Southport
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15683 (35.84%)
Labour: 4116 (9.41%)
Liberal Democrat: 21707 (49.61%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.14%)
Majority: 6024 (13.77%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19093 (46.3%)
Conservative: 15255 (37%)
Labour: 5277 (12.8%)
Other: 1576 (3.8%)
Majority: 3838 (9.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15255 (37%)
Labour: 5277 (12.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19093 (46.3%)
UKIP: 749 (1.8%)
Other: 827 (2%)
Majority: 3838 (9.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15004 (36.5%)
Labour: 6816 (16.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 18011 (43.8%)
UKIP: 555 (1.3%)
Other: 767 (1.9%)
Majority: 3007 (7.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18186 (35.9%)
Labour: 6125 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 24346 (48.1%)
Referendum: 1368 (2.7%)
Other: 571 (1.1%)
Majority: 6160 (12.2%)
No Boundary changes:
Profile: The northern part of Sefton borough council, following the coast up west of South Ribble. Southport is an up-market seaside tourist town, with the second longest pier in Britain and six golf courses. Less brash and more genteel than nearby Blackpool, it has also become a commuter town for Liverpool and Preston.
A Conservative seat for most of the time since the First World War, it was finally won by the Liberals in 1987 (Ronnie Fearn having previously contested the seat four times) and has since been a marginal Lib Dem/Conservative contest, returning to the Tories in 1992 but being won back by Fearn in 1997.
Current MP: John Pugh(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Liverpool. Educated at Prescott Grammar School, Maidstone Grammar School and the Univerisity of Durham. Former RE and philosophy teacher. Sefton borough councillor from 1987-2001. Former leader of Sefton council. First elected as MP for Southport in 2001. Liberal Democrat education spokesman 2002-5, transport spokesman 2005-6, health spokesman 2006-2007, treasury spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Brenda Porter (Conservative) born Liverpool. Formerly worked in management in the charitable sector. Sefton borough councillor.
Jim Conalty (Labour) John Pugh(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Liverpool. Educated at Prescott Grammar School, Maidstone Grammar School and the Univerisity of Durham. Former RE and philosophy teacher. Sefton borough councillor from 1987-2001. Former leader of Sefton council. First elected as MP for Southport in 2001. Liberal Democrat education spokesman 2002-5, transport spokesman 2005-6, health spokesman 2006-2007, treasury spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)Terry Durrance (UKIP) Contested Southport 2005.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90336
Male: 46.6%
Female: 53.4%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 27.6%
Born outside UK: 4%
White: 98%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 80.9%
Jewish: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 19.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.4%
Owner-Occupied: 78.6%
Social Housing: 7.6% (Council: 3.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 11.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11%
I agree with Sir Norfolk Passmore that we need more politicians with real experience outside politics.
However, without going through the figures, my impression is that in recent years a considerable number of backbench MPs have retired after ten years – a few even after five years, particularly on the Labour side.
A consequence of the turnover of MPs is that MPs expect to become ministers very quickly – perhaps to become a junior minister towards the end of their first parliament and then to get more senior office in the next one. We even see major party leaders with only about five years experience.
In the twentieth century, it used to be reckoned that MPs in general needed ten years parliamentary experience before they had sufficient political grounding to take a leading position. And this actually agrees with psychologists who reckon that it needs ten years to learn many skills really effectively.
In the past, a typical career path for a politician might have been to enter the Commons in his or her late 30s or early forties, to hold senior office in his or her fifties and perhaps sixties (depending of course on when his or her party was in poser – but in those days there was reasonably frequent alternation), and then, health permitting, to stay on as a statesman, or senior backbencher, until their seventies. This combined previous experience outside politics with political longevity (for MPs in safe seats), and had a lot to be said for it. Of course, individual cases varied from this theoretical model. There was also the problem of MPs from marginal seats who passed like ships in the night – but in those days a few by-elections were always generated after a General Election to get some younger defeated candidates back in safe seats. Patrick Gordon-Walker’s defeat in Leyton was one reason why this practice has lapsed, along with the “death effect” in the late 1970s, when Labour appeared to retain by-election seats where the MP had died, but repeatedly lost very safe seats when an MP resigned.
The feeling that if you don’t succeed first time you will never get another chance, which is perhaps motivating John Pugh, is sadly all too prevalent across the employment market today. As appointments and promotions are largely a matter of chance, partlcularly when there are so many applicants per job, this represents a huge waste of the nation’s human capital. In politics, it represents MPs being reluctant to push views and causes which take time to get accepted. Perseverance is an important attribute for politicians in a health democracy.
It’s obviously swings and roundabouts over the centuries then Frederic. i thought William Pitt the Younger was only 22 when he became Prime Minister.
(I assume lax H &S laws in those days didn’t allow you to become an MP at 12 years old anyway.)
‘i thought William Pitt the Younger was only 22 when he became Prime Minister. ‘
Good point – and he was the first Prime Minister worthy of the name
I.ve just looked up Wikipedia which says Pitt the Younger was 24 when he became Prime Minister, which agrees with my recollections. Apparently he became MP for Appleby aged 21, having previously stood unsucessfuly for Cambridge University.
The role of ministers was not in my view closely comparable in the eighteenth centtury to that today, not least because the civil service machine did not really get going until the nineteenth century, with all the managerial skills and experience that controlling such a juggernaut entails. Arguably the key skill most contemporary politicians lack is experience of leadership in the sense of managing subordinates – and of course this contrasts in particular with most of the twentieth century, when many MPs on both sides of the house had been officers in the armed forces.
Yes.
Also on the Tory side there were a lot more “captains of industry” like Heseltine, Davies, Prior and Walker who knew how real businesses worked, not just merchant banks and lobby firms.
Labour used to be the people’s party, and many of their MPs came from the same ordinary jobs as their working class core voters – miners, steelworkers, dockers, railways etc. Today there are very few MPs left who have had experience of a manual working class profession.
We could add that a fair few Labour MPs (and Norman Tebbit) had been union officials or shop stewards, which also provided people with tough people skills, whatever you think of their aims,
Agreed. Unions, at least from heavy industries, also insitilled the importance of solidarity and complete loyalty to your neighbours, colleagues, class and party.
Today sadly lacking. Politicians opportunistically fiddling and defecting all over the place, to further their own careers.
Read “The Enemy Within”, Seamus Milne’s book on the Miners’ Strike.
Kevin Barron, Kim Howells and Michael Clapham were all officials in the NUM and constantly at borderline violent loggerheads with Scargill and his entourage during and after the strike. That took real “tough people skills”.
“Today sadly lacking. Politicians opportunistically fiddling and defecting all over the place, to further their own careers.”
In fact, if loyalty to party is one of the criteria, Hemmelig, then I would argue that there is more of that today than in the past. When was the last MP or MEP defection???
There have been some expulsions from a party, but relatively few actual defections. Of course, I’m not talking about local councillors because there are so many of them that statistically defections are far more numerous.
But I think the last MP defection was the nasty, treacherous Quentin Davies back in 2007.
And wasn’t the last MEP defection back in 2006 or something?
Everything has remained surprisingly stable given how unstable our politics has been over the last few years.
Yes, you are right.
There have been rather more opportunistic defections in order to get into a safe seat though – see Louise Bagshawe, Helen Grant and that cretin who won Gillingham and Rainham (can’t remember his name).
It will work the other way when Labour next look like winning.
The last MEP defection is a bit more recent. Didn’t McMillan-Scott defect to the Lib Dems shortly after the 2009 Euros?
‘The last MEP defection is a bit more recent. Didn’t McMillan-Scott defect to the Lib Dems shortly after the 2009 Euros?’
He was expelled and then switched.
John Pugh is nearly 64 and he will be retirement age at the next election. He was a schoolteacher before his election.
As for the Tories, there are two clear factions. The councillor who has decamped to UKIP is actually in Sefton Central ( a safe Tory seat in Formby ) but was associated with the currently-losing faction.
They seem to hate each other. Also, although they are supposedly co-operating, the Libs and Cons loathe each other in Southport. Labour have basically said that unless they get a reasonable deal for their areas (which are by far the most deprived) they will withdraw from the all-party cabinet and leave it to them to make the cuts. That could prove very interesting.
In a belated response to Richard I was just saying I thought the LDs will hold up better here due to the middle class/older demographic.
Just spotted that another Tory has defected to UKIP here. John Lyon-Taylor who had been announced as the Tory candidate for Norwood ward is standing for UKIP in Dukes ward against the Tory who was appointed while the 2 ward cllrs were suspended.
Only just spotted the huge Labour vot across Southport on Thursday:
LD 8494 31.0%
Con 8320 30.4%
Lab 5456 19.9%
UKIP 2439 8.9%
SoP 2373 8.7%
Grn 167 0.6%
BNP 123 0.4%
The LibDems even lost a ward to the Tories after a recount (Cambridge by 16 votes), as their vote went to Labour.
Labour also gained wards from the Tories and LibDems in the rest of Sefton (Maghull, Crosby), but the Labour surge in Southport surprised me!
Indeed. I think that the Kew ward may even be won by Labour next year and Ainsdale is also winnable though the figures may not suggest it
I’d have thought Norwood would be the most winnable ward for Labour in Southport. I take it you meant to say Birkdale rather than Ainsdale Merseymike?
Interesting figures – thanks.
The Conservative vote does seem to be stuck here though, and hence is unlikely to be gained by them, unless the LDs really do have a terrible night (12% or so, so below 1979) with the Labour vote just handing the Tories seats.
I rather suspect this seat will be altered quite heavily though.
Kew appears to be the most likely. There has been a longstanding tactical voting here so it’s not always easy to see how things would pan out if that declined. Ainsdale has some big housing estates where people have voted LD tactically or just not bothered.
Just building on the above discussion, here are the 2011 figures with change on 2010
LD 31.0% (-19.2%)
Con 30.4% (-2.0%)
Lab 19.9% (+11.6%)
Oth 18.6% (+9.6%)
That Labour increase is slightly exaggerated as they didnt put up a candidate in Norwood in 2010, but did in 2011 (which looked unusually given how close there were to winning this time).
How right would it be to say that Southport has any long term potential as a Labour win (albeit the boundaries could be changed significantly?). Is like many of the other seaside resorts that demographically shifted to Labour, but long-term entrenched tactically voting inhibited their strength, or is the seat much more affluent or of a different character (I guess like Eastbourne?) to make that unlikely?
Will be interesting to see if the 2012 local elections show Labour’s show increase further from 20%, and whether they start to win any wards.
Labour’s best chance of a win next year is in Norwood followed by Kew. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Saw John Pugh on BBC Parliament talking about the NHS. He made a lot of sense especially when he talked about the weird purchasing policies of the NHS. He seems far too sensible to ever become a Minister.
Southport 2010 notionals on new boundaries
LD 22,725 (44.3%)
Con 19,489 (38.0%)
Lab 6,237 (12.2%)
Oth 2,831 (5.5%)
LD majority 3,236 (6.3%)
Rod
As a local, what do you think are the Tories’ chances of winning Southport on these boundaries?
Surely they have a good chance if Lib Dem support nationally is 5-6% down from 2010?
Well they clearly have a better chance than they did, as the figures show.
I think the Conservatives have a good chance in 2015. The boundary changes cut the Lib Dem majority almost in half. Furthermore, one would expect LD>L tactical unwind (the 2011 local elections provide some evidence of this happening already). It would help the Lib Dems if Pugh stayed on of course.
Is there that much evidence of LD -> L tactical unwind? From a lot of the results I saw the Lib Dems held up pretty well in seats they held, while collapsing elsewhere.
I think the Tories will struggle to regain the “natural Tory” seats they’ve lost to the Lib Dems since 1992, even if the LD vote is substantially down nationally
That’s a very fair point- it’s early days. I was suggesting that the strong Labour performance in Southport this year might be evidence of a possible unwind in the seat. Only time will tell of course.
Former MP Matthew Banks has been arrested for fraud again.