This is a rock solid seat for Vince Cable, whose personal standing has never been higher, especially after his lauded performance while holdig the fort as acting LD party leader.
The ‘excellence’ or otherwise of non-incumbent candidates really doesn’t matter very much, as I kept telling (and indeed reassuring!) Iain Dale on our 18 Doughty Street Election Battleground series on marginal constiuencies.
Incumbency does matter for the Lib Dems, which I why they are likely to hold more seats than any application of uniform swing calculations (including Anthony’s!) will underestimate their number after the next general election.
It’s far too early to make any firm predictions about that, of course, but I would make Richmond Park a less likely loss than Sutton/Cheam or Carshalton/Wallington, as Susan Kramer did not have an incumbency effect working for her in 2005, whereas the other MPs did. There is well documented academic evidence that MPs do better in their second contest - especially LDs - just ask I Dale (N Norfolk) (again)!

Robert’s analysis strikes me as bang on

Lib Dems do tend to make good, popular constituenncy MPs and are less affected by any mass uniform swing from one of the main two parties to the other (as will almost certainly be the case in the next election)

As well as Norman Lamb in Norfolk North, there’s Steve Webb in Northavon, Norman Baker in Lewes, and even Mark Oaten in Winchester (pre-scandal of course), all of whom have stacked up comfortable majorities in the seats that prior to 97 were considered if not rock-solid, then fairly safe, Tory seats

I still think Goldsmith will take Richmond Park though, although Vince Cable seems quite safe here (as even the Tories seem to have recognised when selecting their candidate)

People like Joe who seem to think the Tories will take at least three-quarters of the Lib Dem current seats at the next election might be in for a bit of a surprise

Mostly agree with you on this Tim, but I think you’re being a bit unfair to Joe. From what I have read he doesn’t believe the Lib Dems will lose anything like as many as three quarters of their seats (although I think he is more pessimistic on the Lib Dems than myself, perhaps stemming from his bias as an active Tory).

Personally I think that if the Tories’ current fair wind carries on to the next election, the Lib Dems stand to lose around 20 of their current seats of 60 or so to the Tories (of which Twickenham definitely will not be one, nor the other examples you give except maybe Winchester). Maybe there will also be a handful of Lib Dem gains from Labour.

‘Personally I think that if the Tories’ current fair wind carries on to the next election, the Lib Dems stand to lose around 20 of their current seats of 60 or so to the Tories’

That sounds about right - although I’m hoping that the incumbancy factor Robert mentions will reduce this to about 10 or, more realistically, 15

Also, it’s worth remembering that the current polls have everything to do with Labour’s (or more specifically Gordon Brown’s) failings, as opposed to anything David Cameron’s New Conservatives have said (except may be inheritance tax)

Perhaps when the Tories announce some policies people might have second thoughts about backing them, and surely for Labour things can only get better

‘Tim I don’t predict the LDs losing 3 out of 4 seats.’

You predicted they’d lose Newton Abbott on something like a 15% swing to the Tories - despite the fact that the sitting MP is popular locally

On that swing about three quarter of Lib Dem seats would go Tory

Tory and Labour MPs don’t make good MPs and aren’t “popular’

Of course they do, especially nowadays, but as a general rule Lib Dem MPs have always benefitted from being seen as the most locally effective representatives

There used to be a feeling that many Labour MPs (many of whom represent areas they have no connection with whatsoever) used to take their seats for granted, whereas the Tories were more interested in making money from the various city boards they used to sit on - although times are changing and whatever you say about the 2005 intake of MPs (both Tory and Labour), they certainly seem to be a lot more hard working in their constituencies than many of their predecessors

First, I did not predict here that Richmond Park would be held by the LDs. I know (and Joe knows, because he’s known me for anout 20 years!) I have suggested that in the past, but that was before the Tories under David Cameron showed they could reach nearly 50% in national opinion polls for the first time since the year dot! (and also before petrol prices rose to £1.20. £1.30 and climbing, which is probably one of the biggest single factors in their current strength, and I think that may help somewhat even where the government is not the defender).
What I said was they were less likely to lose RP than S&C and C&W, both of whch are within the cathchment area of my preent workplace. They may lose all three.

However, I would still be surprised if the LDs ended up with less than 45-55 seats.

On incumbency, there is mathematical proof that LD MPs have a bigger personal vote. Labour and Conservative MPs are often also hard working and caring, and I’d cite as examples of my personal acquaintance Graham Allen and Nick Palmer, and Crispin Blunt and James Paice, but the ‘major’ party vote is far more evenly associated with the contest for who is to be in government, and the better defined because better publicised natinal images. Second term Labour and Conservative MPs just don’t get the kind of boost that Norman Lamb, Norman Baker etc etc get (and watch for, say Tim Farron and maybe Chris Huhne next time.) Look at those ‘Liberals’ who have held on against national swings ever since the 1960s, even if the first won in byelections (Clement Freud, Alan Beith etc etc).

Its great to see Robert Waller commenting on this site. I am in awe of his knowledge about these things. His books are essential reading, and the Election Battleground series was very interesting.

Your wise counsel is great appreciated Robert!

To get back to this thread, I think we are all agreed that Vince Cable is as safe as houses here. I have family in this constituency, and although they would consider themselves as “conservative leaning” they will be voting for him.

Its great to see Robert Waller commenting on this site. I am in awe of his knowledge about these things. His books are essential reading, and the Election Battleground series was very interesting.

Your wise counsel is great appreciated Robert!

To get back to this thread, I think we are all agreed that Vince Cable is as safe as houses here. I have family in this constituency, and although they would consider themselves as “conservative leaning” they will be supporting him.

Double thanks, Yarmouth T, that’s all very kind of you!

I should perhaps have said, though, that although I do have an interest in all constituencies, Twickenham is actually the one I have a vote in - though if anyone thinks they can tell which way I voted they are likely to be mistaken!

Now, can I organise my signature to have a Harry Bear, Fur Play party for Henley (qv), logo …?!