Twickenham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20343 (34.06%)
Labour: 4583 (7.67%)
Liberal Democrat: 32483 (54.39%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.45%)
Green: 674 (1.13%)
Others: 116 (0.19%)
Majority: 12140 (20.33%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 26696 (51.6%)
Conservative: 16731 (32.4%)
Labour: 5868 (11.4%)
Other: 2392 (4.6%)
Majority: 9965 (19.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16689 (33.4%)
Labour: 6903 (13.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 24344 (48.7%)
UKIP: 579 (1.2%)
Green: 1423 (2.8%)
Majority: 7655 (15.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21956 (37.8%)
Labour: 9065 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 26237 (45.1%)
Other: 886 (1.5%)
Majority: 4281 (7.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Vincent Cable(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, York. Educated at Nunthorpe Grammar and Cambridge University, with a doctorate in Economics from Glasgow University. Former Chief Economist for Shell. A former Labour party member, councillor and special advisor to John Smith, he joined the SDP in the 1980s. Glasgow councillor 1971-1974. Contested York 1983, 1987, Twickenham 1992. MP for Twickenham since 1997. Lib Dem shadow chancellor since 2003 and Deputy leader since 2006, he served as acting leader of the party following Ming Campbell`s resignation in 2007. Secretary of State for Business since 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Deborah Thomas (Conservative) born Kew. Educated at Cambridge University. Chartered Accountant, working as as project consultant for AMV. Contested Birmingham Hodge Hill in 2005.
Brian Tomlinson (Labour) lawyer. Young Fabians Labour Party and Trade Union Liaison Officer.Vincent Cable(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, York. Educated at Nunthorpe Grammar and Cambridge University, with a doctorate in Economics from Glasgow University. Former Chief Economist for Shell. A former Labour party member, councillor and special advisor to John Smith, he joined the SDP in the 1980s. Glasgow councillor 1971-1974. Contested York 1983, 1987, Twickenham 1992. MP for Twickenham since 1997. Lib Dem shadow chancellor since 2003 and Deputy leader since 2006, he served as acting leader of the party following Ming Campbell`s resignation in 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Steve Roest (Green) Runs a green car company and is UK Director for the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society.
Brian Gilbert (UKIP)Chris Hurst (BNP)Harry Cole (Citizens for Undead Right and Equality)Paul Armstrong (Magna Carta)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 103675
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 17.3%
Born outside UK: 16.3%
White: 90.8%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 4.4%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 1.8%
Christian: 66.2%
Hindu: 1.6%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 2.2%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 4.9%
Graduates 16-74: 41%
No Qualifications 16-74: 14.9%
Owner-Occupied: 73.1%
Social Housing: 10.4% (Council: 3.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.4%)
Privately Rented: 13.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.6%
Richard,
I would have reduced tax straight to 40% in one go (with no mansion tax)
as it brings in more revenue and
would be better to get the row over in one go in mid term.
There may even have been a case for going lower.
We need to cut taxes lower down aswell.
I understand the political difficulties and the restrictions in a coalition though.
JJB sports – no relation,
but I have noticed for some time – without detailed knowledge – that they don’t seem to stock quite the right things.
I think a lot of people are after club shirts (as realistic as possible) and they seemed to lack that – as if it was almost tourist stuff.
I am a rugby man (not football) so the market is slightly different, but I managed to get 3 England shirts for £12 each on Sports Direct (which has rescued a few of the JJB stores I think)
so am not surprised it is superior.
JJB may have done better on shoes etc. though
but I think they suffered from distribution difficulties aswell.
But I do of course wish those stores that have been passed on every success.
I notice Joe that you have dodged Richard’s question.
The choice was between top rate of 45% and no mansion tax or 40% with mansion tax.
As I am completely opposed to all wealth taxes including a mansion tax, I certainly prefer the 45% and no mansion tax option, as most conservatives probably do when push comes to shove.
I don’t support a mansion tax atall.
Would have to say Cable’s majority will be something like 6, 355 in 2015, presuming of course that he will stand again, which he more than likely will.
I would have to accept 45% and no mansion tax if that was the forced choice
but I don’t think it has to be the choice.
Full result might go-
Cable (Lib Dem)- 25, 520
Tory- 19, 165
Labour- 6, 257
Others- 2, 954
The Results – you put turnouts too low in all predictions.
I think turnout will rise a bit further nationally next time to about 68%
although I don’t yet know for sure of course.
But you are predicting 5-7,000 fewer votes in all the seats you forecast.
I will refrain from putting a prediction here yet.
Lib Dems down to hold on JJB-
1. Laws
2. Cable
3. Carmichael
4. Campbell
5. Foster
6. Farron
7. Stunell
8. Davey
9. (Mark) Williams
10. Moore
11. Pugh
12. Harvey
13. Kennedy
14. Clegg
15. Webb
16. Baker
17. Lamb
18. Russell
19. Brake
I would have had 40% and a mansion tax.
Does that prove I’m not a Conservative in HH’s eyes?
I prefer to tax wealth consumption than wealth creation.
In general I wold prefer to reduce NI than income tax – why should income from employment be taxed higher than income from investment?
I agree with Richard (despite being on the opposite wing of the party).
I would prefer a “mansion” tax and a lower flat rate of tax – say 30% above the level of the minimum wage.
Firstly because its much harder to avoid taxation on bricks and mortar, secondly because wealth generation should not be discourage and thirdly because it would redistribute wealth away from London without overly punishing those who work hard and have done well for themselves.
Some of the comments from 2010 on this thread are a right giggle.
Well I looked at all the 2010 comments before the general election & they all predicted a Lib Dem hold, the lowest forecasted majority being 4,000, without exception. I too predicted one though I didn’t predict the size of the majority. So I don’t quite know what you’re talking about. I also maintain that Cable will win again in 2015 if he stands, though with more difficulty than in 2010.
Cable by about 4000 next time around! Hopefully it wont be 12000 at any rate!
Not sure why any of the posts in 2010 were funny – I did a quick scan of them.
Of all the Lib Dem gains in South West London in 1997 (Carshalton and Wallington, Richmond Park, Kingston and Surbiton, Sutton and Cheam, Twickenham) this produced the largest majority. So it is perhaps fitting that it is now their safest of the four they currently hold in the Richmond-upon-Thames/Sutton area- Although K&S was at one point even safer.
Census results, white British, 2001 / 2011:
Fulwell & Hampton Hill: 84.0% / 79.3%
Hampton: 86.1% / 79.6%
Hampton North: 83.0% / 73.2%
Hampton Wick: 82.6% / 77.5%
Heathfield: 77.6% / 60.0%
St Margarets & North Twickenham: 78.4% / 72.5%
South Twickenham: 81.7% / 77.8%
Teddington: 84.2% / 80.7%
Twickenham Riverside: 77.1% / 71.1%
West Twickenham: 79.4% / 72.1%
Whitton: 79.0% / 67.1%
Twickenham: 81.2% / 73.7%
White overall, Twickenham:
2001: 90.8%
2011: 85.7%
Numerical increase in white British population in five wards:
Fulwell & Hampton Hill: 7,932 to 8,033
Hampton Wick: 7,499 to 7,919
St Margarets & North Twickenham: 7,795 to 8,105
South Twickenham: 7,377 to 7,767
Teddington: 8,094 to 8,338
Thanks Andy – the changes here have been more modest than in Richmond Park – and in this Borough, demographic change largely helps the Conservatives.
In Twickenham, the effect of this has been delayed by support for Vince Cable – but I think will arrive.
And that very support that Uncle Vince currently enjoys would definitely not be enjoyed by any other Lib Dem candidate were he to retire.
Cable has done very well to build a stronghold for himself here, but once he goes from the political scene, this effectively becomes a Lib Dem-Tory marginal.
The fact that he has been around Twickenham for something like 21 years undoubtedly helps his cause here for the near future- Come 2015 should he decide to stand again (which I happen to think that he will) he can hold this with a good-sized majority. If he doesn’t, as I say this could be one that follows the pattern of Winchester, Harrogate and Knaresborough and Truro and Falmouth.
“Thanks Andy – the changes here have been more modest than in Richmond Park – and in this Borough, demographic change largely helps the Conservatives.”
Largely yes, although clearly Heathfield and to a lesser extent Whitton are becoming a bit Hounslowfied
That is true Pete, and we in the Labour Party are working Heathfield. However the changes whilst noticeable are not yet dramatic. Whitton, although it seems very similar to Hounslow South ward over the borough boundary, certainly doesn’t have a very similar ethnic composition to it yet & Heathfield is still more clearly white-dominated than some might think.
I’ve put the London census results that I posted on individual threads into a single spreadsheet on Google Docs:
ht tp://bit.ly/15sm6hi
Thanks for all your work on this Andy.
Thanks Barnarby. At first I thought it would be a fairly simple copy and paste job but in the end it took ages to get the formatting right. The good thing is that I (or anyone else for that matter) will be able to re-use the template in the future whenever they want a list of London constituencies and wards.
As things are playing out, I think it’s entirely possible if not likely that Vince Cable will be the only Liberal Democrat MP in London following the 2015 election.
Labour must be favourites to win Hornsey and Wood Green, Bermondsey and Old Southwark and Brent Central, with the Tories set regain Sutton and Cheam, Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston and Surbiton.
I would be very surprised if either Kingston or Bermondsey are lost in 2015. What you say about the other seats could well happen though the Lib Dems may just hold onto Hornsey and Carshalton.