Thurrock
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16869 (36.81%)
Labour: 16777 (36.61%)
Liberal Democrat: 4901 (10.7%)
BNP: 3618 (7.9%)
UKIP: 3390 (7.4%)
Christian: 266 (0.58%)
Majority: 92 (0.2%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19399 (46.6%)
Conservative: 13898 (33.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4492 (10.8%)
Other: 3804 (9.1%)
Majority: 5501 (13.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14261 (32.6%)
Labour: 20636 (47.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4770 (10.9%)
BNP: 2526 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1499 (3.4%)
Majority: 6375 (14.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11124 (29.8%)
Labour: 21121 (56.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3846 (10.3%)
UKIP: 1271 (3.4%)
Majority: 9997 (26.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12640 (26.8%)
Labour: 29896 (63.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 3843 (8.1%)
Other: 833 (1.8%)
Majority: 17256 (36.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jackie Doyle-Price (Conservative) born Sheffield. Educated at Notre Dame school and Durham University. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 2005.
Jackie Doyle-Price (Conservative) born Sheffield. Educated at Notre Dame school and Durham University. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 2005.
Carl Morris (Labour) Thurrock councillor.
Carys Davis (Liberal Democrat) Former Liberal Democrat researcher and adviser, works for a charity.
Clive Broad (UKIP)
Emma Colgate (BNP) Thurrock councillor. Contested Basildon 2005. Contested Eastern region 2009 European elections.Arinola Araba (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100760
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 24.8%
Over 60: 17%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 94.5%
Black: 1.5%
Asian: 2.3%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 10.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.2%
Owner-Occupied: 67.8%
Social Housing: 24.3% (Council: 22.4%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
If Labour can get the black African population registered to vote I’d say the Tories are toast in this seat.
As I said before, the increase was from 973 in 2001 to 9,742 in 2011.
I know a lot of those will be children but even so it’s a big change in the demographic composition of this constituency.
Out of the Essex seats this is the one which is most experiencing demographic change. It’s a strange mix of WWC, African and an established Indian community.
The problem with Thurrock is that many WWC (which still makes up 80-90% of the popn) still vote Labour here and that is more of a hinderence to the Tories than the Africans that have been moving here in numbers over the past 10 or so years.
Thurrock would benefit from a government who supports a withdrawal of Europe, tougher immigration controls etc as it is fairly rght wing but in an old Labour sense.
“The problem with Thurrock is that many WWC (which still makes up 80-90% of the popn)”
That is a significant overestimate.
The White British population of Thurrock was 80.9% in the 2011 census….it will now be below 80%. Certainly not all of those will be working class. I think 60-65% is a more realistic estimate.
I think the Tories did pretty well to win back Thurrock in the first place given the position of the two parties in 1997. Labour’s vote fell by 27% points between then and 2010 while the Tory vote increased by about 9% points.
Saying that, I agree with Andy JS. I really don’t see the Tories holding this seat in 2015. Labour needs only the tiniest of swings and given the demographic changes to which he and H Hemmelig referred, this should be pretty straightforward.
The White British population of Thurrock was 80.9% in the 2011 census….it will now be below 80%. Certainly not all of those will be working class. I think 60-65% is a more realistic estimate
I’m a little confused by your comment HH. I f 80.9% of the population of Thurrock was White British in 2011 then I doubt that it has dropped much from that in the past couple years? Or did you mean in 2001?. A quick look on the ONS UK map Thurrock borough came in between 79.1%-89% White British (I think) so I’m not too sure if things have changed dramatically enough here since then to warrant that figure going down to 60-65%. I know the total white percentage will still be high as Thurrock, like elsewhere in the UK, has a sizeable number of Eastern Europeans. I think demographically Thurrock is similar to Havering next door.
My earlier point was that there is a very large Labour core, in the old sense, who still support Labour regardless of the fact that they may disagree with large chunks of what that party now stand for. While it would be no suprise if the various ethnic minorities who are newer residents give their vote to Labour it is the larger WWC group that will help Labour win here. You are certainly right that not all white voters in Thurrock are working class. There are many middle class voters moving in, including middle class African families – some of whom do vote Tory.
Many of these (lower) middle class voters probably reside in Orsett Ward which is in the seat next door (but still in the borough of Thurrock) followed by Chafford Hundred and the nicer bits of Grays, but even places like Chafford Hundred have a decent Labour vote which must come from some of these more traditional Tory voters switching to Labour.
Places like Thurrock, Harlow, Basildon and Southend will be a lot more susceptible to changing demographics as people move out of East London to places where property prices are cheaper.
The exact figure for White British in Thurrock from the 2011 census was 80.9%.
As not all the White British population will be working class, I was speculating that the WWC population of Thurrock might be something like 60-65%.
I’ve a feeling that figure will decline substantially in the years ahead though.
The C % vote is about the same as in 1979 here – so that’s below 1987 and 1992
but above 1983.
The Tories will probably need to raise the turnout here to hold on, unless the small parties (including the LDs) can supply them with some extra votes aswell.
“As not all the White British population will be working class, I was speculating that the WWC population of Thurrock might be something like 60-65%”
Cheers HH, that makes sense.
Thats a good point JJB….UKIP are probably the biggest threat here to the Tories, after Labour that is
Looking through the ward results, the Tories appear to have held up quite well here in May 2012.
Leading in wards such as Ockendon.
It’ll be interesting to look at the census results by ward to see where the black African population has particularly increased.
Census results – black African, 2001 / 2011:
Aveley & Uplands: 0.7% / 5.1%
Belhus: 1.0% / 7.6%
Chadwell St Mary: 0.7% / 0.9%
Chafford & North Stifford: 1.4% / 10.5%
Grays Riverside: 1.3% / 10.2%
Grays Thurrock: 0.7% / 5.9%
Little Thurrock Blackshots: 0.2% / 2.1%
Little Thurrock Rectory: 0.8% / 3.4%
Ockendon: 0.8% / 5.7%
South Chafford: 2.9% / 13.9%
Stifford Clays: 0.2% / 2.3%
Tilbury Riverside & Thurrock Park: 0.9% / 11.3%
Tilbury St Chads: 0.6% / 10.2%
West Thurrock and South Stifford: 1.5% / 13.7%
TOTAL:
2001: 898 / 100,754 = 0.9%
2011: 9,186 / 116,255 = 7.9%
“Thurrock African Group: Voice of African Community in Thurrock”:
ht tp://www.thurrockafricangroup.org
I’m slightly curious as to why Africans wish to live in Tilbury.
What are the other centres of black Africans in Britain?
The biggest concentration is now in Thamesmead followed by the Peckham area, Woolwich, Barking, Canning Town. The biggest concentrations outside London are in Moss Side and the Lawrence Hill ward in Bristol. There are concentrations in some of the areas of long term Black (caribbean) settlement such as Brixton, Harlesden, Tottenham, Edmonton, Lewisham and of course Moss Side and Lawrence Hill (which covers part of St Pauls) fit this pattern too.
“I’m slightly curious as to why Africans wish to live in Tilbury.”
I don’t suppose anyone in their right mind would want to live in Tilbury so I assume it is often a question of where they have been settled or where is affordable. Its noticeable how few live in Ch\adwell St Marys, so they clearly have some kind of minimum standard. I can see now why a Tory councillor here referred to his ward as Chaffrica
Would this be a good UKIP target for 2015 (good being in relative terms given that they didn’t come close anywhere in 2010)?
Almost certainly WKA.
UKIP clearly stopped the Tories getting a larger majority in 2010 and are competitive in a number of wards. They also have a councillor in Aveley and Uplands.