Southport
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15683 (35.84%)
Labour: 4116 (9.41%)
Liberal Democrat: 21707 (49.61%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.14%)
Majority: 6024 (13.77%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19093 (46.3%)
Conservative: 15255 (37%)
Labour: 5277 (12.8%)
Other: 1576 (3.8%)
Majority: 3838 (9.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15255 (37%)
Labour: 5277 (12.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19093 (46.3%)
UKIP: 749 (1.8%)
Other: 827 (2%)
Majority: 3838 (9.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15004 (36.5%)
Labour: 6816 (16.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 18011 (43.8%)
UKIP: 555 (1.3%)
Other: 767 (1.9%)
Majority: 3007 (7.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18186 (35.9%)
Labour: 6125 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 24346 (48.1%)
Referendum: 1368 (2.7%)
Other: 571 (1.1%)
Majority: 6160 (12.2%)
No Boundary changes:
Profile: The northern part of Sefton borough council, following the coast up west of South Ribble. Southport is an up-market seaside tourist town, with the second longest pier in Britain and six golf courses. Less brash and more genteel than nearby Blackpool, it has also become a commuter town for Liverpool and Preston.
A Conservative seat for most of the time since the First World War, it was finally won by the Liberals in 1987 (Ronnie Fearn having previously contested the seat four times) and has since been a marginal Lib Dem/Conservative contest, returning to the Tories in 1992 but being won back by Fearn in 1997.
Current MP: John Pugh(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Liverpool. Educated at Prescott Grammar School, Maidstone Grammar School and the Univerisity of Durham. Former RE and philosophy teacher. Sefton borough councillor from 1987-2001. Former leader of Sefton council. First elected as MP for Southport in 2001. Liberal Democrat education spokesman 2002-5, transport spokesman 2005-6, health spokesman 2006-2007, treasury spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Brenda Porter (Conservative) born Liverpool. Formerly worked in management in the charitable sector. Sefton borough councillor.
Jim Conalty (Labour) John Pugh(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Liverpool. Educated at Prescott Grammar School, Maidstone Grammar School and the Univerisity of Durham. Former RE and philosophy teacher. Sefton borough councillor from 1987-2001. Former leader of Sefton council. First elected as MP for Southport in 2001. Liberal Democrat education spokesman 2002-5, transport spokesman 2005-6, health spokesman 2006-2007, treasury spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)Terry Durrance (UKIP) Contested Southport 2005.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90336
Male: 46.6%
Female: 53.4%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 27.6%
Born outside UK: 4%
White: 98%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 80.9%
Jewish: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 19.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.4%
Owner-Occupied: 78.6%
Social Housing: 7.6% (Council: 3.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.7%)
Privately Rented: 11.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11%
‘Not sure where the 1 shock lib dem gain from con would be. Perhaps castle point or??’
More likely to be a random seat in Devon or somewhere but I’m stabbing in the dark here.
It may seem like wishful thinking but I think there could be a chance that the Lib Dems could do relatively well in North West England- I.e. they may well end up fairly comfortably retaining half of their seats in this region- Southport, Hazel Grove and Westmorland and Lonsdale.
If they retain this one it will be because of the collapse and disintegration of the local Tories. Labour aren’t going to win this one but their vote has gone up considerably in the last 2 council elections and it is quite possible that Labour will take 2 wards here at the next council elections where LD’s without a strong personal vote or new candidates will be standing
”If they retain this one it will be because of the collapse and disintegration of the local Tories. Labour aren’t going to win this one but their vote has gone up considerably in the last 2 council elections and it is quite possible that Labour will take 2 wards here at the next council elections where LD’s without a strong personal vote or new candidates will be standing”
Yes Mike I agree with all of that. I did previously make the point upthread that Labour have opportunities to win in Kew and Norwood in 2014. And yes the Tories locally are weakening, not least because of the known infighting that has gone on locally over the past decade and more. The Lib Dems made gains from the Tories here in May in Dukes and Cambridge, and so have made themselves even more popular in Southport than they were already. But if Labour are expecting to do well in 2014, they’ll be looking to poll somewhere near 6,000 votes because their vote in 2012 was actually down on 2011- Although I suppose comparisons with the year previous are probably irrelevant- The comparison with 2008 probably shows an increase, so I would imagine that 2014′s results will show an increase on 2010 for Labour perhaps.
I think it’s likely that the LDs would hold all of the 3 North-Western seats you mention, TheResults. Cheadle is a hard one to call but the Tories have certainly recovered there better than in Sheffield Hallam – which I regard as a somewhat comparable seat – and if there were a general election today I’d expect the Tories to gain it.
On balance you would have to say that Cheadle should really be Conservative anyway. Considering the more favourable parts for the Lib Dems were moved to the then-new Hazel Grove in February 1974 (Benefiting Michael Winstanley) it really was a noteworthy gain made by Patsy Calton in 2001. But it’s moving away from the Lib Dems now and will one day revert back to its safe Tory guise.
I believe the reason why Fearn lost this in 1992 had little to do with him as a candidate- It was more to do with the Liberal Democrats’ general collapse in Sefton as a whole, and the decline of his party that year. He was always a well-liked individual was Fearn- Otherwise he wouldn’t have won it back in 1997. So his defeat in 1992 was not attributable to Fearn himself, it was probably because of a regional collapse in the Lib Dem vote, more than the national average- The fall in Bootle was 6.4%, while the fall in Crosby was even sharper- 11.6%- The after-effects of Williams’ departure continuing. Strangely, the fall in Bootle was exactly the same as the decrease here….
Here’s something that may raise a few eyebrows- Former Conservative MP from 1992 to 1997 here Matthew Banks is according to Wikipedia alleged to have joined the Liberal Democrats at the Lib Dem Executive Committee.
At Moray, Scotland in 2008.
No eyebrows raised here TheResults – it’s been known for a long while that Matthew Banks was supporting the LDs.
Lib Dems are very popular on the ground here with a fabuous local track record. I think the Lib dems will get an overall majority next time in the general election
so the majority here could reach 20,000, and over 65%. So frustrating lib dems don’t have more support in Bottle aswell as it would give overall control here aswell.
”So frustrating lib dems don’t have more support in Bottle aswell as it would give overall control here aswell.”
Good God I would love a pint of what Gloy is drinking- By saying ‘Bottle’ instead of Bootle he’s evidently that way inclined!
I saw that Mr Plopwell had posted on Southport, and thought, my, I might actually agree with something he’d said. But then of course he went a little too far.
It would actually be difficult for the LDs to have any less support in “Bottle” than they already do. They can have some of ours from Richmond perhaps.
I feel sorry for whoever would be moved from Richmond to Bootle under your scheme :p
”I feel sorry for whoever would be moved from Richmond to Bootle under your scheme :p”
The Lib Dem vote would sink like a rubber duck at the bottom of the bath! LOL can you imagine- Shipped-in Richmond Lib Dem activist-”We would very much benefit from your support next Thursday old chap”.Bootle resident- “Urm sorry mate can’t understand what you’re saying.”
I thoiught people on here were generally well informed and intelligent
Gloy Popwell’s comment a few threads up is clearly tongue-in-cheek – it’s probably not even him – but Shaun Bennett or Joe B – in an attempt to make Lib Dem supporters look moronic
You mean they aren’t?
Sorry – obviously not all LD supporters are moronic. I would never dream of suggesting that.
And those that are moronic are not necessarily LD supporters….
Probably I should end my comment there
”And those that are moronic are not necessarily LD supporters….”
There’s plenty of people out there who are moronic and support the Tories and Labour!
Southport MP John Pugh was on North West Tonight last night- Something to do with rolling stock on Northern Rail??? Anyway, the report was by Jacey Normand if that triggers any fellow North West posters who may have seen the programme last night?
Apparently the report was to do with overcrowding on trains on Northern Rail. The report was also shown on Inside Out in more detail.
John Pugh has been organising a campaign to speed up the withdrawal of Pacers from the Wigan – Southport line.
Jacey Normand incidentally is one of the programmes’ best reporters IMO and is by all accounts a very nice lady to boot
What have been the boundary changes to this constituency since 1918?
”What have been the boundary changes to this constituency since 1918?”
As far as I’m aware Harry there never have been any at all.
Obviously before the local government changes in 1973 I think it was Southport was still in Lancashire so there may have been one or two minor fluctuations in certain parts of the constituency but I can’t find any evidence of that kind of thing having ever happened.