St Helens South and Whiston
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8209 (17.81%)
Labour: 24364 (52.87%)
Liberal Democrat: 10242 (22.23%)
BNP: 2040 (4.43%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.66%)
Majority: 14122 (30.64%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 22908 (55.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 11928 (28.9%)
Conservative: 5083 (12.3%)
Other: 1373 (3.3%)
Majority: 10980 (26.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4602 (13%)
Labour: 19345 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 10036 (28.3%)
UKIP: 847 (2.4%)
Other: 643 (1.8%)
Majority: 9309 (26.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4675 (13.8%)
Labour: 16799 (49.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7814 (23.1%)
UKIP: 336 (1%)
Other: 4180 (12.4%)
Majority: 8985 (26.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6628 (15%)
Labour: 30367 (68.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5919 (13.4%)
Referendum: 1165 (2.6%)
Other: 179 (0.4%)
Majority: 23739 (53.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Shaun Woodward(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Val Allen (Conservative)Shaun Woodward(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Brian Spencer (Liberal Democrat) John Sumner (UKIP)James Winstanley (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100548
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 23.7%
Over 60: 20.9%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 98.5%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 86.3%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 13.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36.3%
Owner-Occupied: 69%
Social Housing: 23.8% (Council: 18.5%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14.1%
Lab Hold
Maj 8600
Lab maj 8,500
Lib Dems hit this seat very hard in 2005.This time they’ve done nothing.
Labour maj 11’000
changing my prediction to a Labour maj of 5’000. The person who filled in Woodward’s nomination papers has ensured Woodward’s address on the ballot form appears as “Cotswolds” rather than is constiutency address.That should shave at least 20-30% off his majority. Wouldn’t like to be the person who made that gaffe
Come on, Yozza! Do you really think the voters of St Helens South & Whiston are really going to vote for an address rather than a party? I don’t doubt that one or two voters might notice it, some might even allow it to influence their vote. But taking 20-30 per cent off his vote? I can’t see it somehow.
It’s an interesting one, this. Up to a fortnight ago nobody would have disagreed with a prediction of a solid Labour hold, majority 7/8000.
However, three things have changed.
1) The Lib Dems, who are the strongest party in the Whiston area (just brought into the seat) are now making inroads and expect to pick up some other ward seats in the local election;
2) The Prime Minister’s gaffes are playing badly with local people – who may not turn out or may look elsewhere (expect the BNP’s best local showing)
3) Shaun Woodward is very open to comments about 2nd homes, MPs living outside their constituencies etc. – when he first came he was pictured outside a terraced house he’d just bought that was going to be his ‘home’ – and that might just bite him.
I still expect a Labour hold, but with a vastly reduced majority (not over 3000, and possibly 1500-2000), making it a ‘battle ground’ seat for the next election.
Election rules have changed this year and candidates have to put the address of their main home ie where family lives and not their constituency home. Due to him being Sec of State for N Ireland his full address cannot be published for security reasons.
@EB
You’re probably correct but St Helens can be quite insular when it comes to candidates.The most telling thing is the LDs haven’t done anything which is a bit of a surprise.
@trashypat
That makes sense and explains a lot.I’d forgotten he was NI sec.
@Mr Dee
I have a family member in Whiston.They have had several communications from Labour and one from the LDs.I’m not sure any local strength will carry over.
I am surprised at comments saying Lib Dems have done nothing. Locally we in the Town Centre Ward get regular Focus Lib Dem Newsletters. The only time we see anything from the other parties at election time.
LAB HOLD
@joanne
that won’t matter a jot in a general election.Turnout shoots up and most of the extra voters are Labour voters who shun local elections.
Labour Cllr Jim Caunce has died, aged 92. I know I’ve mentoned this on other pages, but it realy does amaze me the ages of many cllrs across Merseyside. There was also a 92-year-old in Sefton til May (who wanted to stand again and did as an Independent after being deselected), as well as several in their 80s on Liverpool, Sefton and Wirral councils.
and isn’t the very aged Ron Atkins still a Councillor in Preston too?
Barnaby – he finally stood down in May, aged 93. His daughter was MP for Staffordshire Moorlands til May too. I think there was a 90year old in Ellesmere Port too til that council was abolished.
The Labour vote has actually held not too badly here, compared to 1997.
Not well, but not too bad either.
Better than average results in 2005 and 2010 have gone some way to compensating for 2001.
The Tories improved aswell, but more against 2001 and 2005 rather than much since 1997.
The LD strength has unwound a bit.
Labour dropped a single vote between February and October 1974 in the St Helens constituency, going from 32,621 to 32,620.
That’s interesting.
Labour did manage to increase their numerical vote in some seats in October 1974 (turnout nationally fell 5.9%), usually in seats where the Liberals took more of a squeeze compared to the February election.
Quite often the Tories got a slightly increased percentage aswell – on a lower numerical vote – but not in Scotland.
The Liberals put up 100 more candidates than in Feb.
Harold Wilson in Huyton almost polled the same number of votes in both 1974 elections: 31,767 and 31,750. IIRC he made a joke about it at the count, wondering where he’d lost those 17 votes.
quite an achievement to get that vote out again in a safe seat when there had been an election a few months before.
Possibly my favourite moment of the BBC’s 2001 election show was when Shaun Woodward told Jeremy Paxman how wonderful it was that the electors of St Helens South had elected a Labour MP. Jeremy Paxman’s reaction was predictably incredulous.
I wonder if Shaun Woodward and other former Tory traitors such as Temple-Morris, Quentin Davies, Robert jackson and Alan Howarth are now starting to wonder if they made the right decision now that they find themselves in a party that is on a relentless drift to the left under Ed Miliband?
I wonder if one or two of them were thinking “what have we done” when they found themselves in a party in which Tony Blairs name received jeers and boos at Labour party Conference?
I wonder if they are having second thoughts now Ed Miliband has declared New Labour dead?
Of course, they’ll never admit it even if they do, will they.