Vale of Clwyd
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15005 (46.1%)
Conservative: 10279 (31.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3846 (11.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2328 (7.1%)
Other: 1116 (3.4%)
Majority: 4726 (14.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10206 (31.6%)
Labour: 14875 (46%)
Liberal Democrat: 3820 (11.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2309 (7.1%)
UKIP: 375 (1.2%)
Other: 728 (2.3%)
Majority: 4669 (14.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10418 (32.2%)
Labour: 16179 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 3058 (9.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2300 (7.1%)
UKIP: 391 (1.2%)
Majority: 5761 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11662 (29.8%)
Labour: 20617 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3425 (8.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2301 (5.9%)
Referendum: 834 (2.1%)
Other: 293 (0.7%)
Majority: 8955 (22.9%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Chris Ruane (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Matt Wright (Conservative) Contested Vale of Clwyd in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
Mark Young (Liberal Democrat) Contested Vale of Clwyd in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70884
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 26%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 15.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 72.4%
Social Housing: 13.3% (Council: 9.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 11.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 12.7%
24 Responses
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Cities of London and Westminster
Who is this ‘Dave’? No-one called Dave has commented in this thread.
May 23rd, 2008 at 11:54 pmIn 2005 I thought this seat might be close so was surprised to see the result being flashed up on the screen at about 12:30am as if it were some safe Labour seat in South Yorkshire or Tyne&Wear.
May 24th, 2008 at 12:49 am“Who is this ‘Dave’? No-one called Dave has commented in this thread.”
Quite a rebuttle
May 26th, 2008 at 12:34 amcardiff west
I have taken a look at the local election results in this seat and if you take the average vote for each party in a ward and then add them all up you get the following percentage figures.
Conservative 36.82
Independents 23.76
Labour 23.41
Plaid Cymru 9.41
Liberal Democrats 5.89
BNP 0.69
This for me is a sign that Labour have problems in this onstituency. I think that this seat could be very close but my opinion is that with this and the increase at the Assembly elections for the tory vote i have to favour the tories.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:02 pmI do believe though that who ever wins the majority will only be three figures.
Hertsmere
I see that both the Tory and LD candidates stood in this seat at the Assmebly elections last year.
With experienced candidates and strong possibility of a tight contest I imagine we shall see much higher turnout here than in recent years, when it has clearly been falling. Higher turnout does make it harder to predict eventual outcome - it will depend on who has the best organisation on the ground.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:40 pmI live in this constituency.
Also stood against Matt in an earlier existence (well 2003).
Chris has the advantage of sitting MP and being a local lad.
However the Tories have really got this seat in their sights. Ann Jones the AM here only got back in for Labour with a majority under 100 - and she is also a local candidate with a previously solidish maj.
Lib Dems do work hard but in reality here it is Tory v Labour. Plaid will also chip away at some Labour supporters.
With two years to go there is still a lot to play for but Chris Ruane needs to really start being a local candidate not a Labour candidate. (For example he voted for Post Office closures but now is campaigning to save a local one earmarked for closure).
Rhyl may be solidly Labour (but then again I get the impression…..) but the Tories have really blasted Prestatyn, where there may well be a better turn out.
VoC is with Ynys Môn a key Welsh seat (well, in the North at least!).
Not a betting man really but unless Labour do another dip I think it will be Chris with a 400ish majority.
August 2nd, 2008 at 3:31 pmI think this will be a very close one either way. I agree a Labour victory by around 400 votes seems quite plausible.
I wouldn’t rule out the tories chances here, but its the kind of seat they could only really win in a landslide victory.
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:40 pmDon’t think that Rhyl is quite the Labour monolith that it once was
In the last locals the Conservatives took:
2 seats in Rhyl East
2 seats in Rhyl South East
1 seats in Rhyl South
Turnout in Labour seats is low. Tally in Rhyl West for the winning Labour candidates was 276 and 236. Hardly overwhelming.
A major challange for the Conservatives will be projecting forcefully into the inland areas of the constituency, where the party has less strength.
If my memory serves me correctly, the Conservatives won in Vale of Clwyd on the list vote in the Welsh Assembly elections.
August 8th, 2008 at 4:47 pmalyn and deeside / vale of clwyd
Yep, but those areas can be ragarded as suburbia in Rhyl - you can also see an upturn in this whole region to BNP (or whoever they want to call themselves).
In Rhyl it is a case of turnout first. Many wards are going to have difficulties due to many problems - ask any one who knows Central London/Manchester etc.
Inland voters you are looking at (from one who has done lots of legwork there) trad Tories, trad Labour and quite a few people willing to give the BNP a try.
Labour got a shock. We all did (except those who are far-right).
Just down my road is the main road to Rhyl - and beyond to Abergele. My main problem is that here are rather too many organised far-right people doing their false reporting.
Life will only become harder.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:58 pmPages: « 1 [2] Show All