Vale of Clwyd
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.26%)
Liberal Democrat: 4472 (12.59%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.82%)
BNP: 827 (2.33%)
UKIP: 515 (1.45%)
Others: 127 (0.36%)
Majority: 2509 (7.06%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15005 (46.1%)
Conservative: 10279 (31.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3846 (11.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2328 (7.1%)
Other: 1116 (3.4%)
Majority: 4726 (14.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10206 (31.6%)
Labour: 14875 (46%)
Liberal Democrat: 3820 (11.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2309 (7.1%)
UKIP: 375 (1.2%)
Other: 728 (2.3%)
Majority: 4669 (14.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10418 (32.2%)
Labour: 16179 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 3058 (9.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2300 (7.1%)
UKIP: 391 (1.2%)
Majority: 5761 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11662 (29.8%)
Labour: 20617 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3425 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2301 (5.9%)
Referendum: 834 (2.1%)
Other: 293 (0.7%)
Majority: 8955 (22.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Ruane(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Matt Wright (Conservative) Contested Vale of Clwyd in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.Chris Ruane(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Paul Penlington (Liberal Democrat)Caryl Wyn Jones (Plaid Cymru) Tom Turner (UKIP)Ian Si`Ree (BNP) Mike Butler (Alliance for Green Socialism) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70884
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 26%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 15.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 72.4%
Social Housing: 13.3% (Council: 9.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 11.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.7%
It was really on the edge of the two counties but St. Asaph and Bodelwyddan hooked-out into Denbighshire a bit. I don’t think any of Denbighshire was included in Flint West. In North Wales, they were pretty stringent with the county boundaries when it came to constitiuencies, such as wit those small detached portions of Flint East that would probably have gone better in Denbighshire’s Wrexham division.
‘St Asaph however was in Denbigh until 1997′
The Denbigh constituency was abolished in 1983
I’ve constantly been told that Labour has no chance here, and yet at least 3 polls in Wales have shown the Tories falling short here and only one the opposite. For lack of any convincing evidence to the contrary of a non-partisan nature I still think LAB HOLD
I bloody told you! Why did so many of you think that there would be a Labour collapse in N Wales?
The thing is, Labour and the Conservatives are the only parties which can form a government in Britain, and voters know it. Anti-Tory voters who considered dabbling in Plaid or LD voting rejected it because they didn’t want a Tory government.
Next time, people, look at what the polls say. In a general election local knowledge is useful, but the regional picture usually outweighs local considerations. In the end, clearly some of you had a visceral hatred of Labour which caused you to take your eyes off the ball.
Ive always said labour would hold this seat, I thought it would be closer than 2500 votes though! I think Chris Ruane must have certainly built up a personal vote. The sheer number of Labour posters in the gardens of large detached homes made me think the Tories would struggle here.
I can comment on this with my head held high as I never gave a prediction for this seat, only advised on its former boundaries and the status of St. Asaph so I’m alright!
I have to admit that I thought it would be closer than it was eventually. Chris Ruane has a real support base in Rhyl and this clearly helps.
I think demographic change hasn’t helped the Tories in this seat. Although towns like Denbigh and Prestatyn and Rhyl have always had strong Labour votes, the downward move of Rhyl has meant that a lot of formerly Tory voters have moved out. I don’t think anyone would quibble with me when I say that Rhyl is an extremely depressed town (albeit in the process of regenerating). A similar demographic and voting change is probably visible in Blackpool (locals have always said Rhyl is like a mini-Blackpool). Lots of the people now living in Rhyl are working-class voters from the North-West of England with very Labour tendancies. There aren’t masses of swing voters here anymore.
The voters who no longer choose to live in Rhyl live in places like Abergele and Kinmel Bay, which are some of the fastest growing communities in Wales and are in Clwyd West. This saw a good Conservative swing, along with Aberconwy.
This analysis might seem simplistic and I don’t want to take anything awayd from Labour here, they did well, but I think it’s a fair reflection.
Not so fast Barnaby. If you look at the results in Wales Labour just about held on. Places such as Swansea West, Newport East, Gower, Cardiff West and South, Delyn, Bridgend and even Alyn and Deeside are not such safe places for Labour next time around.
What I will say in Brown’s defence is that his energy after the final debate saved Labour from a drubbing. I reckon that Brown’s campaign in the final few days could have saved up to 500,000 Labour votes.
Not so fast Barnaby. If you look at the results in Wales Labour just about held on. Places such as Swansea West, Newport East, Gower, Cardiff West and South, Delyn, Bridgend and even Alyn and Deeside are not such safe places for Labour next time around.
What I will say in Brown’s defence is that his energy after the final debate saved Labour from a drubbing. I reckon that Brown’s campaign in the final few days could have saved up to 500,000 Labour votes. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks and months
Labour ran an extremely negative campaign designed to scare the living daylights out of pensioners, people on benefits and public sector workers. They did this on a large scale with a lot of direct mail and the help of the Unions and threw a big final effort at it to GOTV key core Labour areas. This added to an incumbency factor centred on the Labour MP managed to hold ground but we halved the majority and increased our vote so it’s now a true marginal of 2,500.
Mr Wright,
“Labour ran a negative campaign”?
Yes, I remember now, they took two major billboard poster sites in the town and ran ads attacking the other party’s Leader constantly for months.
Oh, hang on – that was your party. Billboards don’t come cheap and you were changing them every other week, usually with a negative mesage.
It was neck and neck up to seven days prior to Polling Day.
Then all three of the other main parties were out in force delivering new leaflets.
Labour had nothing to be positive about.
Just noticed the superb pre-election commentary from Barnaby.
And I’ve just noticed your kind comment Andy. Thanks! Not a bad effort considering that I haven’t been to this seat since 1979.