Stevenage
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18491 (41.41%)
Labour: 14913 (33.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7432 (16.64%)
BNP: 1007 (2.26%)
UKIP: 2004 (4.49%)
English Democrat: 366 (0.82%)
Independent: 80 (0.18%)
Others: 358 (0.8%)
Majority: 3578 (8.01%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17599 (43.4%)
Conservative: 14148 (34.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7422 (18.3%)
Other: 1421 (3.5%)
Majority: 3451 (8.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14864 (35.4%)
Labour: 18003 (42.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7610 (18.1%)
UKIP: 1305 (3.1%)
Other: 152 (0.4%)
Majority: 3139 (7.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13459 (31.7%)
Labour: 22025 (51.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6027 (14.2%)
Other: 942 (2.2%)
Majority: 8566 (20.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16858 (32.8%)
Labour: 28440 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4588 (8.9%)
Referendum: 1194 (2.3%)
Other: 306 (0.6%)
Majority: 11582 (22.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen McPartland (Conservative) Director of Membership for BritishAmerican Business.
Stephen McPartland (Conservative) Director of Membership for BritishAmerican Business.
Sharon Taylor (Labour) Educated at Stevenage Girls Grammar. Leader of Stevenage council.
Julia Davies (Liberal Democrat) born 1952. Educated at Merchant Taylors School and University of London. English teacher. Contested Broxbourne 1992, 1997, 2001, Stevenage 2005.
Marion Mason (UKIP)Michael Green (BNP) Charles Vickers (English Democrat)
Stephen Phillips (No Candidate Deserves My Vote) Born 1963, London. Educated at Southampton University. Software developer.Andrew Ralph (Your Right to Democracy)David Cox (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89633
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 24.9%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 6.3%
White: 94.9%
Black: 1.1%
Asian: 1.9%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 67.9%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 16.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.4%
Owner-Occupied: 64.4%
Social Housing: 29.4% (Council: 25.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 1.9%
How can the constituency be reduced to just the town when the borough has a parliamentary electorate of only 61,000? The current seat with villages included has 69,000 so it is clear that Stevenage will have to gain additional territory. Chesfield (which includes Great Ashby) on its own could just about be enough, but there is no way this would help Labour and any other wards which could conceivably be added would all disadvantage Labour
Chesfield as I recall returned Liberal Democrats at the last North Herts elections, so, in effect, would be wasted votes.
You recall wrong. The Conservatives gained the ward from the LDs this May and Labour were in a poor third. There’s no doubt that Labour would lag far behind the Conservatives in that area in a general election
Labour to start selection process
(All Women Shortlist)
Closing date for applications 12 September 2011 (midnight)
Longlisting: 16 September 2011
Interviews and shortlisting: 1 October 2011
Informal meet and greet: 15 October 2011, evening
Selection meeting: 23 October 2011
After boundary changes the Tory majority is very likely to be somewhere between 10% and 15%. The December 2010 electorate of the current seat was 69,357.
You forget also the Dixon’s site, which will contain a significant proportion of social housing, and the likelihood that the far right are unlikely to be able to organise the way they did in 2010.
I would assume the Labour Party will select Sharon Taylor again, who at least, unlike the MP, actually lives in the constituency, and whose office is not a temporary portakabin on an industrial estate.
Who ‘forgets the Dixon’s site’? Please tell us more about this. It may or may not have electoral consequences of the kind you imply. It seems to be not relevant however to the point we were discussing, namely the effect of likely boundary changes on the electoral balance here. Having been corrected twice now (firstly on your suggestion that the boundaries may contract here when they will inevitably expand, secondly on the electoral character of one of the areas which may be added), it appears you are trying to move the goal posts and discuss other reasons why you think Labour may do well here. Those points may or may not be valid – the supposed advantage Sharon Taylor enjoys as a local was present in 2010 and will therefore not be an added advantage in 2015, especially Stephen McPartland will have the benefit of incumbency. If this Dixons site of yours is within the borough of Stevenage, then presumably any social housing built there will house people already resident in the borough and if they are Labour voters they will already have been voting Labour in this constituency in 2010. The point here is not that Labour cannot win this seat but that the task will inevitably be made harder. Any separate factors you mention may benefit Labour as may national swing. But while a swing here of just over 4% would be enough to gain this seat on current boundaries, it won’t be enough on the new boundaries and it will require one of maybe 5 or 6 or 7%, which is obviously a taller order
.. and indeed the initial boundary proposals for Stevenage add on Walkern from East Herts and Chesfield from North Herts. This would add about 2,000 to the 2010 Conservative majority bringing it up to about 11% in percentage terms. Chesfield is a logical addition as it mostly consists of suburban new build housing on the edge of Stevenage. Walkern is far more rural, but it was in Hertford & Stevenage from 1974-83 and in Stevenage from 1983 to 2010
The boundary changes haven’t had quite the effect I expected. The projected Tory majority is only 9.5% instead of 8.0%:
Con: 20,237
Lab: 15,597
LD: 9,094
UKIP: 2,194
While my Labour and LD figures agree with that, I have about 1,000 extra Conservative votes.
Anthony’s figures add only 1,746 to the Conservative vote which given the areas added had about 7,000 voters in 2010 with a likley turnout of over 70% computes to about 34% of the vote. I don’t think its very likely
My own notional results for this seat:
Con 21191 42.5%
Lab 15583 31.3%
LD 8972 18.0%
UKIP 2176 4.4%
BNP 1007 2.0%
Oth 922 1.8%
Sharon Taylor, who was the Labour candidate here in 2010, has been reselected for 2015.
I suppose the recent local election results throw a new light on the possibilities for this seat. Most interesting is the complete collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote in the town to less than 8% from 18%. Similarly, the BNP’s local organiser has retired, and therefore there were no ultraright candidates outside one, IIRC.
Chesfield Ward in Great Ashby also returned to the Liberal Democrats (again).
The issue is/will be where these votes go. The Libs were beaten in almost all wards where the UKIP stood. Do we presume that the protest vote goes to them ?
Lib Dem Cllr John Mead has defected to Labour here.
Stevenage 2015 most likely
Con 41
Lab 40
LD 10
Others 9
swing = 3.5% Con to Lab
Con Hold
Don’t agree with that. If this seat swings at all it will be quite notable – that’s why it changes hands so regularly
I think I agree with Merseymike.
Either the Conservatives will hold it
with their majority slightly up
or slightly down,
or it will go to Labour on a sizeable swing.
I don’t really follow that logic. This seat does tend to exagerrate the national swing when there is one, like all new towns, but if we work on the reasonable assumption that the Conservatives retain a roughly similar share of the national vote in 2015 as in 2010 (which is franklyas good a guess as any at this stage of the parliement) then I don’t see why they shouldn;t retain a roughly similar share here, with Labour going up a bit at the expense of the LDs
I think it will be about 40 each. Dont see any logic of saying it will swing loads or none at all.