Tamworth
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21238 (45.78%)
Labour: 15148 (32.65%)
Liberal Democrat: 7516 (16.2%)
UKIP: 2253 (4.86%)
Christian: 235 (0.51%)
Majority: 6090 (13.13%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 18801 (43%)
Conservative: 16232 (37.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6175 (14.1%)
Other: 2532 (5.8%)
Majority: 2569 (5.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15124 (37.6%)
Labour: 19722 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 4721 (11.7%)
Other: 683 (1.7%)
Majority: 4598 (11.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18312 (36.7%)
Labour: 25808 (51.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4025 (8.1%)
Referendum: 1163 (2.3%)
Other: 546 (1.1%)
Majority: 7496 (15%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Christopher Pincher (Conservative)
Christopher Pincher (Conservative) Brian Jenkins(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Jenny Pinkett (Liberal Democrat)Paul Smith (UKIP)Charlene Detheridge (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91996
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 24.6%
Over 60: 17.2%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 97.8%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.5%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.3%
Owner-Occupied: 74.4%
Social Housing: 19.4% (Council: 14.2%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 3.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.1%
As expected Labour probably only just came second in Tamworth Borough, I would guess by between 1 and 2,000 votes looking at the local election result.
Little Aston, Shenstone, Stonnall, etc. probably added about 4-5,000 to the Tory majority. There are about 15,000 voters in those rural areas: turnout would have been about 75-80% and I guess the Tories would have carried them by a margin of about 40%. (Just my personal estimates of course).
Interestingly enough it looks like there hasn’t been an election since 1983 where Labour lost the seat due to those areas in Lichfield District Council which is always what the Tamworth Labour party has been afraid of.
Using the local elections as a guide it seems likely that Labour would have only carried 2 or 3 wards in this constituency in Bolehall and Glascote. The result in Belgrave would have been too close to call – the local election result there (with only 2 candidates) was Lab: 51.1%, C: 48.9%.
I see the Tories counter proposal for this seat is to simply rename it as Tamworth and South East Staffordshire.
Somehow, I can’t quite see it. Seems a bit unnecessary to me.
I noticed they also proposed renaming Redditch as North East Worcestershire. not the kind of development I would like to see. On some of these Tory party submissions, I don;t know why they bothered – I mean 52 pages for the Eastern region that more or less agreed with everything the BC had proposed
52 pages.
This from the party of small government.
I agree with you Pete on both the undesirability of renaming Redditch and also the unnecessary length of the Tory submissions.
Perhaps they’re trying to bombard the commission with relatively minor or petty proposals for changes to discourage them from looking at the proposals again.
Since most of these commission proposals seem in line with what the Tories want, I suppose a one page ‘thankyou’ document would be likely skipped over quickly whilst Labour and Lib Dem pages and pages and pages of objections get consideredat great length.
The Conservatives have held the borough council in Tamworth. Considering other results in the West Midlands, this is one I would have expected to have fallen. An indication that this seat will probably stay tory in 2015, even on a swing big enough to give Labour a 100 seat majority.
I don’t think the Conservatives could have realistically expected to lose control in Tamworth since their majority was too big to start with. Labour did win 6 of the 10 seats contested but will still think there is room for improvement; it’s nevertheless a much better performance from Labour than last year’s was.
There’s certainly room for improvement for Labour in Tamworth. But the borough is starting to lean more towards the tories and with the Lichfield district wards in the parliamentary seat being solidly tory, I still stand by my statement that Tamworth will probably stay tory at in 2015 even if Labour win a 100 seat majority nationally.
I would have to disagree with that – I think Labour would probably gain Tamworth at around the 70 seat majority mark.
I think Tamworth will stay Tory too. But not at the 100 seat Labour majority mark.
I notice the Tories had fairly good results in Cannock Chase as well holding on to about 4 wards they’d have expected to lose. Despite the Aidan Burley headlines. Interesting…
Labour is facing a harder battle here year on year for certain.
As the conurbations move towards Labour so the fringe areas like Cannock and Tamworth move towards the Tories although it’s of course a slow and relative process.
Not much LD vote to take here. Realistically cant be any more than 10% or so. Lab need to take tory votes directly which I cant see them doing.
Popular vote for Lab and Con:
2012:
Lab 7,644
Con 6,950
2011:
Con 10,375
Lab 9,246
2010:
Con 16,864
Lab 15,217
Thanks Andy – is that just Tamworth district itself, not the whole seat?
Just Tamworth borough – Lichfield district only votes once every four years.
Tories still winning this seat on 2012 results then presumably.
“A magnificent church service was held in Tamworth last Sunday under the aegis of the Peel Society to give thanks for the life and political legacy of Sir Robert Peel born two and a quarter centuries ago on February 5″:
ht tp://bit.ly/VOZAKx
The swing here wasn’t exceptionally large in 1997, in the redrawn seat, Tamworth, compared to the by-election in Staffordshire SE in 1996,
From my guesses about the area, I think Labour would have won it with a pretty similar result in 1997, without a by-election.
It is a seat the Tories should hold in 2015.
It does look a very hard gain for Labour. Perhaps Stafford & Burton are ahead of it in the pecking order now, though perhaps not Staffs Moorlands where the Tory majority seems to have been depressed a bit by quite a strong personal vote for Charlotte Atkins.
On a slightly random note, Tamworth is the fattest town in the UK, (along with Gateshead.)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/feb/18/obesity-tamworth-fat-capital-britain
Labour may find it hard going in the non-metropolitan Midlands next time. I certainly don’t see them winning this seat back- Labour wasn’t leading by all that much in Tamworth borough in 2012. When you then factor in the overwhelmingly Tory wards from Lichfield, it is hard to see how Labour can win unless national conditions were very favourable (majority of 75 plus).
The county elections this year in Staffordshire will be a crucial test. Labour should make some pretty big gains and get back up to 20-30 seats (from their present 3) and will probably lead well in places like Burton, Stafford and Tamworth towns.
They HAVE to do that anyway, although it won’t necessarily mean that they are on course to win the constituencies back in 2015. I think all three seats are going to be very tough for them.
But the big queston is whether Labour will win an overall majority on the council in May. Again, they probably should do. But I suspect they might fall short.
‘On a slightly random note, Tamworth is the fattest town in the UK, (along with Gateshead.)’
I thought Boston held that much sought after tag
Find this a bit surprising
because Tamworth is rather a busy, working, place,
but it doesn’t necessarily follow.
I think the Tories will hold onto the county council with a majority of about 2 or 3 seats.
The main battle grounds will be in places like Newcastle, Stafford, Burton, Tamworth and Cannock where Labour should make gains but will fall short in some wards.
The rural parts of the county will remain solidly Tory although UKIP could make gains in South Staffordshire.
Its been pointed out elsewhere that much of Staffordshire is trending long term towards the Tories. A small overall Conservative majority must be the most probable outcome at the council council election.
Realistically the only seat likely to change hands in 2015 is Cannock Chase where the colourful Aidan Burley will be thrown out on his ear.
Tamworth used to have a younger than average population (because it had some of the characteristics of a new town). I don’t know whether that’s still true in the latest census but it might affect the obesity figures in some way.
‘Realistically the only seat likely to change hands in 2015 is Cannock Chase’
I disagree. If – and its a big if – Labour maintain their current 8-10pt lead, which has been pretty consistent over recent months – I would have thought they’d be expected to make a few gains in staffordshire, despite the large tory swings in 2010
i agree that like much of the midlands outside the big cities staffordshire is definitely trending to the conservatives, but i think labour are still competitive at the moment
I have to agree that the Tories are likely to hold narrowly on to Staffs County Council. It’s been pointed out that gains in some towns which have marginal characteristics (e.g. Leek) are made a lot harder for Labour by the ward boundaries currently in force, quite apart from anything else. Notts & Derbyshire look much more promising.
Tim is of course right – if Labour enjoys no more than a narrow national lead over the Tories, they will have to make do with gaining Cannock Chase in this county, but if there’s a larger national lead up to 4 other seats come into play.
Joe James B – I don’t know Tamworth well, but I’ve always thought that it’s industrial, but for the most part definitely fairly prosperous. It’s the sort of territory which Labour can win in a very good year, but not routinely these days. In older times, it had a Labour MP continuously for 25 years as part of the Lichfield constituency (1945-1970).
I think given that the tory vote in tamworth is nearly that of labour and the lds combined we should be confident of a hold as long as we put the effort into ensuring it is so. Same applies for Burton and Stafford. Cannock will be harder, and that depends on how well we do nationally.
Id still have thought it more likely that there will be no labour gains than more than 1 though.
Been told by a friend on the ground that Staffordshire Tories are bullish about their prospects of retaining control of the county council.
Losses are expected in the more urban wards of Newcastle-under-Lyme, Cannock, Burton, Stafford and Tamworth but they are confident that they will emerge with an overall majority.
The electoral divisions in my area of Lichfield and Burntwood could prove to be important. Lichfield City North in particular will be one to watch.