Truro and Falmouth
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20349 (41.73%)
Labour: 4697 (9.63%)
Liberal Democrat: 19914 (40.83%)
UKIP: 1911 (3.92%)
Green: 858 (1.76%)
Others: 1039 (2.13%)
Majority: 435 (0.9%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 17613 (45.5%)
Conservative: 12482 (32.3%)
Labour: 5954 (15.4%)
Other: 2640 (6.8%)
Majority: 5131 (13.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16686 (32.4%)
Labour: 6991 (13.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 24089 (46.7%)
UKIP: 2736 (5.3%)
Other: 1062 (2.1%)
Majority: 7403 (14.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16231 (32.3%)
Labour: 6889 (13.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 24296 (48.3%)
UKIP: 1664 (3.3%)
Other: 1215 (2.4%)
Majority: 8065 (16%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15001 (26.4%)
Labour: 8697 (15.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 27502 (48.5%)
Referendum: 3682 (6.5%)
Other: 1865 (3.3%)
Majority: 12501 (22%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Sarah Newton (Conservative) Educated at Clare Terrace, Falmouth School and King`s College, London. Formerly worked for Citibank, American Express and as Director of Age Concern. Director of the International Longevity Centre. Former Merton councillor.
Sarah Newton (Conservative) Educated at Clare Terrace, Falmouth School and King`s College, London. Formerly worked for Citibank, American Express and as Director of Age Concern. Director of the International Longevity Centre. Former Merton councillor.
Charlotte MacKenzie (Labour) Educated at Cambridge University, with a doctorate from University College London. Researcher and consultant. Former associate director of HEFCE and QAA, and previously a senior lecturer. Formerly chaired the Board of Directors and Trustees of the community-based regeneration charity Cornwall Neighbourhoods for Change. Truro councillor since May 2007. Contested Truro and St Austell 2005. 
Terrye Teverson (Liberal Democrat) born 1952. Educated at Helston Grammar School. Runs a printing company. Kerrier disrict councillor 1987-1999. Contested Falmouth and Camborne 1992, 1997. Contested South West region in 1999 European elections. Married to Lord Teverson, a Liberal Democrat whip in the Lords.
Ian Wright (Green)
Harry Blakeley (UKIP) Mechanical engineer.Loic Rich (Mebyon Kernow)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84317
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 20.2%
Over 60: 27.1%
Born outside UK: 4.2%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 73.7%
Full time students: 4.3%
Graduates 16-74: 20.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25%
Owner-Occupied: 71.6%
Social Housing: 12.4% (Council: 9.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.5%)
Privately Rented: 12%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 18.2%
Cleggmania led to me getting good odds on the Conservatives in Cambourne, Harrogate, Montgomershire and Newton Abbott and on Labour in Chesterfield, Wavertree, Hodge Hill, Hampstead and Edinburgh S.
But it also led me to waste some money on the LibDems in Grimsby, Doncaster C, Pendle and Lewisham E.
;-(
Overall though definately no complaints.
There probably was something to your theory though Richard. St Austell was always reckoned to be the LD stronghold in the old Truro seat while Newquay was the Conservative stronghold in Cornwall North. The new seat appeared to pitch the Conservative seaside town of Newquay against Liberal, industrial St Austell. The reason the notional figures were so far out here was because of an overestimation of how Tory Newquay was (although the T&R figures were much more realistic).
In the 2009 elections for the new Cornwall unitary, the Tories won 3 of the 5 wards in St Austell against 2 for the LDs while in Newquay the LDs won 3 of the 5 against 1Conservative and 1 Independent
That’s interesting Pete. When Labour were quite close themselves to taking Truro in 1966, it is likely that the party gained something close to a plurality in St Austell, which has never before been regarded as a Tory town at all. Mind you, it does have a significant brewery, which some people regard as a Conservative feature (though it doesn’t explain voting patterns in the City of Manchester does it).
Doesn’t St Austell only have 4 wards – 3 Con and 1 LD?
Combined results for selected Cornish towns in 2009:
Bodmin
LibD 1773
Con 1241
Oth 236
Bude
LibD 2129
Con 791
Oth 294
Cambourne
Con 1542
LibD 1084
Oth 2125
Falmouth
Con 1463
LibD 1254
Oth 3372
Launceston
LibD 2031
Con 1358
Oth 304
Liskeard
LibD 1643
Con 1337
Oth 299
Newquay
Con 1549
LibD 1379
Oth 2083
Penzance
LibD 1206
Con 843
Oth 1974
Redruth
Con 676
LibD 443
Oth 1981
St Austell
Con 2221
LibD 1758
Oth 962
Saltash
LibD 2232
Con 1851
Oth 789
Truro
LibD 1929
Con 1687
Oth 2270
Lots of minor parties to complicate things but odd that the Conservatives led in both Newquay and St Austell but still didn’t win in 2010 and were behind in both Saltash and Liskeard but still won Cornwall SE.
“Doesn’t St Austell only have 4 wards – 3 Con and 1 LD?”
Mount Charles, though it doesn’t have a St Austell prefix, is part of that town
In 2009 the Conservatives had a very slight lead in St Austell & Newquay and a larger lead in Cornwall SE. It would suggest the rural areas in the latter are more Conservative and there is also Torpoint to consider. The rural areas in St Austell & Newquay include wards which had a high proportion of mining employment such as Bugle and Penwithick.
It looks from your figures that in St Austell & Newquay, the Conservatives carried the two largest towns but the LDs carried the rest of the constituency. It is possible that the same thing happened in the general election
My theory re clapped out holiday resorts versus industrial/mining areas is being shot down.
Then again we need to know the relative change since 2005 in the two types of area.
What do people do for work in Cambourne & Redruth?
In 2005 the LDs had a large lead across Restormel district (which is more or less the same as the St Austell & Newquay seat) and at that time had a big lead across St Austell and were neck and neck with the Tories in Newquay. therefore there is a clear trending from 2005 to 2009 of St Austell towards the Conservatives and Newquay in the opposite direction.
I presume that Others in Camborne, Redruth & Falmouth included Labour? What proportion of Others in these towns were in fact Labour votes?
Not a very high proportion. Independents and in some cases Mebyon Kernow got many more votes than Labour.
In the four Camborne wards they were fourth or fifth – behind MK in every seat
Labour votes in Cornwall towns:
Cambourne 494
Falmouth 663
Newquay 71
Penzance 604
Redruth 424
St Austell 325
Truro 256
No candidates in Bodmin, Launceston, Liskeard or Saltash.
The best Labour result was 332 (28%) in Penzance E – second and only 25 behind the LibDems. They also came second in Redruth N with 278 (29%), 88 behind an Ind.
Considering the small size of the wards, Cornwall might well have been Labour’s worst performance in 2009. No equivalents of Wellington (Somerset) or Newport E (IOW) where a strong candidate had a significant personal vote.
One of their better results was in Carn Brea North where andy Atherton was the candidate, bur her personal vote amounted to 22% and third place. I am working on more detailed figures to keep Barnaby happy. But i’m not sure the results will make him all that happy
Here is a more detailed analysis. Apologies to Richard for some replication of his work
Penzance
LD 2217 30.8%
Con 1916 26.6%
UKIP 936 13.0%
Lab 812 11.3%
Ind 772 10.7%
MK 384 5.3%
Grn 82 1.1%
Lib 73 1.0%
St Ives
Con 1618 40.4%
Grn 959 23.9%
Ind 589 14.7%
LD 418 10.4%
UKIP 304 7.6%
Lab 120 3.0%
Redruth
Ind 1444 46.6%
Con 676 21.8%
LD 443 14.3%
Lab 424 13.7%
MK 81 2.6%
Lib 32 1.0%
Camborne
Con 1919 33.7%
LD 1420 24.9%
MK 1146 20.1%
Lab 637 11.2%
Ind 556 9.8%
Lib 21 0.4%
Falmouth
Ind 2324 38.2%
Con 1463 24.0%
LD 1254 20.6%
Lab 663 10.9%
MK 264 4.3%
Grn 121 2.0%
Truro
LD 1929 32.8%
Con 1687 28.7%
Ind 1239 21.0%
MK 512 8.7%
Grn 263 4.5%
Lab 256 4.3%
Newquay
Ind 1727 35.2%
Con 1549 31.6%
LD 1379 28.1%
Grn 100 2.0%
BNP 81 1.7%
Lab 71 1.4%
St Austell
Con 2535 42.3%
LD 2138 35.7%
Ind 651 10.9%
Lab 325 5.4%
UKIP 208 3.5%
MK 140 2.3%
Liskeard
LD 1643 50.1%
Con 1337 40.8%
MK 184 5.6%
BNP 115 3.5%
Saltash
LD 2232 45.8%
Con 1851 38.0%
Ind 651 13.4%
Grn 138 2.8%
Torpoint
Con 1034 42.9%
LD 919 38.1%
UKIP 459 19.0%
Launceston
LD 2031 55.0%
Con 1358 36.8%
Ind 304 8.2%
Bude
LD 2129 66.2%
Con 791 24.6%
Ind 211 6.6%
MK 83 2.6%
Bodmin
LD 1773 54.6%
Con 1241 38.2%
Ind 236 7.3%
Thanks for this Pete, appreciated. I think I shall not be suicidal over poor Labour performances in Cornwall,all things being considered. And I certainly don’t blame you for the results! Nevertheless they aren’t brilliant. Having said that, living where I do, I’m used to that…….
In the ‘rural’ east of Cornwall it seems to be LibDem towns versus Conservative countryside.
In the ‘urban’ west its much more mixed.
I’m surprised at how Conservative St Austell is.
Is St Ives much posher than Penzance then?
Why no Labour candidates in Saltash – isn’t it a suburb of Plymouth?
St Ives is quite posh I think and the Green vote demonstrates perhaps a certain amount of an urban intelligentsia type vote (it is home of the Tate gallery of course). Penzance is more functional.
St Austell was never so Conservative as now. It supports your theory about the trend in older industrial areas Richard
“St Austell was never so Conservative as now. It supports your theory about the trend in older industrial areas Richard”
That’s a great weight off my mind
Seriously do you know if any of the political parties analyses demographic and electoral trends to the depth we do?
You really should be contracted by CCHQ Pete. Would £1K per day suit you
Penzance is mixed – some quite poor looking people there.
St Ives seems to be a bit better off – boats, more pubs, restaurants etc., quite a few artists.
But as West Derbyshire shows, appearances can be very deceptive.
“You really should be contracted by CCHQ Pete. Would £1K per day suit you ”
I’m still waiting for the call
.. perhaps I need to lose the UKIP labels
I visited most of the Cornish towns about ten years ago and stayed in St Ives which was probably the ‘nicest’ of them. I like Falmouth and Penzance too but as I say more functional than St Ives which is more purely a resort kind of town. I found the towns of East Cornwall on the whole to be less nice looking – especially the inland towns like Liskeard and Bodmin. I can’t see any point living in somewhere liek Cornwall if you;re not going to be on the coast (same as Spain really)
Weren’t some of the east Cornwall towns used for distant overspill from London?
Not “some” East Cornwall towns – just Bodmin. I believe Barnstaple in Devon also received some people from London area in the 60s.
There have often been Labour candidates in Saltash, and one or two regular candidates who have scored relatively well. I am sure that last time they either couldn’t persuade older candidates to stand / persuade any newer people to come forward. This is the major problem in local government candidates, you know! Trust me – been there, done that! Remember local organisations are much more fragile than people outside tend to think.
From my time living there I know that Penzance has plenty of less well off areas.
Yes Penzance still is to some extent a port and has a fair number of working-class voters, though the Conservatives are far from negligible there. St Ives is arty and in many ways just the sort of place where the LDs stereotypically prosper,which I think also applies to Bude.
To be honest I think I prefer the inland areas to the coastal ones in the east and vice versa with regards to the west
Bude – which is just off the coast and Launceston are both nice, whereas Biscastle – which again is just off the coast, is extremely nice
I remember the coastal villages in the South East being very grotty – having spent many a summer in places like Kingsand and Corsand
Further West the coastal settlements – including Falmouth, Padstow and St Ives – are much nicer than inland towns such Cambourne, Redruth and Truro
One of the wards in Penzance is near the bottom of the national prosperity rankings.
Penzance is the port for the “Scillonian”, the boat to the Isles of Scilly, replacement of which I understand to be currently an issue.
Which way do the residents of the Isle of Scilly tend to vote?
They seem to elect a full slate of independents at council level, but I wonder how they vote in the generals?
There isn’t much t go on as in local elections they return all Independents. All the evidence of voting behaviour we have is from the 2009 and 2004 European elections when votes were counted by local authority.
In 2009 the figures were not very different for those of Cornwall as a whole, or for that matter the South West as a whole:
Con 30.7%
LD 18.9%
UKIP 15.1%
Grn 12.0%
Lab 7.0%
The main difference bign that UKIPs share was significantly lower in the Scilleys than int he rest of Cornwall and the South West with the Greens somewhat stronger.
However in 2004, UKIP had done much better in the Scillys than in the South West as a whole (only three Devon districts produced a higher UKIP share)
UKIP 32.1%
Con 22.8%
LD 20.5%
Lab 9.5%
Grn 8.1%
A comparison with Penwith district, which formed the greater part of the St Ives constituency suggests that the Scillys were likely to have been somewhat more Tory (relatively) and somewhat less LD or Labour than the constituency as a whole:
LD 25.4%
Con 24.3%
UKIP 21.7%
Lab 13.8%
Grn 8.4%
but there being so many votes for other parties such as UKIP or Green it would be impossible to say which party carried it in the recent general election
I hadn’t noticed this previously actually, but the decline in the UKIP share is particularly striking as in the South West region overall their share was only down fractionally from 22.6% in 2004 to 22.1% in 2009. UKIP’s share was actually down throughout Cornwall (and up in other parts of the region) but nothing like to that extent. The Scillys went from having as I say the fourth highest UKIP share in the SW of England in 2004 to the second lowest after Bristol in 2009 (I don’t include Gibraltar for obvious reasons). The main benficiaries appear to be the Conservatives here which was not so much true of the rest for Cornwall (where Mebyon Kernow of course got a decent vote this time round)
Its a very small electorate though.
I believe in the local elections last year there was 13 candidates for 12 places (or something similar).
Must be rather embarrassing being the one to lose.
You’ve raised the issue, Pete! How does Gibraltar vote in the Euroelections?
Presumably voting Mebyon Kernow in the Scillies is akin to voting SNP in Shetland.
Scillonians don’t necessarily think of themselves as Cornish, so the comparison with Shetland is quite appropriate.I’ve always been under the impression that the islands’ inhabitants tend slightly towards the Conservatives. Of course the population increases quite sharply in the summer months because of seasonal work.
I wonder whether if the electorate of the Scilly Isles was 16,000 they’d have a seat of their own in the same way as the Western Isles does.
“How does Gibraltar vote in the Euroelections?”
At the last European elections it was the most Conservative electorate of any in the UK, giving the Tories 52% which was 4% more than they got in Kensington & Chelsea, the next highest. Still this was a bit of a come down from the elections of 2004 when 71% voted Conservative!
Elections to the Gibraltar parliament are a battle between the Gibraltar Social Democrats and the Gibraltar Socialist Labour party, but as in Portugal, the ‘Social Democrats’ are a centre right party and there was probably some correlation between their support and those who voted Conservative in the more recent European election. Obviously in 2004 the Conservatives appealed well beyond this base, because the Labour UK government was seen by Gibraltarians as unsound on the question of sovereignty.
Indeed, I recall the leader of the Gibraltan Labour Party urging people to vote Tory in the 2004 Euros because of the “shared sovereignty” discussions
Wasn’t sure where else to post this, but all the limelight on Italy and Berlusconi has distracted from the Spanish general election which will be taking place this weekend.
It’s remarkable that the two main political parties there were able to poll well over 80% of the votes in 2008, despite the proportional representation system.
Polls are showing that Partido Popular are heading for the most seats – if this is true then vive la revolución!
Congratulations to the Spanish conservatives, who despite the proportional representation system, have succeeded in winning an overall majority of 22 in the Congress of Deputies.
Seats allocated were as follows
Popular Party 186 +32
Socialist Worker’s Party 110 -59
Others 54 +27
Total 350
Detailed results can be found here (although you may need Google Translate);
h ttp://www.generales2011.mir.es/99CG/DCG99999TO_L1.htm
Most of the countries of Western Europe at present seem to have governments led by their principal right-of-centre parties (UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland). Austria is one exception.
Indeed an excellent result for the Spanish Conservatives – well done to them. This is the worst result for the Spanish socialists since the civil war – they carried only 2 out of more than 50 constituencies