368 Responses to “Streatham”

1. akmd

   As Barnaby said earlier, Clapham Town does have some very upmarket roads and these are mostly located in the Old Town area. There has also been a new development called Wingate Square which has likely brought Tory-leaning voters into the ward. HH is also correct that it is a far better prospect for the Tories than Streatham Hill is nowadays.

   And yet despite that, they have struggled to get councillors elected here. Bernard Gentry just about managed to get elected in 2002 but lost his seat in the 2006 locals where Lambeth was one of Labour’s bright spots in an otherwise poor election in London. The GE turnout last year stopped him from being re-elected and the three incumbent Labour councillors enjoyed increased majorities.

   They are unlikely to win the ward in the short term. There is still substantial council housing here and there are terraced streets at the back of Clapham High Street which are more run down than the streets surrounding the Old Town and these are also far more likely to be multi-occupancy flats which may even council owned. The sizeable Lib Dem vote is also likely to be from ex-Labour voters and this will further cushion the party in this ward. I don’t think they have anything to fear for at least another election.

   November 5th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
2. H.Hemmelig

   Yes that’s all true. But even though Labour are likely to continue winning the ward in the foreseeable future, the fact remains that it is better for the Tories than Streatham Hill, hence preferable to include in the Clapham Common seat.

   Incidentally I wouldn’t describe 2002 as a bad local election year for Labour in London. For a mid-term local election 5 years into a Labour government, it was pretty good, and I think Labour narrowly outpolled the Tories across London. Certainly they held councils like Bexley – which would be unthinkable now – and also more classic bellweathers like Croydon and Ealing.

   November 5th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
3. akmd

   I agree that including Clapham Town in the Clapham Common seat makes things better for the Tories. It is also better for Labour’s prospects in Battersea & Vauxhall as that ward was the only one with a decent Tory vote and adding Larkhall in its place tilts it even further in their favour.

   I was actually referring to 2006 being a bad result for Labour rather than 2002. I certainly can’t see them winning Bexley again in the near future although at least their prospects there are rosier than those in neighbouring Bromley where I struggle to see where we can make any gains. Ealing was won handily last year while Croydon is a likely gain in 2014 and will surely become reliable for Labour in the long term.

   November 5th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
4. Barnaby Marder

   In fact Labour GAINED Bexley in 2002, the Tories having taken control in 1998 after a period of NOC. But it must have been for purely local reasons, as it certainly wasn’t replicated in the general election of 2005, when David Evennett easily took Bexleyheath & Crayford from Labour.
   Vis a vis Croydon, Labour’s problem there is that both Fieldway & New Addington are 2-member wards. If Labour takes the Tory seat in the latter, it still leaves the Tories with a majority of 2, since all their wards are 3-member. There are no straightforward further gains & Labour would need to take 2 seats in Waddon, or maybe one in Ashburton (a longer shot) to take control. That is certainly possible but would still require a decent swing and I am not 100% confident at this stage, not yet. If anything I reckon Labour’s easiest gain in 2014 looks like Redbridge where the actual swing required is quite small, requiring only the outright winning of the currently split wards and a partial victory in Hainault; Croydon & Merton could be cliffhangers even if Labour is enjoying a fairly decent national lead at that point (though Labour would certainly fancy winning half the seats in the latter).

   November 5th, 2011 at 8:21 pm
5. Pete Whitehead

   Labour’s gain of Bexley in 2002 had noting to do with local reasons and everything to do with the ward boundary changes which had been enacted for those elections. There was actually a swing of nearly 4% from Labour to Conservative in Bexley in 2002 and the Conservatives outpolled Labour by 42% to 33%. basically Labour had succeeded in getting their ward boundary plan adopted by the LGBCE which resulted in them being able to win a number of wards by very narrow margins (eg Colyers and Lesnes Abbey, both of which were essentially succesors to Tory held wards but which had Labour voting areas added) while the Tories piled up large majorities in most of their wards. Even so their wafer thin majority depended upon them still being able to win in places like East Wickham, which is indeed pretty unthinkable now – indeed they hardly seem able to challenge in Crayford these days.
   Of course in Croydon also the Conservatives easily outpolled Labour in the popular vote in 2002 and agaiin Labour won a majoirty due to a more efficient distribution of their vote. The same thing happened also in 1994 and 1998 so in fact for 12 years Labour had a majority in Croydon without ever having won the popular vote

   November 5th, 2011 at 8:33 pm
6. Joe James B

   I didn’t realise there was a swing as high as 4% to the Tories in Bexley in 2002, but noticed it was a similar distortion to Croydon.

   Nevertheless, it seemed an odd place to revert from Conservative to Labour in 2002, even though that was only the start of a very long way back.
   It seemed just the sort of place that the Tories would recover first.

   On Streatham, I think there are some posts before the last election suggesting the Lib Dems could be a serious threat.
   Those look like “Plopwell” predictions now.

   November 5th, 2011 at 10:54 pm
7. akmd

   Yes, I think most of us can agree that last year was as close as they are ever going to get in winning this seat. The boundary changes will put it well out of their reach. If Streatham Hill is put in the seat, they would at least still be in second place notionally.

   November 5th, 2011 at 11:02 pm
8. Barnaby Marder

   Thanks for the explanation Pete. What you say about Croydon is true, but it’s worth noting that Labour did outpoll the Tories in the popular vote in that borough in both 1997 & 2001 in the general elections.

   November 5th, 2011 at 11:15 pm
9. Pete Whitehead

   Indeed they did as they did also in Westminster, but it is more noteworthy in the context of what we are discussing that they did not ever win the popular vote in local elections even as they were winning a majority – they never have done in fact, at least since the borough was expanded in 1964 (unlike Bexley which Labour did carry in 1964 and 1971 and were very close in 1994 and 1998).
   The only London boroughs carried by the Conservatives in 1997 were Bromley, Kensington & Chelsea and (rather paradoxically) Kingston. In 2001 they ‘gained’ Havering, but lost Kingston

   November 5th, 2011 at 11:33 pm
10. Joe James B

    Interesting about Kingston.Of course, that’s totally logical but it’s strange when you think about it compared to how few other places.
    As I’ve said, though, the swing was higher I think in the Kingston wards of Richmond Park
    compared to Richmond Borough,
    but still more Tory.

    November 5th, 2011 at 11:46 pm
11. Dalek

    “The only London boroughs carried by the Conservatives in 1997 were Bromley, Kensington & Chelsea and (rather paradoxically) Kingston.”

    Yes..I would agree with Kingston.

    I calculated that Richard Tracey would have held Surbiton by around 160 and Norman Lamont Kingston by around 700. This is because the Southern part of the old Kingston Upon Thames constituency was much more Liberal and the Northern part of the old Kingston Upon Thames constituency was much more Tory.

    The knock on effect would have been that if it had not been for the boundary changes, Jeremy Hanley would have lost Richmond & Barns by far more than 2951 (perhaps 6500 – 7500 on a smaller electorate).

    November 6th, 2011 at 8:40 am
12. Barnaby Marder

    That’s clearly correct Peter, even in 1997 it was clear that the Tory vote in Coombe & Kingston Hill was to be weighed rather than counted. It was also clear that Jenny Tonge carried Tudor as well as Canbury but the Tories undoubtedly still enjoyed something of a lead in the Kingston-upon-Thames part of the constituency.

    November 6th, 2011 at 9:01 am
13. Andy JS

    Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:

    Brixton Hill: 51.3% / 41.4%
    Clapham Common: 63.0% / 56.0%
    St Leonard’s: 54.8% / 39.5%
    Streatham Hill: 54.3% / 42.5%
    Streatham South: 43.3% / 28.6%
    Streatham Wells: 52.0% / 35.7%
    Thornton: 52.9% / 43.2%
    Tulse Hill: 43.5% / 32.4%

    Streatham: 51.8% / 39.6%

    White overall, Streatham:
    2001: 64.3%
    2011: 58.2%

    There was a numerical increase in the white British population in Brixon Hill from 6,394 to 6,553. The total population of the ward increased from 12,458 to 15,842.

    February 1st, 2013 at 8:20 pm
14. Joe James B

    Some of these figures look rather high compared to some of the places which are still Con/Lab marginal…what’s been going on here -” is it vibrant” or trendy aswell.

    February 1st, 2013 at 8:24 pm
15. Andy JS

    Is Nappy Valley in this seat?

    February 1st, 2013 at 8:28 pm
16. Joe James B

    I’d have thought that would just be in Battersea, being the Northcote Road area
    but the point is pretty much the same with the Clapham common bit included.

    February 1st, 2013 at 8:50 pm
17. akmd

    If you mean Abbeville Village, then yes it is. The small fall in Clapham Common is no surprise. Brixton Hill is yet another area in this part of London that has been gentrifying. I wonder why Streatham Hill ward has seen less of a decline in white population than other. St Leonard’s (a former Tory stronghold) is particularly stark.

    February 1st, 2013 at 8:54 pm
18. Barnaby Marder

    It’s true that Brixton Hill has gentrified a bit, but some sections of the ward are still very poor. The Labour majority was not all that great in the ward in 2010, especially compared with Ferndale and, even more so, Tulse Hill & Coldharbour. However a by-election a week or so ago saw a very easy Labour hold in the ward.

    February 1st, 2013 at 10:30 pm