Stirling
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11204 (23.94%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6797 (14.53%)
SNP: 8091 (17.29%)
UKIP: 395 (0.84%)
Green: 746 (1.59%)
Majority: 8354 (17.86%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15729 (36%)
Conservative: 10962 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9052 (20.7%)
SNP: 5503 (12.6%)
Other: 2445 (5.6%)
Majority: 4767 (10.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8901 (24.8%)
Labour: 15175 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4208 (11.7%)
SNP: 5877 (16.4%)
Green: 757 (2.1%)
Other: 1012 (2.8%)
Majority: 6274 (17.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13971 (32.5%)
Labour: 20382 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 2675 (6.2%)
SNP: 5752 (13.4%)
Other: 178 (0.4%)
Majority: 6411 (14.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Anne McGuire (Labour) Born 1949, Glasgow. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis Secondary and Glasgow University. Prior to her elected was Deputy Director of SCVO. Strathclyde councillor 1980-1982. First elected as MP for Stirling in 1997. Chair of the Scottish Labour party 1992-1993. PPS to Donald Dewar 1997-1998, government whip 1998-2002, Under secretary of state for Scotland 2002-2003, for Constitutional Affairs 2003-2005, for Work and Pensions 2005-2008 (more information at They work for you)
Bob Dalrymple (Conservative) born 1975, Dumfries. Educated at Edinburgh university. Whisky marketeer. Contested Stirling and Mid Scotland & Fife region in 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.Anne McGuire (Labour) Born 1949, Glasgow. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis Secondary and Glasgow University. Prior to her elected was Deputy Director of SCVO. Strathclyde councillor 1980-1982. First elected as MP for Stirling in 1997. Chair of the Scottish Labour party 1992-1993. PPS to Donald Dewar 1997-1998, government whip 1998-2002, Under secretary of state for Scotland 2002-2003, for Constitutional Affairs 2003-2005, for Work and Pensions 2005-2008 (more information at They work for you)
Graham Reed (Liberal Democrat) Consultant and scientific glassblower. Stirling councillor
Alison Lindsay (SNP) Lecturer and qualified nurse. Clackmannan councillor. Contested West Scotland 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Airdrie and Shotts 2001. Was sbloeras SNP candidate for Argyll and Bute in 2005, but stepped down for personal reasons.
Mark Ruskell (Green)Paul Henke (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86212
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 23.1%
Over 60: 20.9%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 65.7%
Graduates 16-74: 26.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.7%
Owner-Occupied: 66.6%
Social Housing: 22.6% (Council: 20%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.4%
Indeed, people were astonished when Forsyth hung on in ’92, but when it went it swung almost irreversably to Labour. It was an unlikely SNP gain in 2007, where they came from third to take it, but the boundary changes give it notionally to Labour (at least according to Denver’s predictions). Peculiarly, John Curtice’s predictions on PoliticsHome, which were not that inaccurate, put Stirling down as a Conservative/Labour marginal even though East Renfrewshire was put in the Labour column.
The seat was always evenly balanced between the Tories and Labour. In both 1988 and 1992 the district council split 10-10 between the two parties, and a cut of the cards was required to decide who should end up running the authority (Labour in 1988, the Tories in 1992). The parliamentary seat in those days split 10-8 to the Tories in terms of wards won at local level, but the Labour areas (five of the Stirling town wards, the two Bannockburn wards, and Logie ward, which included the university) were generally more Labour than the Tory wards (two Stirling town wards, the two Dunblane wards, Bridge of Allan, and five western rural wards) were Tory.
I visited Stirling with my mother recently and was stunned at how ugly/deprived Raploch was on the way to the sainsburys even though I could remember from going to Stirling before that Bannockburn/St Ninian’s was poorer than the castle area.
Later on we visited callander, then killin and picked up a roadside grouse near Lochearnhead.
Is Killin good for Labour/SNP?
Well in 2007, Bruce Crawford beat Bob Dalrymple by 5 votes in Killin (147 to 142) while Sylvia Jackson had 98 votes and the Lib Dem 34. That probably suggests that in Westminster elections it is reasonably close between Labour and the tories with the SNP a reasonable third.
The alternative boundaries considered by the Holyrood BC was to -
Place Stirling Council Ward 3
(Dunblane and Bridge of Allan) in Stirling instead of Clackmannan & Dunblane
Place Stirling Council Ward 7 (Bannockburn) in Clackmannanshire instead of Stirling.
So the alternative would have been “Stirling” and “Clackmannanshire & Bannockburn”.
Stirling would have been a much better better bet for the Tories on the alternative boundaries, and Clackmannanshire would have been much better for Labour in their contest against the SNP.
It is ironic that Bannockburn is an area that is detrimental to the SNP. Outsiders would perhaps associate Bannockburn with being natural SNP territor on historical grounds but it is actually Labour heartland.
All the same, I do think that the Tories stand a good chance of getting Stirling back some day in the not too distant future. I mean, if it was in England I’m pretty sure it would definitely be Conservative, if not in 2005 certainly in 2010.
It would be interesting to see how boundary changes might alter this seat though, would it expand more into the Labour-leaning part of Stirlingshire, more to the south over the Fintry hills/Campsie Fells towards vaguely Tory places like Kilsyth which used to be in the county, or more into Perthshire?
“vaguely Tory places like Kilsyth”
You must have a very broad definition of ‘vague’
That’s amusing – Kilsyth must be one of the least Tory places in the UK. Maybe it’s more Tory than Cumbernauld.
It’s more Tory than Croxteth – but not much else
I mean it is only slightly more Tory than Cumbernauld yes, but I suspect it would have been a far more Tory place in days gone by.
A lot will depend on which Scottish local authorities get linked with each other. It’s possible that Stirling might acquire some of Clackmannanshire; equally it might acquire Kilsyth or Denny – or even both, though it would have to lose something else to make room for them (e.g. Dunblane/Bridge of Allan). If the Boundary Commission for Scotland are in a particularly lunatic mood they might even move rural west Stirlingshire into a much altered Argyll & Bute division. The possibilities are endless!
An Argyll, Bute and West Stirlingshire seat is possible and would probably be a 4 way marginal. I’m not sure what the notional result for 2010 would be.
That does sound like a ludicrously large seat geographically
The tories really have stagnated here – wonder if there is a way back for them like eating into the LD vote.
What are the odds of the Scottish Conservatives failing to win any constituency next year?
How I would laugh if they didn’t.
Though of course there would still be Scottish Conservative MSPs from the regional list.
I think the tories are ‘guaranteed’ 2/3 constituencies next year. They’ll struggle to win more than 4.
What are the odds of the Scottish Conservatives failing to win any constituency next year?
How I would laugh if they didn’t.
Though of course there would still be Scottish Conservative MSPs from the regional list.
Tory seats in order of probability 2011
1. Ettrick, Roxburgh & B
2. Galloway and West Dumfries
3. Ayr
4. Edinburgh Pentlands
5. Eastwood
6. Dumfriesshire
7. Kinrosshire & South P
……………
The Conservatives will be helped by the decline of the LibDems in Etterick etc and by the split opposition in Galloway.
I can see all the others being lost though.
It’s in their interest of the UK Conservatives for them to lose Eastwood and Pentlands as that would allow their Westminster equivalents to be immediately written off instead of them (and other Scottish seats) being the waste of resources they were this year.
It’s always sensible to bet on the Scottish Conservatives underachieving though.
Interestingly enough the council election results weren’t too bad for the tories in 2007 here in terms of vote share – they were not very far behind the SNP or Labour overall.
They got damaged by the electoral system though failing to elect a 2nd candidate in most of the wards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_2007
That is interesting, A. We did better in terms of vote share than I might have expected in 2007 in these council elections. We were the largest party in terms of vote share in the Stirling West ward which shows that, with support even in the city itself, a win here in the future (near or far!) is possible. Boundary changes may make this impossible of course.
Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Lab – 10000
SNP – 9000
Con – 8000
LD – 3000
Given that Michael Forsyth was a staunch Thatcherite, is it not surprising that he held this seat in 1987 and 1992?
He also held the swing down in 1997.
‘Given that Michael Forsyth was a staunch Thatcherite, is it not surprising that he held this seat in 1987 and 1992?’
I suppose he was the kind of working class tory people could relate too, that’s what my dad said anyway.
The Tory share dropped pretty in 2001 (although so did the Labour vote). Perhaps Forsyth mobilised the tory vote in Dunblane and Stirling town better.
Former tory support in Stirling seems and gone to all the other three parties now though and there’s also the drop in turnout.
Looks like Forsyth had something of a personal vote then. If he were to stand here in 2015, is it possible that the Tories might pick up here a little?
And Richard, we really ought to be winning Ayr and Edinburgh Pentlands also. I will be worried if we lose any of the four constituencies we currently hold, seeing as I reckon that we are already down to our core support with the 16.6% we got in 2007.
Eastwood and Dumfriesshire we should also be winning but I doubt we will… The candidates in these places may of course have good campaign teams I guess. And someone, Joe I think, said that the Tories had been quite underestimated in Dumfriesshire.
‘Looks like Forsyth had something of a personal vote then. If he were to stand here in 2015, is it possible that the Tories might pick up here a little?’
I doubt that now that he has a peerage he’ll be standing again here.
I don’t think the tories have any chance of gaining this seat now, due to the fact that labour support in Stirling, the eastern villages and western forth valley is still significant.
Argyll and Bute looks a more plausible tory target.
Yes, the addition of the eastern villages to this seat in 2005 made it harder for the Conservatives.
However, Bridge of Allan (probably still a fairly Tory town) was removed from this constituency in 1997 but re added in 2005.
In that year, or at least in 2010, the net effect should have been, that, at worst, the Tory vote equalled our 1997 performance. However, I acknowledge that Forsyth’s incumbancy (he did hold the swing down here) was a major factor behind this.
In 2010, the Tory vote here actually went backwards with a fair swing to Labour and I am still unsure as to why this was. After all we were only about 10% behind Labour in 2005. Perhaps the decline of the LD vote here was a factor as most of it went to Labour?
Though, in fact, the number of Tory votes was actually higher than in 2005. The fall was a percentage one, based on higher turnout, caused, I imagine, by the fact that it looked like being a government-changing election. That would have brought out the core Labour vote in a way that didn’t happen in 2005. Moreover, in retrospect, it appears that the Lib Dem vote in 2005 was unusually high (probably a consequence of Iraq; this is a university seat, after all), and went over (or went back) to Labour in 2010. Throw in a greatly increased SNP vote (because of the fact they hold the Holyrood seat) and that may well explain the result.
Re the eastern villages: I’m pretty sure that, had these been in the seat between 1983 and 1997, Forsyth would have won it only once (in 1983).
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the boundaries here. Perhaps Denny and possibly Larbert will be added to Stirling somehow because Falkirk is slightly oversized.
That would end once and for all any Conservative chances of winning the seat.
It must be unusual to find a seat in Scotland that is currently oversized…!
Barnaby, this would certainly be the case. Therefore, another option, (admittedly in our interests) would be to move part of Grangemouth into Linlithgow and East Falkirk.
It is ironic that although the reduction of seats is intended by the Conservatives to help them, in Scotland it may make winning seats even more difficult…
A reduction of seats will tend to militate against a party in an area where it has few seats – Labour in parts of the South & Midlands, and the Conservatives in Scotland, Wales and the urban North. If a seat which is winnable by a party is surrounded by others that aren’t, and it’s too small, then it goes out of the reach of the relevant party. In England and Scotland, which are less over-represented than Wales, it will tend to be the case that the boundary changes are unlikely to be fatal to Labour if – and only if – the party polls well in the country.
Alternatively it might be more plausible that Clackmannanshire is somehow linked with Stirling and Denny and possibly Larbert go into Cumbernauld and Kilsyth to make the numbers add up.
This part of Scotland is very tricky to predict in terms of new boundaries, because it will depend a lot on the knock-on effects from changes elsewhere. For instance, Fife is undersized for four seats, so will need extra territory from somewhere. Assuming that there’s no Tay Bridge seat (which would be something of a monstrosity), that means territory from Ochil & South Perthshire would be added to one or more of the Fife seats. That would leave O&SP undersized, so it would have to pick up territory from Stirling (Dunblane & Bridge of Allan? Teith & Trossachs? Both?) – which, in turn, would have to pick up further territory from elsewhere. No one area can be taken in isolation from another.
My own ‘solution’ to the new boundaries for this area would see Stirling lose Dunblane/Bridge of Allan to Ochil & South Perthshire, and gain Denny/Banknock from Falkirk, and Kilsyth from Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East. This would be bad news for the Tories as they’d drop to third behind Labour and the SNP on those boundaries, though their position would be improved in O&SP. Cumbernauld, meanwhile would be joined to Airdrie, Shotts to Motherwell & Wishaw, and East Dunbartonshire council would make up a single constituency. The main problem is that this solution would be very close to the 5% from quota limit, and in some cases beyond it, though that problem could be circumvented by crossing ward boundaries.
Sometimes I do wonder whether there is much point in changing the boundaries at all – from Barnaby’s comments it seems unlikely to change the status quo – surely our intention. The Conservatives will continue to do well in Southern England and poorly in Scotland and Wales, barring the ‘surge’ McLetchie talks of in the former of course haaa…
So Scotland is going to get 52 seats next time. But as Orkney & Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar are both guaranteed one, that means presumably mainland Scotland will get 50 seats at a slightly higher average (77,467). Given that at least a couple of seats (those that include the west highlands) are likely to be affected by the geographical rule, which might well result in more under quota seats, that means the rest of the country may end up with an average electorate that’s higher even than that. Presumably the Boundary Commission for Scotland will still be bound by the upper limit for Britain of 80,473, rather than 5% above 77,467 (namely 81,340)? If so, that may reduce their room for manoeuvre in a number of places.
This is likely to be a problem in a few places. I was having a play with Hertfordshire and it is within quota to still have 11 seats but the average electorate would be 73,812 which means every seat has to be close to that average to stop one falling below the lower threshold. Even with the relatively small wards in Hertfordshire that can be tricky (actually it was impossible without splitting wards but I was using an adaptation of the 2010 ward figures so now the real figures are out i’ll take another look
Presumably Hertfordshire could be twinned with a neighbouring county (e.g., Bedfordshire/Luton) to alleviate this problem?
Rather unhelpfully the BCS include only the electorates for local elections, which are 1-2% above the general election electorates in most cases (slightly more in the cities), so it’s quite hard to come up with hard and fast figures.
That’s a very interesting point.
Does the electorate figure used in general elections include people who are on the register but can’t vote in general elections?
Citizens from other EU countries would be in this category, and must make up quite a large number of certain seats especially in Inner London.
Someone plausibly claimed that this is a major contributing factor to falling turnout in elections in inner city seats since 1997.
I’ll be a first time voter at the next election. I live in Denny, what are the chances we’ll be in the Stirling seat rather than Falkirk?
What are the chances of a very close 3-way battle here?
‘What are the chances of a very close 3-way battle here?’
In the holyrood battle? – none I would imagine as Bruce Crawford (SNP) may try and cream off some tactical Tory votes to try and hold on.
Denny is in Falkirk Council, therefore it will be in Falkirk West.
H Hemmilig
There are various registers kept according to differing rights to vote, In the Scottish elections forthcoming the AV vote will be at a seperate booth using a different register (excluding A8 nationals etc). The difference is big. However I presume turn-out figures are by the relevant registers. Polish peaople have told me that banks now insist you are on the voters role so the register may include many who have no thought of voting. This may depress turn-out figures but may have a liittle positive for Labour’s vote and make some impact on the re-drawn boundaries.
There is a separate parliamentary electorate which is used for drawing up parliamentary constituencies which means that these are not skewed by the presence of large numbers of eg. EU nationals who do qualify to vote in local elections. This means that the suggestion that this could contribute to falling turnout is not so plausible.
Does the Scottish parliament use the local election register? it would seem to me to be a bit of a grey area whether it counts as a parliamentary election or a local election, but obviously it must have been classified one way or the other
Danny95: do you mean in the next Westminster election or the forthcoming Holyrood election? If the latter, then none, since, as Dalek says, Denny is in Fakirk West.
If the former, then I’ve no idea. Since my post of March 3, the BCS’s announcement about the boundaries’ being redrawn has come out, and I realized that my previous ‘solutions’ wouldn’t work within their rules. I’ve drawn up some alternatives, which would involve Denny and Banknock being transferred to a redrawn Cumbernauld & Kilsyth seat, rather than to Stirling. I can’t honestly see its remaining in Falkirk, given the likely knock-on effects; but then again I don’t know the workings of the minds of the Boundary Commission for Scotland. I suppose I could send them my suggestions and claim that it reflects the spirit of public voluntarism of the Big Society…
A total disaster for the Tories. I think the SNP will replace them in 2nd place at the next election.