Comments on: Southampton Itchen

By: jasper

jasper — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 00:50:24 +0000

Interesting that, although Labour lost votes in the 2010 parliamentaries in both Test and Itchen, they gained 2 Test seats in the local elections that year, and went on to gain 2 seats in Test and 2 in Itchen 2011. It will be worth watching carefully whether John Denham’s announcement affects the 2012 local results in Itchen. And also, of course, how the planned Boundary changes may affect ward results in both Southampton constituencies. If these changes are, in fact, finally implemented, it will be a long game predicting the the results of the next national polls in Test and Itchen.

By: Andrea

Andrea — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 10:59:34 +0000

Denham just announced he will stand down at next GE

By: David

David — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 18:23:48 +0000

Sticking with Southampton, the Test figures for 2011 (compared with 2010) are
Lab 43.1% (+7.4%)
Con 33.5% (+1.5%)
LD 14.1% (-14.5%)
Oth 9.3% (+5.6%)

Labour’s share was very similar across Test and Itchen in the 2011 locals. The Tory vote seems to be a little weaker in Test compared to Itchen.

By: David

David — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 18:11:59 +0000

2011 local election results for Itchen with change on 2010

Lab 43.2% (+8.4%)
Con 39.9% (+4.3%)
LD 12.3% (-13.3%)
Oth 4.5% (+0.6%)

Interestingly thats a swing of just 2% from Con to Lab, much less than in some of the other seats I’ve looked at (for example it was 4% in Elmet, Wirral S, Sefton Central and 5% in Plymouth Sutton/Devonport, Leeds North East).

Lab won all seats except Con wins in Harefield and Bitterene Park.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 23:24:06 +0000

Although this belongs to a different thread, just for your benefit Tim Brighton Kemptown has always included Ovingdean & Rottingdean since its formation, and the western part of Saltdean. The rest of Saltdean was added in 1997 along with Peacehaven & Telscombe Cliffs. Hanover may have been staunch Labour in the past but it’s looking like a safe Green ward at the moment.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 13:29:15 +0000

Never really seen the amazingness of John Denham personally. I suspect that like most of the modern day politicans with a reputation for being particularly excellent, it is due to the generally poor performance of colleagues than to genuine greatness-and thats accross ALL parties.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 12:23:13 +0000

John Denham was on QT last night in one of his weakest performances to date

He usually comes across quite well in public – but last night he seemed all over the place

By: richard

richard — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 17:16:45 +0000

“High home ownership + high graduates + medium students = intellectual”

MEDIUM home ownership + high graduates + medium students = intellectual

would be better.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 15:30:06 +0000

I’ll come back to these interesting points later.
At the moment I think it’s somewhat confusing –
the evidence that we’ve just had is that
both main parties are if anything getting stronger in their own areas but not really able to knock the other one out elsewhere,
and the LDs are down significantly – whether it collapses longer term we’re still not sure.

But the General Election last year didn’t show Labour holding up well in safe areas except the more urban ones.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 11:42:15 +0000

Interesting analysis Richard although i think the rural/urban element an important distinguisher in today’s political landscape