Stafford
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22047 (43.88%)
Labour: 16587 (33.02%)
Liberal Democrat: 8211 (16.34%)
BNP: 1103 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1727 (3.44%)
Green: 564 (1.12%)
Majority: 5460 (10.86%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20062 (43.2%)
Conservative: 18262 (39.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6548 (14.1%)
Other: 1536 (3.3%)
Majority: 1800 (3.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17768 (39%)
Labour: 19889 (43.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6390 (14%)
UKIP: 1507 (3.3%)
Majority: 2121 (4.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16253 (36.6%)
Labour: 21285 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 4205 (9.5%)
UKIP: 2315 (5.2%)
Other: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 5032 (11.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20292 (39.2%)
Labour: 24606 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5480 (10.6%)
Referendum: 1146 (2.2%)
Other: 248 (0.5%)
Majority: 4314 (8.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jeremy Lefroy (Conservative) Chartered accountant and former director of Tanzanian Coffee Board. Newcastle-under-Lyme councillor 2003-2007. Contested West Midlands region in 2003 European elections. Contested Newcastle-under-Lyme 2005.
Jeremy Lefroy (Conservative) Chartered accountant and former director of Tanzanian Coffee Board. Newcastle-under-Lyme councillor 2003-2007. Contested West Midlands region in 2003 European elections. Contested Newcastle-under-Lyme 2005.David Kidney(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Barry Stamp (Liberal Democrat)Mike Shone (Green)Roy Goode (UKIP) Roland Hynd (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88339
Male: 49.8%
Female: 50.2%
Under 18: 21.1%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 96.9%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 78.9%
Full time students: 4.8%
Graduates 16-74: 20.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.2%
Owner-Occupied: 74.7%
Social Housing: 15.3% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 6.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
Ah yes, you’re right. that’s Stafford*shire*, not Stafford.
Oops.
Which seats have included Penkridge?
Staffordshire West 1885-1918
Stafford 1918-1950
Cannock 1950-1974
Staffordshire South West 1974-1983
Staffordshire South 1983-97
Stafford 1997-
I think I’m correct in saying that there was no boundary change in 1983 when SW Staffs changed its name to S Staffs. There have clearly been since though (obviously since Penkridge left the constituency).
Penkridge is quite an interesting little town; it clearly does vote Conservative but it seems to have had an unusually large UKIP vote in the early noughties (well, unusual for the time anyway). UKIP has stood large, sometimes even complete, slates of local candidates in this area & it seems that the UKIP vote in the 2001 general election was large enough to make the Tory lead over Labour in the town distinctly narrow. This of course went much of the way towards preventing the Tories gaining the Stafford seat in the general election, Labour accruing enough of a majority in Stafford itself, and perhaps one or 2 other more Labour-leaning villages, to hold the seat with a degree of comfort.
Thanks as ever Pete
Barnaby says: ‘I think I’m correct in saying that there was no boundary change in 1983 when SW Staffs changed its name to S Staffs’ Wikipedia says of S Staffs
‘The present South Staffordshire constituency was established in 1983, although in reality this was merely a renaming of the Staffordshire South West constituency formed in 1974 from parts of the former constituencies of Brierley Hill and Cannock. It covered the whole of the South Staffordshire district until 1997, when the area around Penkridge was included in the Stafford constituency.’
I would have liked to believe the outgoing government got an extra good kicking in this constituency given their record on Staffordshire Hospital
but the swing, although higher than average, doesn’t look particularly unusual.
It was filthy
The swing was larger in Cannock Chase certainly
“Which seats have included Penkridge?”
“Staffordshire West 1885-1918
Stafford 1918-1950
Cannock 1950-1974
Staffordshire South West 1974-1983
Staffordshire South 1983-97
Stafford 1997-”
So was the whole of the Cannock RD in the Stafford seat from 1918-1950? I’m only asking this because I have friends who live in Great Wyrley which I always thought was in the Cannock constituency from 1918 through to 1974.
No you are correct that that area was in Cannock in that period. The Cannock rural district was divided before 1950 with the rural north around Penkridge in Stafford and the more urban south around Cheslyn Hay, Great Wyrley, Essington (and then also including Bushbury) in Cannock. The whole area was brought into the Cannok seat in 1950 (and then removed in 1974)
Thanks Pete for clearing that one up. Was the Wednesfield UD part of Cannock back then, cus I don’t think it got added to Wolverhampton North East until 1974?
And did the Cannock seat contain Rugeley back then before it was part of Mid-Staffs?
Also, is Staffordshire a council that Labour are hoping to take control of next year? Or does the scale of their defeat in 2009 mean that it would be unrealistic for them to hope to retake it in one go?
Wednesfield was part of Cannock from 1950 to 1974 – prior to that it was in Wolverhampton East.
Rugeley was added to Cannock in 1974 having been in Lichfield & Tamworth/Lichfield since 1885.
On yours econd point, I don;t know what Labour is hoping for, but regardless of the scale of their defeat last time it should certainly be possible for them to take control next year if they running well in the national polls. They should be able to take most of the LD and UKIP seats in addition to numerous Conservative held seats. I can see them quite easily approaching 30 seats – getting up to the 32 needed for outright control would requite some fairly difficult gains, but its certainly doable
Interesting.
As Stoke is no longer part of Staffordshire county council, I’m struggling to understand how Labour could have enough of a base to control the council.
They are strong in Burton town, Newcastle, Rugeley, and presumably bits of Tamworth and Cannock…..but is that enough for them to be able to outweigh the Tory strength in the rural areas and the many market towns?
Well don;t forget that Labour did have a majority before the last set of elections (albeit a very small one from 2005 on). In 2005 they won a majority with them and the Conservatives neck and neck in the popular vote. It is possible but they would need to win some of those market towns like Stone and Uttoxeter
After all in the 2005 general election Labour did win 6 of the parliamentary seats in the Staffs county council area & the Tories only 3. Even in these 3 seats some divisions are winnable for Labour, such as Stone in its eponymous constituency, Great Wyrley in South Staffs & parts of Burntwood in Lichfield constituency. Labour appear to be doing better than in 2005 though it’s possible that might be truer in some parts of the country than others. The county is certainly on Labour’s target list along with Notts, Derbyshire & Lancs and with the LDs much weaker than they were up to 2010 an outright Labour win is certainly possible, though clearly as Pete says nothing like in the bag.
Yes.
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire I know very well, having grown up there. Both have large geographical bases for a core Labour vote and so it’s easy to see how Labour can win those counties.
As you say, in Staffordshire the key is probably in the small market towns. Leek is one you didn’t mention but I imagine Labour could win.
My dad was born in Stone, however I’ve never been there (the family moved when he was 3).
Leek is tricky for Labour because of the way the boundaries are drawn there. Their best ward in the town is in the Leek Rural division where its swamped by rural Tory wards, leaving the Leek South division (containing the other three wards of the town) hard for them to win (it was won by UKIP in 2009 with Labour 4th but regained by the Conservatives in a by-election recently)
‘After all in the 2005 general election Labour did win 6 of the parliamentary seats in the Staffs county council area & the Tories only 3′
Like Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire has plenty of WWC voters, and whilst its equally industrial in parts it doesn’t have such a strong mining tradition as the other two counties, which might explain why the Tory fortunes have picked up better here
In fact I’d suspect that aside from Hertfordshire and Essex it was the only other county where the Tories outdid their 1992 result
Some of their results here were very positive to say the least – such as the idiotic Aidan Burley winning in Cannock, and the Tories cutting down Labour’s majority in Newcastle under Lyne to make it marginal
The thing is though Tim, 8 out of 9 constituencies in Staffordshire are already held by the Tories, and the 9th (Newcastle) is now highly winnable for them. We could easily imagine every Staffordshire constituency having a Tory MP.
The Tories are nowhere near as consistently strong across either Derbyshire or Nottinghamshire. In both of those counties, there is a large block of safe Labour seats that the Tories will never ever win. In Derbyshire this is the north-east area containing Bolsover, Chesterfield and NE Derbyshire. In Nottinghamshire it is the north-west, running from Ashfield through Mansfield and into Bassetlaw. Gedling is now probably unwinnable for the Tories as well.
So in both Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, Labour has a very solid base of safe districts already, that is not so in Staffordshire which makes their ability to win the county much harder.
‘The thing is though Tim, 8 out of 9 constituencies in Staffordshire are already held by the Tories, and the 9th (Newcastle) is now highly winnable for them.’
I think you need to include Stoke in Staffs – and its three seats have elected Labour MPs since the second world war
As we were discussing on the Lichfield thread – Staffs is an unlikely Tory stronghold
Notwithstanding the Staffs Moorlands area, pretty it ain’t – and its one of those counties which along with Bedfordshire always comes last in those ‘best counties to live in’ surveys – and for good reason too
With its plenty of hurriedly-built industrial towns, it lacks the rural beauty of neighbouring Shropshire, but its precisely these types of not particularly attractive places which are swinging towards the Tories
‘We could easily imagine every Staffordshire constituency having a Tory MP.’
I’d be very surprised if they held the Cannock seat – with or without the Nazi-celebrating cretin that represents them at the moment – and I think places like Burton, Stafford and Tamworth would remain marginal – at least for the next 10-20 years
“I think you need to include Stoke in Staffs”
I think you don’t in this case because we are discussing Staffordshire county council and Stoke returns no members to that body.
I do think HH’s analysis is overly simplistic though. You can’t really discern much from the number of MPs a party holds. Many of the Staffordshire seats are marginal and contain marginal seats within them. In Tamworth for example the Conservatives hold all six seats but all were gained from Labour and it would not take too much for at least five of them to go back to Labour. The problem the Conservatives have had is that they are able to win some huge majorities in some of the rural divisions of districts like Lichfield and East Staffs but to lose in the towns – hence they won the popular vote in the county in 2005 but Labour managed to scrape a majority. There are many marginal urban seats in Stafford, Cannock, Newcastle and indeed in the smaller towns we discussed. Stafford distirct itself is a case in point. The Conservatives outpolled Labour in 2005 in the district due to big leads in the four rural divisions. But Labour won the most seats (5 of 9) by taking the urban seats in Stafford and Stone, in some case by quite small margins. On the other hand Labour are capable of winning almost all the seats in Cannock Chase and Newcastle and, as mentioned, Tamworth
“I think you need to include Stoke in Staffs – and its three seats have elected Labour MPs since the second world war”
Pete has explained why you are wrong on that. I am being consistent as I also did not include Derby in Derbyshire nor Nottingham in Nottinghamshire. It is the removal of these Labour-dominated urban areas from the county councils that has made it possible for the Tories to control them in a good year.
I have made my views on Aiden Burley very clear, but I would not be so confident as Tim that he will lose his seat. On current polling he clearly would, but if the Tories and Labour poll a relatively equal number nationally in the 35-38% range, which would be my “most likely” forecast, I think he has a good chance of holding on. I don’t think his antics will affect him much with the voters in a seat like Cannock….the much more significant impact has been to probably permanently resign him to the backbenches.
Looking at the most recent sets of local elections in Staffordshire (2012 in Cannock, Newcastle and Tamworth, 2011 for the rest) It does look like things will be quite tight in Staffordshire next year, assuming voting patterns are on similar lines. Aggregating the votes to CC divisions I find that the Conservatives were ahead in 37 seats, Labour in 23 and Independent in 2. Obviously this is a fairly clear Conservative lead, but they were only very narrowly ahead in a number of seats so it would take only a small swing compared with 2011/12 for Labour to pick up a number of additional seats.
On this basis, Labour would win 6 of 7 seats in Cannock Chase, 5 of 6 in Tamworth and 6 of 9 in Newcastle and of the total 22 seats in those three boroughs all are winnable with the exception of Newcastle rural. There are then three seats in Stafford town which should be fairly straightforward gains (Labour held up rather better here than in the rest of the county in 2009) and there are a further three in East Staffordshire which had the Conservatives very narrowly ahead in 2011which in addition to the two seats they already hold in Burton would take them to 29. Biddulph North and the two Burntwood seats would take them over the winning post, but here the pictur is complicated by Independents – Burntwood South was won by an Independent in 2009 with Labour a poor third, and one would expect them not to be so subject to the national swing as a Conservative would be. Biddulph North on the other hand saw Labour in a decent second place in 2009 but in the 2011 locals they hardly feature in that area which is domniated by Independents. If Independents stand there it could thwart Labour. Clearly their path to victory is not an easy one. They don’t look to be in a good position in Stone or Lichfield North or Stafford SE which are the kind of seats they relied on for their narrow majority in 2005. On the other hand it is just about conceivable they could win one or even both seats in Cheslyn Hay, Essington & Great Wyrley.
It does look very likley that both LDs and UKIP will be wiped off the council and the overall balance is likely to be quite tight – ranging from a small Tory majority, through a hung council with a couple of Independents holding the balance to (I would have to say an outside chance) of a very small Labour majority
Pete, thanks very much for this excellent detailed analysis which again gives us a very good insight into the divisions which matter in Staffordshire. No doubt we regard each other politically as scoundrels, but this information is most helpful to anyone interested in the county council elections next year.
The biggest problem for Labour is that towns like Stone and Burntwood that voted Labour in County Council elections 20 years ago are now swinging demographically towards the Tories. This is especially true in Burntwood. Lots of new private housing in a seat which has changed from being a mining village to a Birmingham commuter town in just 2-3 decades. The collapse in the Labour vote here is evident in Labour finishing 3rd in the Lichfield seat at the 2010 general election.
As someone who lives just over the border in Walsall, but who spends a lot of time in Staffs for work and leisure, I’m generally happy with the way the tories have run the council. Staffordshire puts Walsall to shame for road maintenance and council tax has been kept under control. And I’ve yet to hear a bad word about them from the Labour voting Staffordshire residents that are my parents. That’s always a plus point for any Tory.
Thanks for your analysis Pete. Whilst I have little respect for UKIP politically, some of the information you provide is very useful.
I always thought Great Wyrley, Cheslyn Hay and Essington was a safe tory division in a safe tory district. I know that Great Wyrley and Cheslyn Hay elected Labour councilors at district level in the 1990′s, but I thought they were safe tory now.
And anyway, didn’t UKIP finish second in all the South Staffs seats in 2009? I’d be very surprised if Labour take both those seats.
I don’t think its likely to be all that useful to use 2009 as a baseline against which to judge likely performance in 2013, because it was such an abnormally abysmal year for Labour – almost on a par with 1968 or 1977. It also is probably not a particulary good indicator of likely UKIP performance, because the CC elections coincided with the European elections in 2009 which inevitably boosted UKIP’s vote in a way which will not happen in 2013 (albeit Staffordshire generally and South Staffordshire particularly is a good UKIP area).
Great Wyrley, Cheslyn Hay and Essington is certainly not a typically safe Conservative division in South Staffs. You should know the area better than me, but it is in many ways more similar to neighbouring Cannock than to the middle class commuting areas like Codsall, Perton and Womborne – at the very least it is socially mid way between the two. In 2005 Labour were very close to winning the inaugaral contest in this division and had held both the predecessor divisions. This suggests that in an even year the Conservatives would only narrowly be ahead of Labour and if Labour are maintaining leads of 10% or more nationally they should certainly be able to outpoll the Tories there. Labour did actually get a councillor elected in 2011 in Cheslyn Hay North and were also very close in South. They also outpollled the Conservatives in Featherstone (as you would expect given the demographics there). Great wyrley was somewhat more solid for the Conservatives. I would not say Labour are favourites in that division, but it would certainly not be all that surprising if they were to win there. It is I think (as I explained in some detail above) probably a necessary prerequisite for them winning a majority given that they look less able to win in places like Lichfield North and Stone these days – perhaps an illustration of how difficult the task is for them. Difficult, but not impossible
I do know the area reasonably well Pete, my parents live in Great Wyrley. I’ve always got the impression that most people who live in those villages either are or are descended from people who moved their from the industrial West Midlands when new housing arrived in the area in the 60′s and 70′s. I know some of the housing in Landywood and parts of Chezzo (as the locals call it) is a bit tacky, but I thought they’d still be occupied by mainly tory voting suburban dwellers.
I am surprised to learn that Labour are competitive here in an area I assumed made the transition from Staffordshire mining villages to West Midlands commuter town 30-40 years ago.
And the fact that Labour came close to winning Cheslyn Hay South at district level does surprise me. Some of the houses on the Mary Rose estate go for £500k+.
Staffordshire seems to be trending rightwards.
Perhaps because of ‘white flight’ from Birmingham and the Black Country together with the fading of the Labour tradition in the old mining areas.
Stafford 2015 most likely
Con 43.1 (-0.8)
Lab 39.3 (+6.3)
LD 8.9 (-7.6)
UKIP 5.6 (+2.2)
Others 3.1
Swing = 3.6% Con to Lab
Conservative Hold
Turnout 70.5%
It appears that Staffordshire is indeed moving towards the right.
The narrow Tory victory at the Police & Crime Commissioner election, which included Labour Stoke-on-Trent in the electoral area, would seem to confirm this.
The most likely outcome I think at the 2013 county council election is a hung council with the Tories emerging the largest party by some way.