Vale of Glamorgan
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.95%)
Liberal Democrat: 7403 (15.21%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.48%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.14%)
Green: 457 (0.94%)
Christian: 236 (0.48%)
Majority: 4307 (8.85%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19081 (40.9%)
Conservative: 17416 (37.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6139 (13.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2491 (5.3%)
Other: 1578 (3.4%)
Majority: 1664 (3.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17673 (37.3%)
Labour: 19481 (41.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6140 (13%)
Plaid Cymru: 2423 (5.1%)
UKIP: 840 (1.8%)
Other: 767 (1.6%)
Majority: 1808 (3.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15824 (35%)
Labour: 20524 (45.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5521 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2867 (6.3%)
UKIP: 448 (1%)
Majority: 4700 (10.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18522 (34.4%)
Labour: 29054 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4945 (9.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1393 (2.6%)
Majority: 10532 (19.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alun Cairns (Conservative) born 1970. Educated at Ysgol Ddwyeithog Ystalyfera. Prior to his election worked for Lloyds TSB. Member of the Welsh Assembly for the South Wales West region since 1999. Contested Gower 1997, Vale of Glamorgan 2005. Temporarily suspended as the candidate during 2008 while the party investigated remarks he made about Italians.
Alun Cairns (Conservative) born 1970. Educated at Ysgol Ddwyeithog Ystalyfera. Prior to his election worked for Lloyds TSB. Member of the Welsh Assembly for the South Wales West region since 1999. Contested Gower 1997, Vale of Glamorgan 2005. Temporarily suspended as the candidate during 2008 while the party investigated remarks he made about Italians.
Alana Davies (Labour) Educated at Bridgend Girls Grammar School and the Open University. Retired lecturer. Bridgend councillor since 1999.
Eluned Parrott (Liberal Democrat) Born 1974, Abergavenny. Educated at St Peters School, Wolverhampton and Cardiff University. Community engagement manager. 
Ian James Johnson (Plaid Cymru) Born Cardiff. Educated at Barry Boys Comprehensive and UCL. Parliamentary researcher.
Rhodri Thomas (Green)
Kevin Mahoney (UKIP) Born 1959. Educated at Sully school and Stanwell. Former gas engineering supervisor, now working for John Bufton MEP. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 2007 Welsh elections, Wales in 2009 European elections.John Harrold (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94618
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 24.4%
Over 60: 21.4%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 97.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 72.6%
Full time students: 3.1%
Graduates 16-74: 20.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.8%
Owner-Occupied: 77%
Social Housing: 13.5% (Council: 9.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%
I think it is about a third but that is a pretty rough guess without figures to hand. I think likewise in the old Barry seat, the eponymous town represented a minority and was always outvoted by more affluent rural and suburban terrain
Barry isn’t a typical valley town, given that it isn’t in a valley. Labour’s monolithic strength in the valleys partly came from the isolation and consequent close-knit community of the towns.
Barry was a seaside resort as well as being pretty industrial. But the industry was different, being based more on shipping and chemicals than coal, and it has consequently fared better than the mines and steel plants in the valleys.
Barry is now the only place in the UK where silicones are still manufactured (the American conglomerate Dow Corning have a huge chemical works there).
Cheers for the response guys – I always assumed Batrry would have accounted for at least a half of the electorate – a third explains VOG’s (and the Barry seat before that) voting habits better
By-election last night on Barry Town Council (Vale of Glamorgan) – Labour gain from Conservatives:
Labour 562 (up 7%),
Con 321 (down 22%),
Independent 244 (19%)
Plaid Cymru 151 (down 3%).
Between 1931 and 1935 the electorate of the Llanduff & Barry constituency increased from 57,518 to 73,693. There must have been a lot of development in the area between those dates to account for such a large increase.
The figure I have for 1931 (in F.W.S. Craig) is 67,680 – for 1935 the same as yours. There was fairly rapid growth noneltheless – the electorate increased from 63,802 in 1929 to 96,106 in 1945 while most of the seats in Glamorganshire (including the Cardiff seats) saw little growth. It did of course include many of the suburban areas of Cardiff which are now in the Cardiff North and Cardiff West seats – Llandaff itself of course and also areas like Whitchurch and Ely
Maybe a mistake in the Times’s 1931 figures. I need to get hold of an FWS Craig book as well.
Vale of Glamorgan 2015 most likely
Lab 40.9 (+8)
Con 40 (-1.8)
PC 7.4 (+1.9)
LD 7.1 (-8.1)
Others 4.6
Turnout 68.1 (-1.2)
Labour will do quite well in Wales in 2015 but they won’t make more than 4 net gains.
Worth thinking about the 1989 by election here and relating it to the changed national political circumstances of today.
”Labour will do quite well in Wales in 2015 but they won’t make more than 4 net gains.”
That may well be the case- This, Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Arfon would IMO be the most likely to go Labour.
In another Plaid-held seat with Labour in a not distant second place is Carmarthen East and Dinefwr- But after the Plaid vote fell by a very long way following Price’s departure I would say there is a good chance they might hold on there.
Then, in other Tory-Lab marginals in Wales- Such as Clwyd West, Aberconwy, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire and Preseli Pembrokeshire- I would expect Labour to run the Tories rather close in all four- Don’t know A Cairns if you would agree with me here but I don’t think they’ll quite be able to gain any of the above four at the next election.
Id be suprised if labour won here or run the tories close in preseli pembrokeshire both pembrokeshire seats are trending tory
Again I think the prediction is asking a lot of labour