Twickenham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20343 (34.06%)
Labour: 4583 (7.67%)
Liberal Democrat: 32483 (54.39%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.45%)
Green: 674 (1.13%)
Others: 116 (0.19%)
Majority: 12140 (20.33%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 26696 (51.6%)
Conservative: 16731 (32.4%)
Labour: 5868 (11.4%)
Other: 2392 (4.6%)
Majority: 9965 (19.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16689 (33.4%)
Labour: 6903 (13.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 24344 (48.7%)
UKIP: 579 (1.2%)
Green: 1423 (2.8%)
Majority: 7655 (15.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21956 (37.8%)
Labour: 9065 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 26237 (45.1%)
Other: 886 (1.5%)
Majority: 4281 (7.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Vincent Cable(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, York. Educated at Nunthorpe Grammar and Cambridge University, with a doctorate in Economics from Glasgow University. Former Chief Economist for Shell. A former Labour party member, councillor and special advisor to John Smith, he joined the SDP in the 1980s. Glasgow councillor 1971-1974. Contested York 1983, 1987, Twickenham 1992. MP for Twickenham since 1997. Lib Dem shadow chancellor since 2003 and Deputy leader since 2006, he served as acting leader of the party following Ming Campbell`s resignation in 2007. Secretary of State for Business since 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Deborah Thomas (Conservative) born Kew. Educated at Cambridge University. Chartered Accountant, working as as project consultant for AMV. Contested Birmingham Hodge Hill in 2005.
Brian Tomlinson (Labour) lawyer. Young Fabians Labour Party and Trade Union Liaison Officer.Vincent Cable(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, York. Educated at Nunthorpe Grammar and Cambridge University, with a doctorate in Economics from Glasgow University. Former Chief Economist for Shell. A former Labour party member, councillor and special advisor to John Smith, he joined the SDP in the 1980s. Glasgow councillor 1971-1974. Contested York 1983, 1987, Twickenham 1992. MP for Twickenham since 1997. Lib Dem shadow chancellor since 2003 and Deputy leader since 2006, he served as acting leader of the party following Ming Campbell`s resignation in 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Steve Roest (Green) Runs a green car company and is UK Director for the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society.
Brian Gilbert (UKIP)Chris Hurst (BNP)Harry Cole (Citizens for Undead Right and Equality)Paul Armstrong (Magna Carta)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 103675
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 17.3%
Born outside UK: 16.3%
White: 90.8%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 4.4%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 1.8%
Christian: 66.2%
Hindu: 1.6%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 2.2%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 4.9%
Graduates 16-74: 41%
No Qualifications 16-74: 14.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.1%
Social Housing: 10.4% (Council: 3.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.4%)
Privately Rented: 13.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.6%
not, of course, deliveries AT the rugby match,
but the deliveries to normal addresses going on
during a match.
Allegedly Vince Cable has changed his name to Neville
Is this like Austin Mitchell changing his name to Haddock? That particular stunt didn’t last long.
Looking at the local election results here, it is striking just how much better the LDs did on this side of Richmond borough. Fulwell, Hampton, Teddington and West Twickenham were all won easily by them and they also did fairly well in Hampton North, St Margarets and the Whitton area. Dr. Cable must have carried all these wards easily in the GE while on other the side of the borough, Ms. Kramer probably only carried Ham & Petersham, Kew and maybe North Richmond. I know the Richmond seat has seen a good deal of demographic change other the past decade or so but the Twickenham seat does not seem to have had anywhere near as much. Maybe in Twickenham itself but not it seems elsewhere in the constituency.
I think it’s possible that Kramer carried Mortlake & Barnes Common too, by a whisker. But she would have been behind by some distance in Barnes & South Richmond, and of course a long way back in East Sheen.
The General Election seemed to act as a leveller.
People who wouldn’t bother voting Lib Dem in Tory wards did vote, and the reverse happened in other wards.
Basically, there were masses of split votes in the central/east Twickenham area which gave the Tories the seats that mattered in the council – as Richmond Park wouldn’t be enough to get control.
In outlying areas such as Hampton local factors played less, and here Cable’s vote was more duplicated in the council elections, hence the loss of 2 Con seats in Hampton North, despite advances elsewhere.
Labour also performed better in the council elections.
That would be “somewhat less disastrously” Joe…….
I’m not so sure the LDs carried Mortlake in the GE but I suppose its just about possible. But as you say, Zac would have been well ahead in Barnes, South Richmond, East Sheen and 3 of the Tory wards from Kingston which are probably even stronger for the party then their Richmond wards. So Kramer would probably have carried 4 of the wards in the seat while Zac carried all the others although perhaps narrowly in Mortlake.
On my figures Goldsmith carried Mortlake fairly comfortably. Kramer will have carried Ham & Petersham, Kew and probably North Rihcmond (though this one very close). I also have her carrying the Canbury ward in Kingston. It could be there was a greater degree of split voting in one part of the seat than the other which could put these calculations out. However the aggreagted local election results in Richmond Park were much closer to the actual general election result than they were in this seat. Here a LD lead of about 2,000 in the local elections compared with 12,000 for Cable and he carried every ward easily
Thanks for responding, Pete. Cable carried every ward in his constituency? That is very impressive. This is going to be a very interesting seat to watch once he retires in whatever form it ends up.
If he retires will it give the Tories a chance to take this seat, in the right conditons, or is his sucessor likely to hold it for the LibDems?
Are the Tories competitive in a number of wards here?
“This seat” will cease to exist. The Tories would be clear favourites to take the proposed Richmond & Twickenham seat in my book, and I think that they’d have a good chance in the proposed Teddington & Hanworth if Cable didn’t stand there, and possibly even if he did (though that contains 3 wards carried fairly well by the local LDs in the borough elections). There’s more chance of a Labour rebound in Cable’s absence too in the latter proposed seat, but rather limited scope for one in the former. If Twickenham continued to exist in its present form, and Cable stood down, then yes the Tories would probably be competitive.
They are fairly competitive in most wards. They hold all the seats in Hampton Wick, South Twickenham, Strawberry Hill and Twickenham Riverside and also have 1 councillor each in Hampton North, Heathfield, St Margarets and Whitton. They were also reasonably competitive in West Twickenham but this was held comfortably by the LDS as were the remaining 3 wards.
The problem the Tories have is that the LDs are so far ahead with their majority that even a significant swing would not be quite enough to gain the seat. That would give whoever replaces Cable time to establish a personal vote and they may well be as popular as he has proved to be. if the sort of demographic change that delivered Richmond Park to the Tories happens here, then the task will be easier. If this remains a intellectual liberal area for want of a better word, then it will be more difficult to pull off.
I think that’s a very fair assessment.
Clearly the Tories will be clear favourites in the Richmond & Twickenham seat. The Lib Dems’ falling vote share, the gentrification of the area and Goldsmith’s incumbency all point clearly to that conclusion.
In Teddington & Hanworth I would still make the Lib Dems narrow favourites to hold without Cable. They are pretty much certain to hold if Cable stands. Certainly even without the Cable factor I think this will be a much easier seat for the Lib Dems to hold than Sutton & Cheam or St Helier & Croydon Central.
Rightly you point to Labour’s improved position in Teddington & Hanworth, presumably because part of Hounslow will be moved into the seat. It will be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems can squeeze back Labour in that area or whether Labour use their stronger base to improve their vote substantially in the Richmond wards.
Was replying to Barnaby. I pretty much agree with AKMD too.
Barnaby and AKMD-
Apologies for asking you to indulge my love of 1970s British TV.
“George and Mildred” was set here – I think in Hampton Wick. It was painted as the epitome of Tory middle class snobbish high-end suburbia.
From AKMD’s description of the area as “a liberal intellectual area” this is presumably no longer the case. When and how did the area change?
I think a lot of it still is. There are TV & picture studios, and a lot of actors & broadcasters live in the present constituency as well as others who earn their living in the arts rather thain, say, finance. Obviously there are many natural Tory voters too, but there seems to me to be an increasing divergence in the demography on the Richmond with the Twickenham side of the river. That can clearly be seen in the local election results, with the LDs winning 4 wards outright in the latter but only 1 (and that by a whisker) in the former. The area is well-off enough to be a decent prospect for the Tories – it’s hardly decaying suburbia is it – but it conforms more closely to the perceived model of an LD seat than any other in the London area, except perhaps for one seat which ISN’T held by them, Hampstead & Kilburn. Definitely still a seat pretty thick with intellectual voters (though I’d contend that no-one with any intelligence would ever vote for them!).
Barnaby is spot on with his assessment. A couple that me and my family have known well for years recently moved to St Margarets. One works for Sky TV while the other is in the public sector I believe. I’m not sure of their exact political leanings but neither of them strike me as Tories. Must be their Welsh heritage!
This is a nice area of London. I was in Teddington recently which has a pleasant high street full of independent businesses and very few chains. You also have Bushy Park which is a lovely green space and Hampton Court Palace for those with an interest in history like myself (It’s what my degree subject was). Property is expensive but not as much as the Richmond side. It certainly doesn’t strike me as an area particularly attractive city types although East Twickenham presumably is judging by last year’s locals.
The Tories have tended to outstrip their natural vote somewhat in local elections in Twickenham Riverside ward, in my opinion. The LDs have contrived to continue to propose rather unwieldy & over-commercialised schemes for the eponymous riverside, while the Tories have generally had policies rather similar to Labour’s which have proved much popular than the electorate. The number of people who’ve voted for Tory councillors & for Cable as their MP must be particularly high in that particular ward.
Valerie Vaz fought this seat for Labour in 1987. Keith Vaz had fought the neighbouring seat of Richmond & Barnes in 1983.
Hampton Wick has always been a bit different, it is reliably Tory in local elections.