Surrey South West
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26920 (50.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 20939 (39.3%)
Labour: 4191 (7.9%)
Other: 1173 (2.2%)
Majority: 5981 (11.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26420 (50.4%)
Labour: 4150 (7.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 20709 (39.5%)
UKIP: 958 (1.8%)
Other: 172 (0.3%)
Majority: 5711 (10.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22462 (45.3%)
Labour: 4321 (8.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 21601 (43.6%)
UKIP: 1208 (2.4%)
Majority: 861 (1.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25165 (44.6%)
Labour: 5333 (9.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 22471 (39.8%)
Referendum: 2830 (5%)
Other: 659 (1.2%)
Majority: 2694 (4.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Jeremy Hunt(Conservative) Born 1966, Godalming. Educated at Charterhouse and Oxford University. Prior to his election worked as an English language teacher and in PR and publishing. First elected as MP for South West Surrey in 2005. Shadow minister for the disabled 2005-2007, Shadow secretary of state for Culture, Media and Sport since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Jeremy Hunt(Conservative) Born 1966, Godalming. Educated at Charterhouse and Oxford University. Prior to his election worked as an English language teacher and in PR and publishing. First elected as MP for South West Surrey in 2005. Shadow minister for the disabled 2005-2007, Shadow secretary of state for Culture, Media and Sport since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Richard Mollet (Labour) Born Swansea. Educated at Olchfa Comprehensive and Oxford University. Former Royal Navy officer, now working in political communications
Mike Simpson (Liberal Democrat) Born 1959, London. Educated at Kings Grammar School, Ottery St Mary, and Portsmouth Polytechnic. CEO of local YMCA. Newbury councillor 1987-1991. Berkshire county councillor 1989-1993. Contested North West Hampshire 1992.
Cherry Allan (Green) Campaigner for a national cyclists organisation.
Roger Meekins (UKIP) Contested Mole Valley 2005 for Veritas.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97690
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 9.3%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 76%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 4.1%
Graduates 16-74: 30.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76%
Social Housing: 13.4% (Council: 10.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
Which seats contained Elstead from 1885 to 1918? Was it in Farnham from 1918 to 1983?
Which seats have contained Elstead and Farnham since 1885?
Which constituencies have included Elstead and Farnham since 1885?
sorry I don’t know Harry- I did try.
It’s a difficult one.
The Greens have selected Cherry Allan here
looks like he/she will be battling it out with UKIP for 4th/5th then
The Farnham seat was very similar to this, certainly I’m pretty sure it contained Godalming & Haslemere as well as Farnham, i.e. the main towns of the present seat, and I think Hindhead. Not quite sure what changes there were other than minor ones.
Which seats have included Chiddingfold?
Jeremy Hunt has been referred to recently on the Canterbury thread. The point made was that his advocacy of Tory policy to protect museums is totally in conflict with Conservative Canterbury City council’s plans to close access to the nationally symbolic Westgate Tower and to the Roman Museum, which contains an in situ Roman pavement that Canterbury has an obligation to preserve. Both these museums are of course in the immediate vicinity of a World Heritage Site.
I confess I had to look up which seat Jeremy Hunt stood for, and I assumed it would be one in which unpopular Tory policies would not matter. But inconsistent and uncultured policies are exactly the sort of thing that could turn middle class moderate Conservatives in a seat like this to vote LibDem, if not at the next General Election at the one after.
Paradoxically, Jeremy Hunt’s personal long-term political future may be better served by a “hung” parliament in 2010 than a Conservative victory, with its subsequent possibilities of a protest LibDem vote. His relatively liberal Tory stance does look like one that will look happy if a Tory Government starts out on scorched earth “Cuts”, particularly with the LibDems positioned here to pick up the soft-hearted vote.
With respect to the likely position of the Green candidate, if Labour was on 7.9% they must be right in a dogfight with UKIP and the Greens for 3rd./4th/5th. place. Indeed, if UKIP hold onto some of the vote they gained in the Euroelections, they must have serious hopes here of saving their deposit and coming second, admittedly a very poor second. Conversely, Labour must be worried about saving their deposit. The Greens’ problems are that they are likely to be faced by tactical voting in view of the strong LibDem challenge here, and their recent selection of a candidate does not suggest that this is one of their main targets. But of course, like UKIP, they will hope to capitalise on the Euroelections.
P.S. Further to my previous comment, I don’t think the Electoral Calculus predictions will be particularly good here because of the Green intervention, the likely increased UKIP vote and because Labour are so near floor already.. However, for what it is worth, Electoral Calculus has Labour on 4.98%, so their deposit is in the balance.
Frederic – it is possible but improbable that UKIP could beat Labour here, however Labour’s vote is already pretty well squeezed to a minimum and with presumably a diminished LD campaign here with them no doubt concentrating on next door GUildford, there is even some scope for a modest recovery in Labours vote. There is absolutely no chance that UKIp will beat the LDs into second place. They only very narrowly achieved that in the european elections themslves when Waverley council area provided the third highest Conservative share of any counting area after the highly unusual Gibralter and Kensington & Chelsea and actually one of the lower UKIP votes in the region.
The LibDems are going to come second.
I guess UKIP’s best long-term prospect is if the LibDems here become discredited as part of a Labour/LibDem dominated “hung” parliament, or to a lesser extent if Labour actually win, and if the right then look for a party which is democratic but harder line than the Tories, who will be pretty demoralised if they lose.
More generally, we are all thinking about this year’s General Election, but as the polls are moving perhaps we should start thinking what will happen if the Conservatives find themselves in opposition yet again. It would be a blow at least as bitter as that Labour suffered in 1992.
Jeremy Hunt today launched the Tory Party’s Arts Manifesto in the Guardian. You couldn’t make this up.
Short of Cameron getting caught in a three-in-a-bed romp with livestock I can’t see any way Labour will get a majority and even the hung parliament calculations floating about mean that it looks unlikely that Labour could get anywhere close to being the largest party and able to govern.
The Tories are not going to be in opposition (sadly) in the next parliament.
“Jeremy Hunt today launched the Tory Party’s Arts Manifesto in the Guardian. You couldn’t make this up.”
Are right wing politicians not allowed to have a policy on the arts or talk to national newspapers?