Stretford and Urmston
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12886 (28.69%)
Labour: 21821 (48.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 7601 (16.92%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.36%)
Green: 916 (2.04%)
Christian: 178 (0.4%)
Majority: 8935 (19.9%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19939 (51.1%)
Conservative: 11757 (30.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5521 (14.1%)
Other: 1814 (4.6%)
Majority: 8181 (21%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11566 (30.4%)
Labour: 19417 (51%)
Liberal Democrat: 5323 (14%)
UKIP: 845 (2.2%)
Other: 950 (2.5%)
Majority: 7851 (20.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10565 (27.1%)
Labour: 23804 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3891 (10%)
Other: 713 (1.8%)
Majority: 13239 (34%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14840 (30.5%)
Labour: 28480 (58.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3978 (8.2%)
Referendum: 1397 (2.9%)
Majority: 13640 (28%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Kate Green (Labour) Formerly chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group. Recieved an OBE in 2005.
Alex Williams (Conservative) Chartered accountant. Trafford councillor. Contested Bury South 2005, North West region 2009 European elections.Kate Green (Labour) Formerly chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group. Recieved an OBE in 2005.
Stephen Cooke (Liberal Democrat) 
Margaret Westbrook (Green) Contested North West region in 2009 European elections.David Owen (UKIP) Samuel Jacob (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92722
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 23.7%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 9.9%
White: 87%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 6.5%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 74.2%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 0.9%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 17.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.3%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 8.7%)
Privately Rented: 8.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.2%
I didn’t either, but with the retiring of Beverley Hughes and the selection of a local councillor as Conservative candidate, I would have hoped for a modest improvement in the vote.
Trafford
I am a bit concerned we’ll have NOC here within about 2 years – but maybe not,
as a distinctive council.
The Conservatives in Trafford have also, since the 1990s, been helped by the last round of ward boundary changes that essentially abolished a Labour ward in Ashton upon Mersey (St. Martin’s…merged with Bucklow), and created an extra safe Conservative ward in Hale (Hale split into Hale Central and Hale Barns), because of population changes.
However it is clear the Tories cannot count upon the Davyhulmes and Urmston in a tough year. Stretford itself was also once (e.g. May 1992) marginal.
It was even more significant than that because another Labour ward in the Stretford are was abolished (Park or Talbot – basically both wards merged into Gorse Hill) and two wards were created in the area of the old Mersey St Marys and ST Martins wards which are both fairly reliable for the Conservatives. So effectively two Labour wards were abolished and two Tory wards created. That said those two wards (ashton upon Mersey and St Marys) could probably be won by Labour if things start going bad for the Tories. I’d say the likelihood is they will lose Urmston next year but if things are going badly they could lsoe these two and could start to come under pressure in Altrincham and Broadheath wards which they lost in the mid 90s.
That kind of scenario would need to happen in both 2011 and 2012 though for the Tories to lose their majority
I meant to include Flixton in that discussion, which is of course more vulnerable than any of the wards in Altrincham or Sale
So the Conservatives would need to lose 6 seats to lose control of Trafford. That isn’t going to happen next year but could certainly over 2 years but would require some very bad results both years. I do think they will probably lose their majority in Walsall next year which would leave Trafford and Dudley as the only Conservative controlled Met boroughs, but there is quite a good chance they could retake a majority in Solihull.