Comments on: Southport

By: Lancs Observer

Lancs Observer — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 17:22:19 +0000

Former MP Matthew Banks has been arrested for fraud again.

By: Tory

Tory — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 20:01:52 +0000

That’s a very fair point- it’s early days. I was suggesting that the strong Labour performance in Southport this year might be evidence of a possible unwind in the seat. Only time will tell of course.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 19:55:34 +0000

Is there that much evidence of LD -> L tactical unwind? From a lot of the results I saw the Lib Dems held up pretty well in seats they held, while collapsing elsewhere.

I think the Tories will struggle to regain the “natural Tory” seats they’ve lost to the Lib Dems since 1992, even if the LD vote is substantially down nationally

By: Tory

Tory — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 18:17:37 +0000

I think the Conservatives have a good chance in 2015. The boundary changes cut the Lib Dem majority almost in half. Furthermore, one would expect LD>L tactical unwind (the 2011 local elections provide some evidence of this happening already). It would help the Lib Dems if Pugh stayed on of course.

By: RodCrosby

RodCrosby — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:05:54 +0000

Well they clearly have a better chance than they did, as the figures show.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:23:07 +0000

Rod

As a local, what do you think are the Tories’ chances of winning Southport on these boundaries?

Surely they have a good chance if Lib Dem support nationally is 5-6% down from 2010?

By: RodCrosby

RodCrosby — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:19:55 +0000

Southport 2010 notionals on new boundaries

LD 22,725 (44.3%)
Con 19,489 (38.0%)
Lab 6,237 (12.2%)
Oth 2,831 (5.5%)

LD majority 3,236 (6.3%)

By: wolf

wolf — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 20:16:01 +0000

Saw John Pugh on BBC Parliament talking about the NHS. He made a lot of sense especially when he talked about the weird purchasing policies of the NHS. He seems far too sensible to ever become a Minister.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 10:45:41 +0000

Labour’s best chance of a win next year is in Norwood followed by Kew. It will be interesting to see what happens.

By: David

David — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 10:29:59 +0000

Just building on the above discussion, here are the 2011 figures with change on 2010
LD 31.0% (-19.2%)
Con 30.4% (-2.0%)
Lab 19.9% (+11.6%)
Oth 18.6% (+9.6%)

That Labour increase is slightly exaggerated as they didnt put up a candidate in Norwood in 2010, but did in 2011 (which looked unusually given how close there were to winning this time).

How right would it be to say that Southport has any long term potential as a Labour win (albeit the boundaries could be changed significantly?). Is like many of the other seaside resorts that demographically shifted to Labour, but long-term entrenched tactically voting inhibited their strength, or is the seat much more affluent or of a different character (I guess like Eastbourne?) to make that unlikely?

Will be interesting to see if the 2012 local elections show Labour’s show increase further from 20%, and whether they start to win any wards.