Comments on: Twickenham

By: evergreenadam

evergreenadam — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:26:58 +0000

Hampton Wick has always been a bit different, it is reliably Tory in local elections.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 06:52:50 +0000

Valerie Vaz fought this seat for Labour in 1987. Keith Vaz had fought the neighbouring seat of Richmond & Barnes in 1983.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 22:27:00 +0000

The Tories have tended to outstrip their natural vote somewhat in local elections in Twickenham Riverside ward, in my opinion. The LDs have contrived to continue to propose rather unwieldy & over-commercialised schemes for the eponymous riverside, while the Tories have generally had policies rather similar to Labour’s which have proved much popular than the electorate. The number of people who’ve voted for Tory councillors & for Cable as their MP must be particularly high in that particular ward.

By: akmd

akmd — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:47:35 +0000

Barnaby is spot on with his assessment. A couple that me and my family have known well for years recently moved to St Margarets. One works for Sky TV while the other is in the public sector I believe. I’m not sure of their exact political leanings but neither of them strike me as Tories. Must be their Welsh heritage!

This is a nice area of London. I was in Teddington recently which has a pleasant high street full of independent businesses and very few chains. You also have Bushy Park which is a lovely green space and Hampton Court Palace for those with an interest in history like myself (It’s what my degree subject was). Property is expensive but not as much as the Richmond side. It certainly doesn’t strike me as an area particularly attractive city types although East Twickenham presumably is judging by last year’s locals.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:19:36 +0000

I think a lot of it still is. There are TV & picture studios, and a lot of actors & broadcasters live in the present constituency as well as others who earn their living in the arts rather thain, say, finance. Obviously there are many natural Tory voters too, but there seems to me to be an increasing divergence in the demography on the Richmond with the Twickenham side of the river. That can clearly be seen in the local election results, with the LDs winning 4 wards outright in the latter but only 1 (and that by a whisker) in the former. The area is well-off enough to be a decent prospect for the Tories – it’s hardly decaying suburbia is it – but it conforms more closely to the perceived model of an LD seat than any other in the London area, except perhaps for one seat which ISN’T held by them, Hampstead & Kilburn. Definitely still a seat pretty thick with intellectual voters (though I’d contend that no-one with any intelligence would ever vote for them!).

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:08:43 +0000

Barnaby and AKMD-

Apologies for asking you to indulge my love of 1970s British TV.

“George and Mildred” was set here – I think in Hampton Wick. It was painted as the epitome of Tory middle class snobbish high-end suburbia.

From AKMD’s description of the area as “a liberal intellectual area” this is presumably no longer the case. When and how did the area change?

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:05:14 +0000

Was replying to Barnaby. I pretty much agree with AKMD too.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:03:50 +0000

I think that’s a very fair assessment.

Clearly the Tories will be clear favourites in the Richmond & Twickenham seat. The Lib Dems’ falling vote share, the gentrification of the area and Goldsmith’s incumbency all point clearly to that conclusion.

In Teddington & Hanworth I would still make the Lib Dems narrow favourites to hold without Cable. They are pretty much certain to hold if Cable stands. Certainly even without the Cable factor I think this will be a much easier seat for the Lib Dems to hold than Sutton & Cheam or St Helier & Croydon Central.

Rightly you point to Labour’s improved position in Teddington & Hanworth, presumably because part of Hounslow will be moved into the seat. It will be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems can squeeze back Labour in that area or whether Labour use their stronger base to improve their vote substantially in the Richmond wards.

By: akmd

akmd — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 14:58:48 +0000

They are fairly competitive in most wards. They hold all the seats in Hampton Wick, South Twickenham, Strawberry Hill and Twickenham Riverside and also have 1 councillor each in Hampton North, Heathfield, St Margarets and Whitton. They were also reasonably competitive in West Twickenham but this was held comfortably by the LDS as were the remaining 3 wards.

The problem the Tories have is that the LDs are so far ahead with their majority that even a significant swing would not be quite enough to gain the seat. That would give whoever replaces Cable time to establish a personal vote and they may well be as popular as he has proved to be. if the sort of demographic change that delivered Richmond Park to the Tories happens here, then the task will be easier. If this remains a intellectual liberal area for want of a better word, then it will be more difficult to pull off.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 14:53:36 +0000

“This seat” will cease to exist. The Tories would be clear favourites to take the proposed Richmond & Twickenham seat in my book, and I think that they’d have a good chance in the proposed Teddington & Hanworth if Cable didn’t stand there, and possibly even if he did (though that contains 3 wards carried fairly well by the local LDs in the borough elections). There’s more chance of a Labour rebound in Cable’s absence too in the latter proposed seat, but rather limited scope for one in the former. If Twickenham continued to exist in its present form, and Cable stood down, then yes the Tories would probably be competitive.