Comments on: Swansea West

By: smokey Jones

smokey Jones — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 21:22:07 +0000

I have just checked the European Election results for this constituency last year.

Labour 3534

Lib Dem 3199

Cons 2926

Those results indicate to me that both Labour and Lib Dem activists in this seat were putting in more effort than some other seats.

By: public purse

public purse — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 21:15:51 +0000

Yes, Andrew Davies was incumbent in 2007 but was only 1500 (6%) ahead of Peter May at that election.
2010 there is no incumbent for general and indeed there will be no incumbent for 2011 assembly as Andrew Davies is stepping down.
Lab and Libs are obviously waiting until outcome of General before selecting for Assembly

By: smokey Jones

smokey Jones — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 21:10:50 +0000

I have just looked at the European Election results for this constituency on http://www.swansea.gov.uk

Labour 3534
Lib Dems 3199
Cons 2926

Remarkably close, and it indicates that Labour and the Lib Dems were putting in more effort here than they were putting in in some other seats.

By: smokey Jones

smokey Jones — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 21:02:13 +0000

Andrew Davies is the Assembly constituency member. But do not forget the four regional Assembly members.

By: public purse

public purse — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:25:34 +0000

This looks like it could be a Lib Dem gain it is def a party target. On the ground, they are almost in double figures since Jan with regards to literature. Glossy magazines, colour tabloids, letters from Nick Clegg.
Also constituency office has been open since Jan and looks good.
Candidate Councillor Peter May well liked and represents big ward Uplands with comfortable majority.
Labour only one leaflet, lead story attacks Libs campaign. Choice of candidate is hurting them esp in current climate. Geraint Davies split party in selection according to local press. Lost his seat in 2005 by 75 votes and had high expenses.
Seen nothing from conservatives yet.
Councillor count: Lib Dem 17, Lab 7, Con 1

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 13:46:32 +0000

I tend to agree, but could someone tell me whether the successful Labour AM was an incumbent, or a new candidate?
It seems unlikely to me that having fairly comfortably failed to gain the seat in the Assembly elections the LDs would then succeed at Westminster, but it isn’t impossible by any means. Like Peter I’d like to hear the view from the ground, preferably from supporters of more than one party.

By: peterelectionfollower

peterelectionfollower — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:55:56 +0000

Does anyone have any local campaign news please?

At this point I am inclined to think Labour hold as I cannot see Labour vote falling below 36%.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:46:57 +0000

Well Father of the House Alan Williams won this seat in 1964 it was actually a gain from the Conservaties; he turned a Tory majority of 403 into a Labour one of 2,637.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:42:49 +0000

I’ve just double-checked the figures because one might expect the turnout in Swansea East to have been lower but in fact it was 75.6% in 1992. The Swansea East turnout in 2005 was 52.4% – that’s a drop since 1992 of 23.2 percentage points.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:10:34 +0000

Interesting piece of trivia: in the 1992 election, this seat had the lowest turnout of any of the 38 Welsh seats: 73.3%, which is surprisingly high. In England the lowest turnout in 1992 was in Peckham (53.8%) and in Scotland it was Glasgow Central (63.0%).