Comments on: Vale of Clwyd

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 07:23:13 +0000

And I’ve just noticed your kind comment Andy. Thanks! Not a bad effort considering that I haven’t been to this seat since 1979.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Mon, 31 May 2010 00:11:24 +0000

Just noticed the superb pre-election commentary from Barnaby.

By: Judith Bray

Judith Bray — Sat, 22 May 2010 13:32:01 +0000

Labour had nothing to be positive about.

By: Judith Bray

Judith Bray — Wed, 19 May 2010 20:54:46 +0000

It was neck and neck up to seven days prior to Polling Day.

Then all three of the other main parties were out in force delivering new leaflets.

By: MJ

MJ — Wed, 19 May 2010 19:52:01 +0000

Mr Wright,

“Labour ran a negative campaign”?

Yes, I remember now, they took two major billboard poster sites in the town and ran ads attacking the other party’s Leader constantly for months.

Oh, hang on – that was your party. Billboards don’t come cheap and you were changing them every other week, usually with a negative mesage.

By: Matt Wright

Matt Wright — Tue, 11 May 2010 19:23:10 +0000

Labour ran an extremely negative campaign designed to scare the living daylights out of pensioners, people on benefits and public sector workers. They did this on a large scale with a lot of direct mail and the help of the Unions and threw a big final effort at it to GOTV key core Labour areas. This added to an incumbency factor centred on the Labour MP managed to hold ground but we halved the majority and increased our vote so it’s now a true marginal of 2,500.

By: Neil Turner

Neil Turner — Sun, 09 May 2010 19:10:17 +0000

Not so fast Barnaby. If you look at the results in Wales Labour just about held on. Places such as Swansea West, Newport East, Gower, Cardiff West and South, Delyn, Bridgend and even Alyn and Deeside are not such safe places for Labour next time around.

What I will say in Brown’s defence is that his energy after the final debate saved Labour from a drubbing. I reckon that Brown’s campaign in the final few days could have saved up to 500,000 Labour votes. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks and months

By: Neil Turner

Neil Turner — Sun, 09 May 2010 19:08:54 +0000

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 09 May 2010 16:56:26 +0000

I can comment on this with my head held high as I never gave a prediction for this seat, only advised on its former boundaries and the status of St. Asaph so I’m alright!

I have to admit that I thought it would be closer than it was eventually. Chris Ruane has a real support base in Rhyl and this clearly helps.

I think demographic change hasn’t helped the Tories in this seat. Although towns like Denbigh and Prestatyn and Rhyl have always had strong Labour votes, the downward move of Rhyl has meant that a lot of formerly Tory voters have moved out. I don’t think anyone would quibble with me when I say that Rhyl is an extremely depressed town (albeit in the process of regenerating). A similar demographic and voting change is probably visible in Blackpool (locals have always said Rhyl is like a mini-Blackpool). Lots of the people now living in Rhyl are working-class voters from the North-West of England with very Labour tendancies. There aren’t masses of swing voters here anymore.

The voters who no longer choose to live in Rhyl live in places like Abergele and Kinmel Bay, which are some of the fastest growing communities in Wales and are in Clwyd West. This saw a good Conservative swing, along with Aberconwy.

This analysis might seem simplistic and I don’t want to take anything awayd from Labour here, they did well, but I think it’s a fair reflection.

By: markL

markL — Sun, 09 May 2010 16:29:43 +0000

Ive always said labour would hold this seat, I thought it would be closer than 2500 votes though! I think Chris Ruane must have certainly built up a personal vote. The sheer number of Labour posters in the gardens of large detached homes made me think the Tories would struggle here.