Comments on: Stretford and Urmston

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 09:28:00 +0000

So the Conservatives would need to lose 6 seats to lose control of Trafford. That isn’t going to happen next year but could certainly over 2 years but would require some very bad results both years. I do think they will probably lose their majority in Walsall next year which would leave Trafford and Dudley as the only Conservative controlled Met boroughs, but there is quite a good chance they could retake a majority in Solihull.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 08:23:11 +0000

I meant to include Flixton in that discussion, which is of course more vulnerable than any of the wards in Altrincham or Sale

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 08:19:17 +0000

It was even more significant than that because another Labour ward in the Stretford are was abolished (Park or Talbot – basically both wards merged into Gorse Hill) and two wards were created in the area of the old Mersey St Marys and ST Martins wards which are both fairly reliable for the Conservatives. So effectively two Labour wards were abolished and two Tory wards created. That said those two wards (ashton upon Mersey and St Marys) could probably be won by Labour if things start going bad for the Tories. I’d say the likelihood is they will lose Urmston next year but if things are going badly they could lsoe these two and could start to come under pressure in Altrincham and Broadheath wards which they lost in the mid 90s.
That kind of scenario would need to happen in both 2011 and 2012 though for the Tories to lose their majority

By: RR

RR — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 00:16:00 +0000

The Conservatives in Trafford have also, since the 1990s, been helped by the last round of ward boundary changes that essentially abolished a Labour ward in Ashton upon Mersey (St. Martin’s…merged with Bucklow), and created an extra safe Conservative ward in Hale (Hale split into Hale Central and Hale Barns), because of population changes.

However it is clear the Tories cannot count upon the Davyhulmes and Urmston in a tough year. Stretford itself was also once (e.g. May 1992) marginal.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 00:07:31 +0000

Trafford

I am a bit concerned we’ll have NOC here within about 2 years – but maybe not,
as a distinctive council.

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 15:40:44 +0000

I didn’t either, but with the retiring of Beverley Hughes and the selection of a local councillor as Conservative candidate, I would have hoped for a modest improvement in the vote.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 12:46:14 +0000

This is one of the most disappointing Con results of all – I didn’t believe it was winnable though.

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 12:17:27 +0000

Sorry, I meant councillor

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 12:17:10 +0000

Richard – Alex Williams is actually a Trafford council (albeit for a very wealthy ward in Altrincham & Sale West). Labour also regained Urmston at the local elections. V poor Conservative performance overall

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 08:08:25 +0000

Are there any other previous chief execs of the Child Poverty Action Group in Parliament? Frank Field was as well, many moons ago.