Uxbridge and South Ruislip
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21758 (48.27%)
Labour: 10542 (23.39%)
Liberal Democrat: 8995 (19.96%)
BNP: 1396 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1234 (2.74%)
Green: 477 (1.06%)
English Democrat: 403 (0.89%)
Others: 271 (0.6%)
Majority: 11216 (24.88%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 16519 (42.9%)
Labour: 11318 (29.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8033 (20.9%)
BNP: 548 (1.4%)
Other: 2061 (5.4%)
Majority: 5201 (13.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16840 (49%)
Labour: 10669 (31%)
Liberal Democrat: 4544 (13.2%)
BNP: 763 (2.2%)
Green: 725 (2.1%)
UKIP: 553 (1.6%)
Other: 284 (0.8%)
Majority: 6171 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15751 (47.1%)
Labour: 13653 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3426 (10.3%)
UKIP: 588 (1.8%)
Majority: 2098 (6.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18095 (43.6%)
Labour: 17371 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4528 (10.9%)
Referendum: 1153 (2.8%)
Other: 398 (1%)
Majority: 724 (1.7%)
Boundary changes: loses Ickenham and part of West Ruislip to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. In exchange it gains Cavendish, South Ruislip and Manor wards.The name of the seat is changed to Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.
This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line. A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. The new boundaries take away the strongly Conservative Ickenham, but bring in the Conservative/Lib Dem marginal area of South Ruislip – thus the Conservative majority falls only slightly, but their share of the vote falls more significantly – it`s just that their opposition is now more evenly split. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives since 1997 when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989.
Current MP: John Randall(Conservative) born 1955, Uxbridge. Educated at Rutland House school, Merchant Taylor`s School and the University of London. Managed the family department store, Randalls of Uxbridge. First elected as MP for Uxbridge in the 1997 by-election. Opposition whip since 1999, despite a brief break in 2003 after resigning over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)
John Randall(Conservative) born 1955, Uxbridge. Educated at Rutland House school, Merchant Taylor`s School and the University of London. Managed the family department store, Randalls of Uxbridge. First elected as MP for Uxbridge in the 1997 by-election. Opposition whip since 1999, despite a brief break in 2003 after resigning over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)
Sidharath Garg (Labour) Hillingdon councillor.
Mike Cox (Liberal Democrat) educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon Councillor. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005.
Michael Harling (Green) Gerard Mark Wadsworth (UKIP) Dianne Neal (BNP) 
Roger Cooper (English Democrat) Born 1945, Hertfordshire. Catering consultant. Contested South West and Londonwide list in 2008 London elections. Contested London region in 2009 European elections.Francis McAllister (National Front)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89638
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 14.1%
White: 85.4%
Black: 2.5%
Asian: 8.2%
Mixed: 2.2%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 68.2%
Hindu: 2.9%
Muslim: 3.6%
Sikh: 1.8%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 19.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24%
Owner-Occupied: 73.1%
Social Housing: 15.4% (Council: 11.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.2%
I think so Smokey yes.
The boundary changes are really odd here.
One only can assume that the intention is to keep Cavendish, South Ruislip and Manor wards together as a ‘South Ruislip Community’.
What is sad was at each end of greater London we had very destinct geographically large constituencies of Uxbridge and Upminster which are no more.
I am also surprised that the boundary changes have made the successor to Uxbridge (as it is now a new constituency) more Labour, and likely to have been won by Labour in 1997.
“One only can assume that the intention is to keep Cavendish, South Ruislip and Manor wards together as a ‘South Ruislip Community’.”
In as much as there is a separate community of South Ruislip it is the area south of Yeading Brook which is almost all contained within the South Ruislip ward. This area is distinct from Ruislip ‘proper’ and residents will often put South Ruislip as their address. The wards of Cavendish and Manor are not really South Ruislip except in that they form the southern part of Ruislip ‘proper’ (or rather Eastcote in the case of Cavendish). I used to live in the Manor ward, a short walk from Ruislip High Street and Ruislip station and I certainly didn’t think of myself as living in South Ruislip which is a seperate entity.
I believe that keeping these three wards together was a vain attempt to gerrymander by keeping the areas of LD strength together or indeed to coral areas of relative Tory weakness together.
The reason that this seat would have been Labour in 1997 can be summed up in one word: Ickenham.
Ickenham would have probably given the Tories a majority of about 3,000 in 1997 so without it Labour would clearly have been ahead in the rump of Uxbridge and the ‘South Ruislip’ wards would not have offset this.
The removal of Ickenham from Uxbridge seems utterly gratuitous. As Julian Shersby says Ickenham is really an integral part of Uxbridge and fits far better with that seat than with the parts of Ruislip and Northwood it has now been placed in.
If one accepts the logic of adding three Harrow wards to Ruislip Northwood (itself debatable, though clearly all three HIllingdon seats were undersized) then we have a situation whereby each of the three existing seats needed to gain one extra ward. Hayes & Harlington gained West Drayton – so far so sensible. This would leave Uxbridge needing to gain two wards and the obvious ones would have been Harefield, which had always been associated with Uxbridge before 1997 and South Ruislip which as I have said is somewhat distinct from the rest of Ruislip-Northwood. There was no logic at all to swapping around Ickenham in order to add Manor and Cavendish and the only rationale I can see for it is partisan advantage (although it will not now prevent the Tories from winning this seat easily)
Pete: I seem to remember you saying you live in this seat, in south Ruislip, is that correct?
I did when I said it but don’t anymore. I lived in Manor ward which as I discussed above is not really South Ruislip, but is part of the ‘South Ruislip’ named in this seat. I suppose I never actually did live in this seat as technically it won’t exist until the election, so I lived in Ruislip Northwood.
I still have strong links to the area.
I have recently moved into the Brunel ward from Chelmsford. John Randall aside I have only seen the Labour candidate Sid Gargs leaflets. Is this a two horse race or a foregone conclusion for Conservatives?
Cons Hold= 9,000 maj
TED – it will be an easy Conservative hold as Shaun suggests. There could be circumstances in the future when it could come into play but that would probably take another 1997-style Labour landslide & even then quite possibly not.
Con Hold
Maj 8400
Con maj 11,000
I have lived in Uxbridge for all of my life (42 years). Although a socialist by nature I do know John Randall very well and regard him as honest as they come. I also remember that John first stood for election as there was not a good representative from any party who was also a local !! Not sure who I would vote for but i’m guessing the Lib Dems are picking up pace around the country so am still sitting on the fence. The big point about Brunel University Votes is that in the past elections the University has been on half term break so most students did not get to vote in this area as they go back to their home areas at the election, even though they can vote they are not about to vote… Not sure if they will be about this time? As long as Uxbridge gets a local man or women then I will be happy – so that rules out the Labour party. My guess is that as always conservative supporters can be relied to come out and vote so John Randall will walk it, just depends if this mad rush to support the Lib Dems carries on ..
Thanks for all the information. Certainly interesting! As I said in my earlier post I am new to the area but all I have seen are Labour leaflets so far!
Thanks again.
PS I think that Trevor Birch has got it wrong – the Labour candidate is local according to the candidates leaflets and the local newspaper.
Randall is certainly not your stereotypical Tory MP, being bearded & pro-Serbian. I would also agree that he is a man of integrity but the local issue shouldn’t be a reason to vote for him rather than Labour.
And vice versa in labour seats Barnaby?
John Randall is an excellent constituency MP and he opposed the Iraq war! He’s bound to get re-elected.I see the Lib Dem candidate is claiming in his latest leaflet that it is a close two-horse race between him and the Tories.Their usual stunt! There were of course third here last time with half the vote the Tories got.
Con 19000
LD 11000
Lab 10000
BNP 2500
Green 2000
Others 2000
Close race? LOL
CON HOLD
Shaun will know that I always vote for the Party and not the candidate. I avoided having to vote for a Labour candidate I intensely dislike when I was a young man by voting in Brighton where I was a student but if I hadn’t had that option I would have taken a deep breath & voted for him still.
Sorry to disagree with you Barnaby, but a good decent man of integrity is well worth voting for any time over Party considerations – and especially after the recent disgraceful MP scandals. My vote was for honest John; on a party basis I rule out -
a. Labour (getting us into this mess with worst PM in memory, uncontrolled dimmigration, their anti-life and anti- Christian stances, and Ed Balls promoting sex-education for kids unable to handle it),
b. Lib Dems (their mad pro-Europe stance), and
c. Conservatives (not willing to change this crazy first-past-the-post system with continually changing boundaries). I would have honestly voted English Democrat (except the guy is just not local enough for me).
We need only 500 (not 650) seats overall, the alternate (preferential) voting system operating in 430 constituencies, with 70 regional seats with members elected under the D’Hoyt system – which would still give the bigger parties an overall advantage. Also, General Elections every four not five years (thelast year was a ‘dead’ year (Brown clinging on to power) – and no postal votes.
There was quite a big discussion upthread (which I initiated) about the boundaries of Harefield. They were:
Uxbridge 1885-1997
Ruislip-Northwood 1997-2010
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner 2010-present
There was quite a large discussion upthread (which I initiated) about the boundaries of Harefield. They were:
Uxbridge 1885-1997
Ruislip-Northwood 1997-2010
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner 2010-present
Historic boundaries of the old Uxbridge constituency:
1885-1918: The parishes of Ashford, Bedfont, Cowley, Cranford, Feltham, Hampton, Hampton Wick, Hanworth, Harefield, Harlington, Harmondsworth, Hayes, Hillingdon East, Hillingdon West, Ickenham, Laleham, Littleton, Northolt, Ruislip, Shepperton, Staines, Stanwell, Sunbury, Teddington, Uxbridge, West Drayton, and Yiewsley.
1918-45: The urban districts of Hayes, Ruislip-Northwood, Southall-Norwood, Uxbridge, and Yiewsley, and Uxbridge Rural District.
1945-50: The urban districts of Ruislip-Northwood and Uxbridge.
1950-74: The urban districts of Uxbridge, and Yiewsley and West Drayton.
1974-83: The London Borough of Hillingdon wards of Colham-Cowley, Harefield, Hillingdon East, Hillingdon West, Ickenham, Uxbridge, and Yiewsley.
1983-97: The London Borough of Hillingdon wards of Colham, Cowley, Harefield, Hillingdon East, Hillingdon North, Hillingdon West, Ickenham, Uxbridge North, Uxbridge South, West Drayton, and Yiewsley.
1997-2010: As 1983-97 except for the removal of Harefield ward.
The white British percentage in Hillingdon fell from 67.9% in 2001 to 52.2% in 2011.
The percentage in December 2012 would be 49.4% if the same rate of decrease has been taking place since the census was taken.
Checking with the official 2001 census document, the 2001 percentage was actually 72.5% not 67.9%. (Wikipedia says 2001 census figures = 67.9%).
Census results – white British, 2001 / 2011:
Brunel: 76.9% / 54.4%
Cavendish: 83.0% / 71.7%
Hillingdon East: 79.9% / 58.8%
Manor: 83.5% / 74.5%
South Ruislip: 78.5% / 62.4%
Uxbridge North: 79.4% / 62.2%
Uxbridge South: 71.7% / 52.1%
Yiewsley: 79.4% / 57.0%
TOTAL: 79.0% / 61.2%
White overall, Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
2001: 85.4%
2011: 69.8%
Can anyone explain the relatively large rise in the Asian other category? (It cannot be Arab or Chinese people because they have their own category in the census):
Asian other:
2001: 1,027 / 89,635 = 1.1%
2011: 4,422 / 101,217 = 4.4%
Dunno but I should think most of the rise in the BME population is down to Indian people moving in: it is, after all, a very prosperous area.
I wonder if it could be Nepalese people, including some former Gurkhas? I have noticed a distinct increase in the number of Nepalese people in several areas of West London, and it isn’t unusual for people to have military connections in this part of the world either. However, I could be wrong. Iranians is perhaps another possibility – they aren’t Arabs as Iraqis are & don’t fall into the other categories.
The greatest number is in Brunel ward so there is probably a bit of a clue there and the next higest figures are in neighbouring wards like Yiewsley, Uxbridge South and Hillingdon East. Brunel ward also includes HIllingdon hospital as well as the university. I doubt the miltary factor is all that great although there are two large RAF bases at Uxbridge and Northolt (South Ruislip). I did notice a particularly high figure for Other Asian in the two Northolt wrds in Ealing and suspect this is mainly Sri Lankan so this would largley be a spillover of that as well as students at Brunel
I have no knowledge of this area at all.
Do you think it’s likely to become Hayes & Harlington, both demographically and politically, in 10-20 years’ time?
No I don’t think so. As I commented on the Hayes & Harlington thread, that was a predominantly white working class seat that has become an ethnic minority working class seat, whereas this is primarily middle class and has some good residential areas in eg Uxbridge North so much of the Asian incomers are relatively affluent. Also a large part of the non-white population consists of students including International students, some of whom may have a right to vote but few of whom will exercise it. Certainly the ‘South Ruislip’ wards on the whole remain overwhelmingly white and while this was always the weakest part of Ruislip for the Tories, the area has been trending away from Labour. There is a clear difference between the Ruislip part of the seat and the Uxbridge part which has become much more non-white, but even so Labour appears weaker in Uxbridge than they were 10 or 20 years ago
That’s all true Pete, but the fact that parts of this seat are good residential areas wouldn’t prevent Asian voters from voting Labour per se (look at Harrow West for example). I wouldn’t however say that many of the residential areas are that good – Cavendish & Uxbridge North wards are quite pleasant, but most of the rest of the seat, as currently drawn are less so, especially as Ickenham isn’t included at the moment. Since some neighbouring or at least nearby seats have seen quite sweeping demographic change in favour of Labour, one has to wonder if in the end it will have an impact in this seat; even so, it’s likely to take quite a long while to happen yet, if it does.
That is true but the comparison was with Hayes & Harlington and I don’t think its anywhere near headed to that level of Labour strength or general shitholeness. It is possible that in 20 years time this could be a Labour seat, but then of course on these boundaries it would have been a Labour seat in 1997 and in many earlier elections so the worst that might happen is that like Harrow East it becomes a marginal again as it was in the 1950s
Well-known London Conservative Andrew Boff was a councillor on Hillingdon council from 1982 to 1994 according to this biography. Which ward did he represent?
ht tp://www.london.gov.uk/profile/andrew-boff
Cowley from 1982 to 1986 and then he switched to HIllingdon West (wisely as Cowley was gained by Labour then)