112 Responses to “Stroud”

1. akmd

   Not only is the seat still in play for Labour but David Drew is the candidate once again for the party. I can see this being won by him with a similar majority to the current MP. It’s certainly a better Labour prospect than Gloucester, Forest of Dean or even Swindon which would certainly have baffled psephologists of the past!

   October 26th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
2. swanarcadian

   He is probably the best choice of Labour candidate for this seat – it could turn out to be a battle for the incumbency vote. Had he stood down in 2010 the swing would have been larger.

   October 26th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
3. Tim Jones

   History tends not to be kind to those who re-seek office after getting the boot from the same voters, but David Drew clearly had a strong personal vote and with the polls as they are, Labour would fancy their chances – althoiugh with the economy now on the up, I really do think this could be as good as it gets for them

   October 26th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
4. THE RESULTS

   I see your point Tim. There were of course a large number of MPs (Mostly Tories) who were defeated in 1997 who recontested their seats in 2001- I believe Henry Bellingham and Bob Spink were the only ones who got back in at the first attempt. Others included the legendary Iain Sproat, Robin Squire, Phil Gallie, Elizabeth Peacock, David Evenett and Sir Malcolm Rifkind. All six of these as well as Bellingham and Spink succeeded in increasing the Tory shares of the vote. It just goes to show that keeping on the former MPs in their former constituencies can help work wonders long-term- Indeed, as a result of Sproat, Squire and Evenett all standing again, their respective seats of Harwich, Hornchurch and Bexleyheath and Crayford were all able to be retaken by the Conservatives in 2005.

   October 26th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
5. A Cairns

   I remember Tim Jones claiming that Neil Carmichael was to the left of David Drew??!!

   October 26th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
6. Barnaby Marder

   Stroud as a constituency may not be as “grotty” as certain others, but it does contain quite a bit of manufacturing industry in smallish industrial towns such as Dursley (it’s probable that most of you have used toilet paper manufactured there!). Nevertheless even Dursley can be won by the Tories in a decent year for them. Stroud itself does have some rather New Age residents who probably tend towards the Green Party in local elections but Labour in general ones, especially since 1992. There are some idyllic rural spots in the constituency but by and large it shouldn’t be characterised as a rural seat; it’s more small-town industrial.
   Re David Drew, he supported the abortive leadership bid of John McDonnell, so he seems to belong conclusively to the Left of the Party. That is, unless he has a strong personal friendship with McDonnell, which is possible – my mother for example greatly respected him as GLC Deputy Leader whilst disliking Livingstone quite intensely, (she did reluctantly vote for him this year though as well as in 2008) though her politics are certainly not of the hard Left.

   October 26th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
7. Hannah

   Having a popular Labour incumbent has the knock on benefits of perhaps opening minds to Labour, more generally, and also helps to maintain a local party machinery that can aid in other elections.

   David Drew is very much to the left of his party- economically, and was part of the Socialist Campaign Group, but also socially conservative and eurosceptic:

   http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?id=uk.org.publicwhip/member/1850

   October 26th, 2012 at 7:19 pm
8. Tim Jones

   I always thought david drew was a right wing (well right wing for a labour MP) populist in the frank field/kate hoey mould and had no idea that he was a member of the left-wing socialist campaign group

   by the descriptions above he seems more like an old school labour mp – one of the last of a dying breed

   October 26th, 2012 at 7:32 pm
9. John Chanin

   David Drew is a pssionate local resident of Stroud. And he gets support for articulating this. There is no question he hugely outran Labour support in 2010 here. So Labour’s chances in 2015 are not as good as they may appear even with David Drew continuing to represent them.. I run a “Lab-Con” spraedsheet which shows the relative position of the two parties. Stroud showed a Labour high of 297 in 2010, which is much higher than it has even been in the past and shows a huge personal vote for David Drew. These personal votes always erode over a parliamentary term, but there is no doubt that a popular former MP will always outpoll a brand new candiadte, The “double incumbency” effect has become a commonplace, and is well represented by the 2001 resuts where Labour held almost all of the seats they unexpectedly won in 1997.

   Stroud is also not as rural as many outsiders assume, so is not as unexpected a Labour seat as say MK North or St Albans where the 1997 result was baffling. It has a good football team in the Conference (Forest Green Rovers).

   I don’t think David Drew is “right-wing” or “left-wing” – these terms are obsolete. He represents a more modern synthesis of political views which has been termed “new Labour”, but which I prefer to see as Christian Democrat. He also articulates the attitudes of people outside the cities who don’t support the feudal hunting hierarchical establishment, which is much larger than is sometimes lazily assumed.

   Personally I wish him the best, although I doubt Labour will be ridng high enough come 2015 to get him back intio parliament.

   October 26th, 2012 at 8:13 pm
10. Adam

    Stroud News & Journal report that Stroud is 16th on Labour’s list of target seats – by comparison Gloucester, which is more urban and less white, is 38th. Last 2 GE results were pretty marginal either way so I don’t think Labour would have to be doing that well to get in, especially as the LD vote at last GE was well up on previous and may be soft.

    David Drew certainly had a strong personal vote and this will I think help energise local activists, but I don’t know how many ordinary voters will remember his record by the GE. On the other hand, my perception is that Carmichael has not impressed and has little personal vote.

    January 21st, 2013 at 10:26 pm
11. progressivevicar

    John and Adam approve of David Drew but I am not sure all do. This based on poverty is just as likely to fall as Gloucester, no more so as it has a greater feeling of prosperity: fewer closed shops, more rural and independent town businesses that in my view override a mere percentages analysis. Much will depend on Govt welcoming new businesses to these isles and local entrepreneurialism.

    January 23rd, 2013 at 6:49 pm
12. Adam

    @ ProgVicar

    Just seen your comment!

    I’m sure not all approve of D. Drew – I didn’t say I did btw and didn’t vote for him last time. But I do feel that he is still a local “name”, especially since election as District Councillor, whereas I feel that Carmichael has disappointed. I’d be interested in your views if you feel the contrary – it’s only my own personal impression and I may be letting my politics influence me.

    I was really merely pointing that this is more of a target for Labour than outsiders might expect – and I don’t think poverty has anything to do with it, Stroud is not a poor area.

    February 8th, 2013 at 11:37 pm