Vale of Clwyd
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.26%)
Liberal Democrat: 4472 (12.59%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.82%)
BNP: 827 (2.33%)
UKIP: 515 (1.45%)
Others: 127 (0.36%)
Majority: 2509 (7.06%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15005 (46.1%)
Conservative: 10279 (31.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3846 (11.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2328 (7.1%)
Other: 1116 (3.4%)
Majority: 4726 (14.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10206 (31.6%)
Labour: 14875 (46%)
Liberal Democrat: 3820 (11.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2309 (7.1%)
UKIP: 375 (1.2%)
Other: 728 (2.3%)
Majority: 4669 (14.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10418 (32.2%)
Labour: 16179 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 3058 (9.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2300 (7.1%)
UKIP: 391 (1.2%)
Majority: 5761 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11662 (29.8%)
Labour: 20617 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3425 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2301 (5.9%)
Referendum: 834 (2.1%)
Other: 293 (0.7%)
Majority: 8955 (22.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Ruane(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Matt Wright (Conservative) Contested Vale of Clwyd in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.Chris Ruane(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Paul Penlington (Liberal Democrat)Caryl Wyn Jones (Plaid Cymru) Tom Turner (UKIP)Ian Si`Ree (BNP) Mike Butler (Alliance for Green Socialism) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70884
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 26%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 15.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 72.4%
Social Housing: 13.3% (Council: 9.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 11.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.7%
It was neck and neck up to seven days prior to Polling Day.
Then all three of the other main parties were out in force delivering new leaflets.
Labour had nothing to be positive about.
Just noticed the superb pre-election commentary from Barnaby.
And I’ve just noticed your kind comment Andy. Thanks! Not a bad effort considering that I haven’t been to this seat since 1979.
Which seat was Denbigh in from 1983-1997?
Clwyd South West.
Thanks Matt
I do wonder how the safe Conservative seat of Denbigh became the Labour stronghold (and any seat won by the Labour Party in the 1980s meritrs that description) of Clwyd South West- despite the boundaries being very similar
Are there really that many Conservative votes on the North Wales coast between Llandudno and Rhyl
The reason is that the areas brought in from Wrexham are overwhelmingly more Labour than Conservative, such as Chirk, Ruabon & I think Rhosllanerchrugog (or is it Brymbo? or both?). None of these areas were I think in the Denbigh constituency which thus had far fewer working-class voters than SW Clwyd, let alone the even more Labour current division of South Clwyd which lacks some of the more Tory parts of the former seat which went to help form West Clwyd in 1997.
looks like it was Brymbo that was included, not Rhosllanerchrugog. No doubt someone who knows the seat better than I do could confirm or deny that.
Yes, it was the addition of Labour areas formerly included in Wrexham that helped tip the balance towards Labour and the departure of the Conservative areas of Colwyn Bay etc. I think that in some ways the boundary changes in the area in 1983 made successor seats harder to identify.
I remember in the HTV Wales Yearbooks, they always used to put Clwyd North West down as the successor seat to Flintshire West and Clwyd SW as the successor to Denbigh. Geographically that mightn’t have been far from the truth but population-wise, much of Denbigh went to form Clwyd NW and Clwyd SW got most of its population from the fringes of Wrexham. Flintshire West went fairly evenly to Delyn and Clwyd NW, perhaps a bit more to the latter than the former.
Although they never lost, Denbigh wasn’t an overwhelmingly Conservative seat for much of its time. They (or Nat Libs) won it usually with a vote in the high 30s or low 40s, with the Liberals consistently on about 30% and Labour around 20% (the latter two pretty much swapped places in terms of vote share towards the end).
Thanks Barnaby and Matt
I always thought Clywd South West an odd Labour seat being largely rural and based around market towns like Ruithin and Denbigh (neither of which look like your traditional Labour-voting town), although i’m not familiar with the places you mention – Chirk, Ruabon etc – and didn’t realise they accounted for that many voters
They’ve messed around with the county boarders in Wales – Rhyl and Prestatyn were both in the Flintshire West seat – because both towns were in Flintshire – rather than Denbighshire as they are now.
I’m all for bringing back the tradional counties but the people responsaible for it should at least get it right
In reply to Matt above, I get the feeling that some people who had told the tory canvassers that they were going to vote tory, actually changed their minds in the last 5 or 6 days.
LD PPC Paul Penlington has defected to Labour.
It is not correct to describe him as PPC. He WAS the candidate last year, but he wasnt going to be the candidate in this years Assembly election.
Difficult to say who’s going to win this seat in the Welsh Assembly elections. Labour are defending a majority of 92 votes against the Tories. Both parties are likely to improve their showing in Wales in general since 2007.
My prediction for Vale of Clwyd.
Lab 45
Con 37
PC 12
LD 6
‘Difficult to say who’s going to win this seat in the Welsh Assembly elections. Labour are defending a majority of 92 votes against the Tories.’
I thought the Tories might haved sneaked this seat in the general election but they don’t seem to be the force they once were in this part of the world
It’s not hard to explain why a place like Rhyl, which compares unfavourably to seaside towns like Hastings, might have fallen out of love with the party, but you would have expected the Tories to have recovered sufficiently in towns like Prestatyn and St Asaph and the surrounding countrytside
I don’t know if Matt Wright is contesting the assembly seat again (he was Tory candidate in 2007 and for the general election in 2010) but it’s hard to imagine he’ll be aided by the fact his party is currently in government (as government’s seldom do well in these types of election)
If the Tories can’t win here with an unpopular Labour Party in power it’s hard to imagine they’ll fare better now they no longer have that advantage
‘My prediction for Vale of Clwyd.
Lab 45
Con 37
PC 12
LD 6′
That sounds about right, at least with regards to the Labour and Tory share
‘Difficult to say who’s going to win this seat in the Welsh Assembly elections. Labour are defending a majority of 92 votes against the Tories.’
If Labour don’t win here, it will probably be a very bad night for them nationally.
In terms of knife edge seats in 2007, I thought Vale of Glamorgan was more interesting as the Tories took it in 2010 (the only Welsh constituency won by Labour in 2007 but not in 2010)
Plaid Cymru have now got a big advertising hoarding attacking Labour on a prominent poster site in Denbigh. How many other hoarding sites in other parts of Wales have Plaid Cymru booked in the final week.
The final result may turn on turnout.
Will more people want to vote in the referendum than want to vote for the Welsh assembly?
V of C is now a marginal seat, and the result is likely to be very close.
‘The final result may turn on turnout.
Will more people want to vote in the referendum than want to vote for the Welsh assembly?
V of C is now a marginal seat, and the result is likely to be very close.’
Surely the real action is next door in Clwyd West? Perhaps it could go 2% either way?
Perhaps it could go 2% either way in Vale of Clwyd as well.
Clwyd South could also become marginal, because of the resignation of the previous AM.
There is nothing in the polls to suggest that either this seat or S Clwyd will be marginal today. On what basis do you make the suggestion? Even the most pessimistic polls from Labour’s point of view suggest a hold by a wide margin in both seats. This is the second consecutive election where posters here have appeared to suggest some sort of special circumstances in North-East Wales, without explaining what they are. It just didn’t happen like that last year, and why it is likely this year isn’t very obvious to me, for one. LAB HOLD is my confident prediction.
The Labour majority in this seat is 92 from four years ago.
The Conservative candidate came very close to winning 12 months ago.
If the electorate recognise that this election is a two horse race between Labour and Conservative, then there may be tactical voting by Lib Dem and by PC followers.
‘The Conservative candidate came very close to winning 12 months ago.’
12 months ago the country was governed by an unpopular Labour government who had been in office for 13 years
If the Tories were unable to win in then – it seems implausible to expect them to do better now they are in government
As I said in a previous post, outside Rhyl I don’t see a bounty of Labour votes in the other larger towns like Prestatyn or St Asaph, but Labour have been dominant here for the last 15 years and whilst the last election showed it certainly can;t be considered a safe seat I think the Tories best chance was last year
Very few Plaid voters would vote tactically for the Tories anyway. Indeed, there is some evidence that Labour has benefited from tactical voting from Welsh-speaking voters in (mainly) rural areas in Clwyd in recent years, which may explain the Tories’ failure to win West Clwyd until 2005. LD voters are somewhat more likely to vote Conservative but I’d contend that their votes will disproportionately go to Labour today in many parts of the country.
“Clwyd South could also become marginal, because of the resignation of the previous AM”
I wouldn’t think it would that much difference. As I understand she is simply just retiring. The previous MP Martyn Jones stood down at the last GE, and Labour held it quite comfortably.
Labour hold in Clwyd South and I wouldn’t rule out Plaid in 2nd place!
In the last hour, it has started raining in the Vale of Clwyd which may prevent many people going to vote.
I agree with Barnaby that this is an almost certain Labour hold.
The one thing that has yet to be tested, however, is whether people vote more on Welsh issues (in which case they may vote against the Lab/PC coalition) or UK issues (in which case the Tories and LibDems would suffer)
It will be a photo finish.
‘Very few Plaid voters would vote tactically for the Tories anyway…LD voters are somewhat more likely to vote Conservative ‘
I would have thought the opposite to be the case
Plaid might be to the Left of the three main parties, but I would be surprised in their vote is
Like the SNP in Scotland, they appeal to those on the nationalist Right, who would never vote Lib Dem or Labour
Most polls show the Lib Dems to have lost almost half of their support since the election – and about 90% of it has gone to Labour
I would expect this to be reflected in tonight’s poll
Labour hold with an increased majority
There is at least one big Plaid Cymru advertising hoarding in this constituency saying “Do not reward Labour for failure”
You predict that Labour may just hold on with an increased majority, That still leaves it close, Labour could hold with a majority of 93.
erm, bryn, how did your predictions of it being a photo finish, very close, 2% either way pan out ?
Everyone WAS taking photographs, particularly at the finish.
Seashells still pressed firmy to ears, then ?
My confidence not entirely misplaced it seems.
Labour’s vote here was up 14% in the Welsh Assembly elections and I think their success here is yet another indication of how far this seat has swung from the Tories.
It is hard to believe that in the notional result from ’92 this seat had a Conservative majority of 2,000-odd. I think that Labour must have got the vote in Rhyl out massively, and they had good reason to turn out as many will be disproportionately hit by the cuts. There was a story in yesterday’s Daily Post on statistics from Rhyl regarding alcoholism, obesity, illiteracy, teenage pregnancy etc. and the results (even for me as someone who grew up near Rhyl) were truly shocking and utterly lamentable.
The contrast between the great result for Labour here and the bad ones next door in Clwyd West and Aberconwy is striking. 20 years ago the three main towns in these seats (Rhyl, Colwyn Bay, and Llandudno) would have behaved pretty equally in voting terms. Now the latter two still vote in similar ways (Tory in 2011), but the former has become completely divorced electorally from the other two. This can only be due to extreme demographic change.
However, many of those with social problems mightn’t vote and I think a substantial part of Labour’s excellent growth here is part of the Merseyside effect and poorer pensioners moving from that area to retire and bringing their anti-Tory voting habits with them. Colwyn Bay and Llandudno still get substantial numbers of retirees from nice parts of Manchester, Cheshire and The Wirral who are still pretty Tory. I used to do some teaching in a very nice part of the Manchester commuter belt and half the kids and members of staff seemed to have grandparents living in Rhos on Sea or Llandudno.
Vale of Clwyd is not just the town of Rhyl, there is Prestatyn, Denbigh and St Asaph, and each of those towns has its own distinct political outlook.
‘It is hard to believe that in the notional result from ’92 this seat had a Conservative majority of 2,000-odd.’
I don’t know if that’s true because as you say elsewhere in your post, Rhyl, which has descended into an almost impoverished outpost, is completely different from the other towns in the constituency – namely Prestatyn, Denbigh and St Asaph and whilst i imagine Denbigh having a core Labour vote, I would have thought Prerstatyn, St Asaph annd the surrounding countryside to be more sympathetoc to the Tories than Labour (certainly nowadays any way)
This seat isn’t enrtirely different from the old Flintshire West seat – which was always Tory
However, many of those with social problems mightn’t vote and I think a substantial part of Labour’s excellent growth here is part of the Merseyside effect and poorer pensioners moving from that area to retire and bringing their anti-Tory voting habits with them. Colwyn Bay and Llandudno still get substantial numbers of retirees from nice parts of Manchester, Cheshire and The Wirral who are still pretty Tory. I used to do some teaching in a very nice part of the Manchester commuter belt and half the kids and members of staff seemed to have grandparents living in Rhos on Sea or Llandudno.
Good analysis from Matt. Wish I had bet on the tories when they were on 12/1 in Aberconwy now!
I agree that Rhyl is different from the other towns in this constituency and the seat isn’t simply entirely that one town.
However, I think the size of the town would have a disproportionate effect on the outcome. I think the rural vale would be Conservative along with St. Asaph and (although I haven’t been there for years) Denbigh would be Labour (as it’s poorer and more ‘Welsh’ in nature).
Prestatyn I think is difficult. Its county councillors are nearly all Tory, but I doubt whether in a national election it is as Conservative. There are some very nice parts of the town, but also lots of council estates in the town and Meliden and hundreds of boxy little bungalows that house many of the same type of Scouse retirees who have moved to Rhyl. I would imagine that the vote is fairly even there but it would have been Tory in 2010 and Labour before.
Denbigh has 5 county councillors: Two Plaid Cymru; One Independent; One conservative and one Labour, I have always found Denbigh to be quite evenly split between all four parties.
‘I have always found Denbigh to be quite evenly split between all four parties.’
Which makes Labour’s dominance in this seat all the more surprising
Could the case not me made that this seat is in fact the true successor seat to Flintshire West with a few extra wards – namely the Clwydian range and Denbigh – whilst Clywd West is essentially the old north, central and western parts of the old Denbighshire seat – with the rest being in Clwyd South
If so it paints an even starker picture of the decline of Torey fortunes in the area