tory MPs have been more moderate than the council?’
David Mellor wasn’t especially associated with one-nation Toryism whilst in Parliament but he’s definitely from the moderate wing of the party whereas John Bowis, like Ellison, is a classic wet.
And not all Wandsworth councillors are radical right wingers – ex-East Surrey MP Peter Ainsworth probably being the best example of a moderate on board
I never thought of Greening as a wet, but Hemelig is right in citing the likes of Goodhart, Lait, Hunt, Sims, Neil and of course Ted Hreath and Cyril Townsend as one-nation representatives of the outer fringes of South East London
Of course one can always cite right wingers like James Brokenshire, Derek Conway, David Evernett and Eric Forth – arguably the most right wing Tory elected to Parliament since the war – but they are very much the exception as opposed to the rule
If I had the vote and it was Ellison v Hoey I’d certainly vote for the former but her more logocal plan would nbe to cointest the Clapham Common seat
Shaun – you gave me credit (or discredit) for remarks I hadn’t made. I hadn’t contributed to the discussion of the wetness of local Tory MPs up to now.
As it happens I met Jane Ellison on polling day in the Tottenham by-election; she was visiting the polling stations even though many didn’t have Tory tellers like that particular one. i remember she was wearing a Spurs brooch & thinking “bet she didn’t wear that in Barnsley when she stood there”. No doubt she is now aligned with either Chelsea or Fulham FC. I agree that Bowis, Ellison & Mellor are all figures not associated with the Right of the Tory Party, but I’m not sure I’d include Greening in that; she strikes me as being fairly right-wing on most matters. H.Hemmelig mentions John Hunt; I think it’s fair to say he was a very influential figure in repudiating Powellite views on race in the mid-to-late 60s, but then Powell regained some of the ascendancy in terms of public opinion thereafter.
‘but then Powell regained some of the ascendancy in terms of public opinion thereafter.’
How so?
If the past 40 years have proved anything it’s surely that Enoch Powell was completely wrong.
There haven’t been rivers of bloods – despite the best efforts of the likes of the BNP, Muslims Agains Crusades, the EDL, Al-Muhajiroun and all these other scumbag organisations that attempt to stir up racial hatred – and the UK in general has fairly harmonial race relations
That’s why I don’t understand all these cretins who say Enoch Powell got it right
He didn’t – he got it wrong
What I’m saying Tim is that Tories like John Hunt contributed to a fairly tolerant consensus in the period 1965-8 which manifested itself in the 1966 election results, in which Peter Griffiths was defeated & Powell’s majority was halved, but one has to note the strong Powellite influence in some of the 1970 results which saw seats in his sub-region swing particularly strongly to the Conservatives.
Thanks for the clarification Barnaby – I thought you meant that today’s consensus was that Enoch Powell got it right – something often cited by people as far ranging as Nigel Hastilow and Eric Clapton
I don’t think one can either say that Enoch Powell got it 100% right or 100% wrong. It’s true that race relations are relatively good most of the time but there have also been a number of race riots during the last 40 years and in certain areas race relations are not at all good.
‘I don’t think one can either say that Enoch Powell got it 100% right or 100% wrong.’
Of course not
There have been tensions and some of what Powell said has come to fruition, but I was referring more to his specific point that there would be ‘rivers of blood’ – which of course there hasn’t been
It’s ironic in many ways how Powell has been portrayed as the unacceptable face of Toryism – because comments made by other MPs like Peter Griffiths ‘If you want a n***** for a neighbour, vote Liberal or Labour’ were far more inflammatory and deserved far greater condemnation than that waged at Powell
“There have been tensions and some of what Powell said has come to fruition, but I was referring more to his specific point that there would be ‘rivers of blood’ – which of course there hasn’t been”
You’re not familiar with the concept of metaphor then Tim?
Apart from which he never used the phrase ‘rivers of blood’
“Shaun – you gave me credit (or discredit) for remarks I hadn’t made. I hadn’t contributed to the discussion of the wetness of local Tory MPs up to now”
Ha, yes you’re right. I was seeing things. But you have to understand, Barnaby, you are a guru for many of us
On the Powell argument, I think many on the left have consistantly misrepresented what Powell prophesised. He was merely saying that if something was not done to reconcile the voter and immigration then it would result in the rivers of blood which as Pete tells us, was a phrase he never actually used but twhich has become synonomous with him.
It was a wake up call for government of the day, ensured that something was done, and ensured that those who were ill-at-ease with immigration issues were neutralised through the mainstream party system rather than going to the far right.
If not for Enoch Powell’s intervention, I wonder whether the far right National Front and then the BNP would hav had success much earlier in this ocuntry?