South Basildon and East Thurrock
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19624 (43.87%)
Labour: 13852 (30.96%)
Liberal Democrat: 5977 (13.36%)
BNP: 2518 (5.63%)
UKIP: 2639 (5.9%)
Independent: 125 (0.28%)
Majority: 5772 (12.91%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18113 (41.9%)
Conservative: 16645 (38.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4926 (11.4%)
Other: 3506 (8.1%)
Majority: 1467 (3.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15578 (36.1%)
Labour: 18720 (43.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4473 (10.4%)
BNP: 2055 (4.8%)
Green: 662 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1143 (2.6%)
Other: 510 (1.2%)
Majority: 3142 (7.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13813 (33.8%)
Labour: 21551 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3691 (9%)
UKIP: 1397 (3.4%)
Other: 423 (1%)
Majority: 7738 (18.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16366 (30.8%)
Labour: 29646 (55.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4608 (8.7%)
Referendum: 2462 (4.6%)
Majority: 13280 (25%)
Boundary changes: the creation of an extra seat in Essex has major knock-on effects throughout the county. The old Basildon seat loses a third of its electorate to the new Basildon and Billericay seat, including the centre of Basildon itself. The remainder of the old seat is joined by Pitsea from the old Billericay seat and East Tilbury from Thurrock. The seat was provisionally to be called East Thurrock and Pitsea, but was renamed in the revised stage.
Profile: The seat now excludes the centre of Basildon, taking in the southern suburbs like Kingswood and Vange and the town of Pitsea to the East that forms a conurbation with Basildon. Basildon is the quintessential “Essex man” town, a 1950s newtown regarded as the home of “white van man” who supported the Conservatives through the 1980s and switched to Labour in 97. The constituency also includes Langdon Country Park and more rural farmland in Orsett ward, the largely working-class commuter town of Stanford and an expanse of industrial marshland along the North of the Thames. The former Shell Haven oil refinery site is currently in the process of massive redevelopment, with Shell and P&O planning a major business park and deep sea container port.
Basildon is something of a bellwether seat, being won by the party that went on to form the government since it was created in 1992. The old Basildon seat was an iconic victory for the Conservatives in 1992, with David Amess`s successful holding of the seat heralding their ultimate victory. Amess himself moved to Southend West following the 1997 boundary changes.
Current MP: Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative) Epping Forest councillor. Contested Ilford South 2005.
Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative) Epping Forest councillor. Contested Ilford South 2005.
Angela Smith(Labour) born 1959, London. Educated at Chalvedon School and Leicester Polytechnic. Former researcher for Michael Meacher MP and head of Public Releations for the League against Cruel Sports. Essex County councillor 1989-1997. First elected as MP for Basildon in 1997. Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from 2002-2006 and Parliamentary Under Secretary in the Department of Communities and Local Government since 2006 (more information at They work for you)
Geoff Williams (Liberal Democrat) Basildon councillor. 
Kerry Smith (UKIP)Christopher Roberts (BNP)None of the above X (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96412
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 17.2%
Born outside UK: 4%
White: 96.7%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 74.1%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 9.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34%
Owner-Occupied: 71.5%
Social Housing: 21.7% (Council: 16.4%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.4%
I think zoos are usually cruel for large animals like big cats, and monkeys,
and remember being quite shocked how awful London Zoo was like in the early 80s as a kid.
Whipsnade, however, is much better, because they give the animals much more space.
I would like to see them like that.
I thought Greens normally back the Lib Dem candidate if they are not standing (eg Cheltenham)
I expect the combined BNP and UKIP vote to be 12% here up from 8% last time.
1. Stephen Metcalfe
2. Angela Evans Smith
3. Chris Roberts or Geoff Williams
5. Kerry Smith
Cons Gain= 4,000 maj
CON 4000
CON 1700
Con Gain
Maj 3100
Con maj 4,500
I think that None of the above X is the strongest candidate. He gives you an option that no other constituency gives – the right to make a valid protest vote.
All the main parties have virtually the same policies delivered in different wrapping paper. All they offer is the choice of getting run over by a train or run over by a car.
CON GAIN
Con gain and I’m going to stick my neck out and say it could be by as much as 5,000.
As far as I can tell, due to boundary changes,
I’m pretty sure Labour’s share of the vote is about where it was in 1987 here (but better than in 1983).
The Tory % vote is about 3.5 points below 1992.
So it would also be below 1987, but above 1983 (and 1979)
Interesting that the Tory share hasn’t surged back here particularly in one go – it’s just gone up somewhat above average in three bits,
to a level roughly where it was.
Which seats have included East Tilbury? I guess Essex SE to 1945, then Thurrock to 2010.
sounds right to me.
The Labour vote in Essex did increase very slightly between 1983 and 2010:
Essex, 1983:
C – 51.9%, Lab – 17.8%, All – 29.7%, Oths – 0.6%
Essex, 2010:
C – 48.9%, Lab – 18.2%, All – 21.9%, Oths – 11.1%
That increase is actually slightly higher as a proportion than the general Labour increase in England outside London and Merseyside where the Labour vote was 25.97% in 1983 and 25.99% in 2010. (In England as a whole the Labour vote was 26.9% in 1983 and 28.1% in 2010).
The increase certainly didn’t occur where Labour needed it however. It was down in this seat, almost certainly down in Basildon (boundary changes make comparisons difficult), down in Harlow. It was down in all the seats of South and West Essex from Saffron Walden round to Castle Point. It was however up significantly in Southend and in Rayleigh (compared with the old Rochford) and also in parts of North Essex such as Braintree/Witham and most notably of all in Clacton – 25% in 2010 against 16% in the more favuorable Harwich seat in. In fact if you removed that one seat it might mean their share in the remainder of Essex was lower than in 1983. It is of course a classic case of the declining seaside towns of which Clacton is the most notable example in Essex. A similar pattern can be seen in Kent with a lower Labour share than 1983 in the likes of Gravesham and Medway but significantly higher in the Thanet seats, Dover etc
Interesting that the commision have decided against re-creating the classic Basildon seat if 1983-2005
Having looked at the map, the new seat which Basildon is named in only contains the western part of the town, with the eastern part seemingly in a different constituency – which one I can’t work out
Well I initially thought that the proposed new Basildon seat was significantly worse for the Tories than the present one. But looking at the notional results it seems not.
Strange that they decided to cal the proposed seat Basildon and East Thurrock (implying the whole of Basildon rather than just part of it as the presently named seat makes clear). It does sound better and is less unwieldy though.
Basildon itself is actually quite a large town and it’s not been totally united in one parliamentary seat for quite some time even though there’s been a seat called simply Basildon from 1974 until last year. Even with the new larger constituencies it would be pushing it to put the whole urban area into one seat & stay in quota.
That last sentence is not correct but the first one is. Sorry.
‘Strange that they decided to cal the proposed seat Basildon and East Thurrock’
It’s downright bizarre Shaun
West Basildon & East Thurrock surely
Although a lot of the seats seem mis-named
Like the Uckfield seat which extends 20 miles down to the coast incorporating Seaford – which is as big as Uckfield – if not bigger
Does anybody know which seat the eastern part of Basildon goes into
The two Pitsea wards and Vange are going to Rayleigh & Wickford.
The 1997-2010 version of Basildon also excluded the two Pitsea wards (they were in Billericay) and included ‘East Thurrock’ (not including East Tilbury as now, but including Orsett), but the name was plain Basildon.
Thanks Pete – I suspected you might have known
Indeed Tim, Uckfield and Seaford would work as well given that many other seats are now proposed to be created with similar sort of pairings. Perhaps that will emerge on consultation.
Or perhaps they thought that calling it Seaford would confuse with Sleaford (after losing the North Hykeham part of the name). Although, I note that they propose the creation of a Derby West seat (as they did initially in the last review) despite it having been argued last time that it would confuse with the West Derby division of Liverpool.
2012 Local Election results for Basildon South and Thurrock East Constituency (made up of wards from Thurrock and Basildon). Includes estimated change on 2011
Lab 34.3% (+1.7%)
Con 32.3% (-7.9%)
UKIP 18.8% (+4.6%)
LD 7.7% (-0.1%)
Oth 6.9% (+1.7%)
The change figures are estimates as whilst all wards voted in 2012, some didnt in 2011 (so for that year I rolled forward the 2010 results) – However this hasn’t taken account of the higher turnout that year – so these seats (Orsett and Langdon Hills) would have probably exagerated the Tory share in 2011.
The basic story would still hold that Labour won the most votes, with the Conservative share down and UKIP up. In fact the interesting thing here is that I imagined the Thurrock constituency to have a bigger UKIP share (and that’s where they won they seat). However their vote share here is was actually a couple of percentage points higher.
Perhaps Labour would have liked a bigger lead than that. Of course the Tories’ best bet is to try & woo the UKIP supporters back, and were the boundary changes not to take place one would still fancy the Tories to hold this seat at this time. Not Thurrock though, at the moment.
Thanks – I’m grateful to someone working out these complicated figures.
Factoring in some 2010 results may under-state Labour a bit though,
but it seems a much more patchy pattern than those regularly achieved before 1997 (except 1991/2).
Andy it would be good to have census figures for this seat to see how it comepares to Thurrock next door.