Stretford and Urmston
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12886 (28.69%)
Labour: 21821 (48.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 7601 (16.92%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.36%)
Green: 916 (2.04%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
Majority: 8935 (19.9%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19939 (51.1%)
Conservative: 11757 (30.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5521 (14.1%)
Other: 1814 (4.6%)
Majority: 8181 (21%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11566 (30.4%)
Labour: 19417 (51%)
Liberal Democrat: 5323 (14%)
UKIP: 845 (2.2%)
Other: 950 (2.5%)
Majority: 7851 (20.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10565 (27.1%)
Labour: 23804 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3891 (10%)
Other: 713 (1.8%)
Majority: 13239 (34%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14840 (30.5%)
Labour: 28480 (58.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3978 (8.2%)
Referendum: 1397 (2.9%)
Majority: 13640 (28%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Kate Green (Labour) Formerly chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group. Recieved an OBE in 2005.
Alex Williams (Conservative) Chartered accountant. Trafford councillor. Contested Bury South 2005, North West region 2009 European elections.Kate Green (Labour) Formerly chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group. Recieved an OBE in 2005.
Stephen Cooke (Liberal Democrat) 
Margaret Westbrook (Green) Contested North West region in 2009 European elections.David Owen (UKIP) Samuel Jacob (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92722
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 23.7%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 9.9%
White: 87%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 6.5%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 74.2%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 17.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.3%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 8.7%)
Privately Rented: 8.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.2%
Just had a look on Rosa Battle’s website – as well as having her own blog (http://rosabattle.wordpress.com/)where she has done such things as take a bus trip and go to a library in the last month, she also says;
“If selected Rosa intends to build upon what Labour have already achieved in Stretford and Urmston both locally and nationally and work to make sure our area is a ‘Tory Free Zone’”
Someone should tell her there are 12 Conservative councillors in Stretford & Urmston!
Which constituencies have included Davyhulme and Trafford Park since 1885? (Davyhulme obviously had its own seat from 1983 to 1997.)
I still think it’s unlikely (although not out of the question) that the Tories would win here.
Rather a divided seat, still some potential for a large swing but also a very definite ceiling on it I think which is still in Labour’s favour.
Labour have selected Kate Green here, Chief Executive of Child Poverty Action Group
The Conservatives have selected Trafford councillor Alex Williams – he stood in Bury South in 2005 and Norrth West England in 2009 Euros )husband of Susan Williams). The other finalist was Karen Buckley, a Fylde councillor.
Winston Churchill, MP for Stretford ’70-’83, and Davyhulme ’83-’97, has died aged 69.
His obituary in the Telegraph is quite a sad read… he never really managed to escape his grandfather’s shadow.
Michael McManus has withdrawn as UKIP candidate, apparently (heard that from him directly, and in writing.)
No news on a replacement. If there isn’t one, that would presumably be good news for the Tories.
Since 1885 which constituencies have included Davyhulme and Trafford Park? (Davyhulme obviously had its own seat from 1983 to 1997.)
Since 1885 which constituencies have included Davyhulme and Trafford Park? (The former obviously had its own seat from 1983 to 1997)
Davyhulme was in Eccles 1885-1918 and in Stretford from 1918 to 1983. Trafford Park has obviously always been part of a Stretford seat
David Owen has confirmed that he will be standing for UKIP
Lab Hold= 4,000 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 6200
Lab maj 3,000
[Live in the constituency] I’m going with Con Gain with Maj >2000
LAB HOLD (4500 maj)
LAB HOLD
A very good result here for Labour. Their majority increased despite predictions here that it would decrease. Kate Green was an excellent candidate and I’m sure she’ll be a fantastic MP.
I didn’t expect a particularly brilliant result here for the Conservatives here. Even in the 2008 locals we only just edged ahead in the aggregate vote.
Doesn’t look like the cleverest career move by the Conservative candidate to go from Bury South to here.
Personally I believed Worsley was a much more likely Conservative gain and so it turned out.
I’ve only noticed this properly – very bad result.
Thought there was a low swing – didn’t see that the Con vote fell.
Are there any other previous chief execs of the Child Poverty Action Group in Parliament? Frank Field was as well, many moons ago.
Richard – Alex Williams is actually a Trafford council (albeit for a very wealthy ward in Altrincham & Sale West). Labour also regained Urmston at the local elections. V poor Conservative performance overall
Sorry, I meant councillor
This is one of the most disappointing Con results of all – I didn’t believe it was winnable though.
I didn’t either, but with the retiring of Beverley Hughes and the selection of a local councillor as Conservative candidate, I would have hoped for a modest improvement in the vote.
Trafford
I am a bit concerned we’ll have NOC here within about 2 years – but maybe not,
as a distinctive council.
The Conservatives in Trafford have also, since the 1990s, been helped by the last round of ward boundary changes that essentially abolished a Labour ward in Ashton upon Mersey (St. Martin’s…merged with Bucklow), and created an extra safe Conservative ward in Hale (Hale split into Hale Central and Hale Barns), because of population changes.
However it is clear the Tories cannot count upon the Davyhulmes and Urmston in a tough year. Stretford itself was also once (e.g. May 1992) marginal.
It was even more significant than that because another Labour ward in the Stretford are was abolished (Park or Talbot – basically both wards merged into Gorse Hill) and two wards were created in the area of the old Mersey St Marys and ST Martins wards which are both fairly reliable for the Conservatives. So effectively two Labour wards were abolished and two Tory wards created. That said those two wards (ashton upon Mersey and St Marys) could probably be won by Labour if things start going bad for the Tories. I’d say the likelihood is they will lose Urmston next year but if things are going badly they could lsoe these two and could start to come under pressure in Altrincham and Broadheath wards which they lost in the mid 90s.
That kind of scenario would need to happen in both 2011 and 2012 though for the Tories to lose their majority
I meant to include Flixton in that discussion, which is of course more vulnerable than any of the wards in Altrincham or Sale
So the Conservatives would need to lose 6 seats to lose control of Trafford. That isn’t going to happen next year but could certainly over 2 years but would require some very bad results both years. I do think they will probably lose their majority in Walsall next year which would leave Trafford and Dudley as the only Conservative controlled Met boroughs, but there is quite a good chance they could retake a majority in Solihull.
This constituency is of course the most affluent in the land, with almost no social problems.
This leaves the local MP with nothing better to do with her time than complain about the type of beer being sold in the House of Commons Strangers Bar.
The people of Stretford and Urmston are fortunate indeed in these difficult times to have Kate Green as their member, speaking up on the issues that really matter to them.
Ridiculously over PC rubbish typical of blair/brown babes. Real ales often have jokey/non serious names. If that name was used to describe a real woman it would be undoubtedly sexist. It isnt so its not. Kate Green should get over herself.