Stirling
2005 Results:
Labour: 15729 (36%)
Conservative: 10962 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9052 (20.7%)
SNP: 5503 (12.6%)
Other: 2445 (5.6%)
Majority: 4767 (10.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8901 (24.8%)
Labour: 15175 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4208 (11.7%)
SNP: 5877 (16.4%)
Green: 757 (2.1%)
Other: 1012 (2.8%)
Majority: 6274 (17.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13971 (32.5%)
Labour: 20382 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 2675 (6.2%)
SNP: 5752 (13.4%)
Other: 178 (0.4%)
Majority: 6411 (14.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Anne McGuire (Labour) Born 1949, Glasgow. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis Secondary and Glasgow University. Prior to her elected was Deputy Director of SCVO. Strathclyde councillor 1980-1982. First elected as MP for Stirling in 1997. Chair of the Scottish Labour party 1992-1993. PPS to Donald Dewar 1997-1998, government whip 1998-2002, Under secretary of state for Scotland 2002-2003, for Constitutional Affairs 2003-2005, for Work and Pensions 2005-2008 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Bob Dalrymple (Conservative) born 1975, Dumfries. Educated at Edinburgh university. Whisky marketeer. Contested Stirling and Mid Scotland & Fife region in 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.Anne McGuire (Labour) Born 1949, Glasgow. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis Secondary and Glasgow University. Prior to her elected was Deputy Director of SCVO. Strathclyde councillor 1980-1982. First elected as MP for Stirling in 1997. Chair of the Scottish Labour party 1992-1993. PPS to Donald Dewar 1997-1998, government whip 1998-2002, Under secretary of state for Scotland 2002-2003, for Constitutional Affairs 2003-2005, for Work and Pensions 2005-2008 (more information at They work for you)
Graham Reed (Liberal Democrat) Consultant and scientific glassblower. Stirling councillor
Alison Lindsay (SNP) Lecturer and qualified nurse. Clackmannan councillor. Contested West Scotland 1999 Scottish Parliament election, Airdrie and Shotts 2001. Was sbloeras SNP candidate for Argyll and Bute in 2005, but stepped down for personal reasons.
Paul Henke (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86212
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 23.1%
Over 60: 20.9%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 65.7%
Graduates 16-74: 26.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.7%
Owner-Occupied: 66.6%
Social Housing: 22.6% (Council: 20%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.4%
Re Frederic’s point about the 1983 Boundary change in Stirlingshire. First of all, the actual Boundary Commission that made these proposals had reported in the late 1970s but its proposal were rejected by the 1974-1979 Labour Government (primarily because it was perceived that Labour would lose seats)
The Commission in drawing its conclusions had taken full cogniscance of the 1972 Local Government Scotland Act which introduced and new two-tier structure for local government and the Boundary Commission sought to ensure wherever possible, parliamentary and local government boundaries would be the same.
With Stirlingshire, the Kilsyth area had to be taken out since it was now part of Strathclyde Region and preumeably placed with Cumbernauld. Two or three other areas had also gone to Strathclyde to be incorporated into other Strathclyde seats. In additional Central Region “gained” Bo’ness from West Lothian and much of South Perthshire also came into the region so they would have to be incorporated into one of the Central Region seats. For information, the Region had three District Councils: Stirling, Falkirk and Clackmannanshire.
Number-wise Central Region in 1977 merited four seats. Falkirk District met the requirements for two seats so it was relatively easy to split them into East and West with the old West Stirlingshire Wards of Bonnybridge, Denny and Dunipace (all now part of Falkirk District Council) going into Falkirk West along with the bulk of the Burgh of Falkirk and smaller communities such as Larbert and Stenhousemuir.
Where Stirling District was concerned, the electorate was sufficient for one and one thirds seat swhile Clackmannanshire was sufficient for Two thirds of a seat. TIt was relatively easy for the Commission to place the Carseland villages of Plean, Cowie and Fallin in with Clackmannanshire. This was the most contentious part of the Commission recommendations.
Dennis Canavan was only elected in February 1974 so while the Boundary Commission was deliberating, he had not become the pain in the neck of the Labour Leadership that he became. As it was he had been the election agent for then Labour MP, Willie Baxter in the February 1974 election and Canavan later assumed the Leadership of the Labour Group on the new Stirling District Council. After Baxter agreed to stand down before the October 1974 election, step forward Councillor Canavan.
Denis Canavan like sitting SF&G MP Harry Ewing could have both sought the Labour nomination for the new Stirling seat, As it is, they both sought safter seats inm Falkirk West and East
Ian the other two seats were Monklands West and Clydebank & Milngavie though as only 5 voters were involved in the latter case it is hardly worth mentioning.
Just under 3,000 voters went to Monklands West which presumably would have been that strange salient (almost a detached area) which took in part of the then Strathkelvin district and which was moved into Strathkelvin & Bearsden in 1997. I thought that would have included Lennoxtown actually but i’m not sure.
The previous Stirling was lost by Michael Forsyth 13 years ago in the Labour landslide.
I note the Boundary Changes before 2005 appear to have helped LDs here.
This is another sat where I believe 30% should be sufficient to win the seat.
I am inclined to think Labour will hold with a 3 figure majority over Cons.
The Lib Dems will get squeezed here. Looking at the Scottish polls the party seem almost certain to lose votes in Scotland (although I am only banking on them losing two seats even if they drop almost half their 2005 vote, just because so many of their seats have such large majorities).
The coming GE will be about choosing between a Labour and a Tory government. This seat will be about choosing between a Labour and a Tory MP (although doubtless the Lib Dems will attempt somehow to contrive a message that they are one of the participants in a “two horse race”; I am not sure how though), and as such I can envisage them falling away quite badly. I reckon the same thing will happen to them in other seats where they are not in first or second place.
Greens have selected Mark Ruskell for Stirling. See stirlinggreensDOTorgDOTuk for futher info.
The SNP should come close to third place here.