25 Responses to “Southport”

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1. Ian Lewis

   Brenda Porter is one of those rare politicians who actually inspires people - her commitment and dedication to Southport is beyond question. The local media recognise this; the voters of her once-safe Lib Dem ward recognise this and, I suspect, so does the current MP.

   October 8th, 2007 at 11:09 am
2. Barnaby Marder

   With regard to Peter Crerar’s post, as I’ve already said on the Solihull thread it’s far, far too early for him to be so cocksure & triumphalist. My money’s still on an LD hold here, though if what Merseymike says is true it’s hard to say that the MP is any better than a Tory anyway.

   October 8th, 2007 at 11:23 am
3. Merseymike

   I was at a conference with Brenda this week - it was on equalities and I was giving a history of the gay rights movement. I’ve never voted Tory in my life, but I think she’s one of the most honest and straightforward people I have ever come across in local politics.

   November 2nd, 2007 at 11:46 pm
4. Foregone Conclusion

   I am a long time reader of UK Polling Report, and am somewhat surprised that this constituency hasn’t had more comment. If (as looks likely at the moment) the Lib Dems lose seats to the Tories, this is the kind of place where it might happen - it is, in other words, uncomfortably marginal for Mr Pugh. In addition to that, the Tories have a very popular candidate (or rather, she has the vague approval of many through her very succesful self-promotion - which is a complement to her political nouse rather than an insult). The demographics of Southport work in her favour - the very age group that was least likely to vote Liberal Democrat in 2005, the over-65s, is overrepresented in Southport. It could be described, therefore, as Tory by nature (although willing to go for a popular and sensible Liberal Democrat over a poor Tory candidate, as was shown in the past three elections).

   However, the Lib Dems are mounting a thorough and seemingly succesful fightback, and on the ground are in far better shape than the Tories. Mr Pugh has a fair sized personal vote (although there are many who blame him rather unfairly for the loss of Southport’s Childrens’ A&E four years ago). Out of 21 Southport councillors, only 6 are Conservatives (there is one Labour member, an ex-Tory who defected to keep his place on the Fire Services Board and whose idolisation of Margaret Thatcher sits rather uneasily with the socialism of his Bootle brethren). The Tory infighting in Sefton is obscure and little known but vociferous. The Liberal Democrats have that in their favour.

   I predict a Liberal Democrat victory, but it depends on a strong campaign and the tarnishing of Mrs Porter’s dazzling image (and a drop in the polls for the Conservatives wouldn’t hurt either). Such a victory would be also be very narrow, leading to a majority of less than 500.

   December 22nd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
5. Phillip

   Foregone Conclusion - how can you possibly predict a majority of less than 500? Surely if you think it’s going to be less than 1000 either way it’s impossible to call - especially as we are not even in an election campaign yet.

   January 23rd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
6. Foregone Conclusion

   Because I think that’s the most likely outcome.

   Don’t get me wrong, things are still very volatile, there is a large margin of error, and it’s quite likely (as I’ve tried to explain) that it could be on the wrong side of that line. And if the polls shift considerably in favour of the Conservatives, and against the Lib Dems nationally, then Mr. Pugh is sunk. Call it toss-up if you want, but I decided to leap on one side of the fence because I believe that they will win it.

   To be honest, the main reason for posting was because there was no-one with local knowledge. The prediction is just supplementary really.

   January 23rd, 2009 at 6:00 pm
7. Joe James B

   It strikes me as a perfectly reasonable prospect for a Tory gain but I would bow to local knowledge.

   January 23rd, 2009 at 6:38 pm
8. Crosby Lady

   So the 2,000 who vote for ‘Others’ could decide it?

   I know UKIP & Veritas stood last time but spotted that the Liberal Party stood here back in 2001 and are set to again in 2010. The Green Party stood back then and in ‘97 also.

   February 9th, 2009 at 1:48 am
9. Foregone Conclusion

   There is also a Southport Party which has not stood at previous General Elections. The Southport Party ran under the banner of securing a unitary authority for Southport, its return to Lancashire, and similar demands on local issues. You can get a taste of their approach from their website;

   http://www.thesouthportparty.co.uk/

   The party had a brief flowering of popularity when it was founded about five years ago, with a number of councillors elected. This quickly died, but it regularly puts up candidates in local elections, rarely grabbing even third place. It is generally considered that more likely to take votes from the Conservatives than the Liberal Democrats when it contests a council election, but I don’t know how true this actually is, as I believe that its members came originally from all three parties, and some of the other fringes such as UKIP and the BNP (joint membership is not unknown).

   The Southport Party has a number of wealthy backers, and so shouldn’t have any problem raising the money for the deposit if they wished, or for that matter mounting a modest campaign. I doubt it would take more than 3-4% of the vote at a General Election, but that might of course be crucial.

   February 17th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
10. Doktorb

    http://registers.electoralcommission.org.uk/regulatory-issues/regpoliticalparties.cfm?frmGB=1&frmPartyID=305&frmType=partydetail

    FYI

    February 17th, 2009 at 3:52 pm

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