The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Vale of Glamorgan

2010 Results:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.95%)
Liberal Democrat: 7403 (15.21%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.48%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.14%)
Green: 457 (0.94%)
Christian: 236 (0.48%)
Majority: 4307 (8.85%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19081 (40.9%)
Conservative: 17416 (37.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6139 (13.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2491 (5.3%)
Other: 1578 (3.4%)
Majority: 1664 (3.6%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17673 (37.3%)
Labour: 19481 (41.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6140 (13%)
Plaid Cymru: 2423 (5.1%)
UKIP: 840 (1.8%)
Other: 767 (1.6%)
Majority: 1808 (3.8%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 15824 (35%)
Labour: 20524 (45.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5521 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2867 (6.3%)
UKIP: 448 (1%)
Majority: 4700 (10.4%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 18522 (34.4%)
Labour: 29054 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4945 (9.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1393 (2.6%)
Majority: 10532 (19.5%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Alun Cairns (Conservative) born 1970. Educated at Ysgol Ddwyeithog Ystalyfera. Prior to his election worked for Lloyds TSB. Member of the Welsh Assembly for the South Wales West region since 1999. Contested Gower 1997, Vale of Glamorgan 2005. Temporarily suspended as the candidate during 2008 while the party investigated remarks he made about Italians.

2010 election candidates:
portraitAlun Cairns (Conservative) born 1970. Educated at Ysgol Ddwyeithog Ystalyfera. Prior to his election worked for Lloyds TSB. Member of the Welsh Assembly for the South Wales West region since 1999. Contested Gower 1997, Vale of Glamorgan 2005. Temporarily suspended as the candidate during 2008 while the party investigated remarks he made about Italians.
portraitAlana Davies (Labour) Educated at Bridgend Girls Grammar School and the Open University. Retired lecturer. Bridgend councillor since 1999.
portraitEluned Parrott (Liberal Democrat) Born 1974, Abergavenny. Educated at St Peters School, Wolverhampton and Cardiff University. Community engagement manager.
portraitIan James Johnson (Plaid Cymru) Born Cardiff. Educated at Barry Boys Comprehensive and UCL. Parliamentary researcher.
portraitRhodri Thomas (Green)
portraitKevin Mahoney (UKIP) Born 1959. Educated at Sully school and Stanwell. Former gas engineering supervisor, now working for John Bufton MEP. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 2007 Welsh elections, Wales in 2009 European elections.
portraitJohn Harrold (Christian Party)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 94618
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 24.4%
Over 60: 21.4%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 97.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 72.6%
Full time students: 3.1%
Graduates 16-74: 20.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.8%
Owner-Occupied: 77%
Social Housing: 13.5% (Council: 9.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. It will be replaced by a new guide in 2013, once the fate of the boundary review is finally settled.