134 Responses to “Southampton Itchen”

1. Tim Jones

   Not at all – I wasn’t even having a ‘pop’ just saying to Joe more than anyone else – that there were plenty of Tory supporters whose predictions were way off too – Paul Mateo being one of them

   Notwithstanding your pro-European views – which tbh probably disqualify you from being in today’s Tory Party altogether. From what I remember – and do correct me if I’m wrong – your two big politcal themes were wanting to privatise the NHS and the introduction of a flat rate of income tax – two issues which surely you would have to agree place you waaay to the right of today’s political centre

   Not even the Cornerstone Group – who want to turn the Conservative Party into the US Republicans – wants to privatise the NHS – not yet anyway

   June 27th, 2011 at 7:25 pm
2. Joe James B

   I don’t want to privatise the NHS,
   and I strongly suspect the NHS is often world class when it’s a very serious matter – for example the teaching hospitals, but much more than that.

   But I don’t buy this emotional blackmail that there is nothing that can be improved
   , and that there aren’t cases of neglect and abuse aswell.
   I suspect the management is often non specialist and not concerned first and foremost with patients, and practicalities.

   I would probably go for a German/French/Australian system myself – but if in Britain that puts you on the extreme right, so be it.

   June 27th, 2011 at 10:42 pm
3. Shaun Bennett

   Well I didn’t see that prediction from Paul Mateo before the election in this seat (clearly we can’t be expected to see EVERYTHING on the site unless we spend our entire day on here) but if I had, I would have said that its very highly unlikely that we would be gaining this seat.

   Indeed, I think my prediction beofre the election upthread still had this down as a safish Labour seat.

   But as it happens, with the majority reduced to just 192-almost a virtual tie between Labour and Tory-it would seem that Paul Mateo’s comments before the election have to be respected as a very good prediction whether you like it or not. He so very nearly got it right-much to the surprise of us all I think.

   June 28th, 2011 at 8:34 am
4. H.Hemmelig

   I agree with Shaun. An excellent prediction from Paul Mateo who might well have very good local knowledge. It’s always great when one of these predictions happens – or almost happens – after everyone has ridiculed it. I had a very similar experience with my forecast for the Lib Dems in Ashfield, where I have extensive local knowledge. This kind of thing is this site at its best.

   Tim you are mis-remembering again. I wrote a post on here just last week saying I was against a flat tax as it would be political suicide especially in the north.

   I also favour a cautious approach to NHS reform, but like Joe I also believe that its important not to completely capitulate to the unions and vested interests. Although I believe we should be harder with the teachers and tube drivers than with doctors and nurses. I certainly do not want to “privatise the NHS”.

   June 28th, 2011 at 9:06 am
5. Tim Jones

   I’m sure I remember you saying – can’t remember which seat/thread – about 2-3 years ago that you would definitely be voting Tory if they supported a flat tax

   You also praised Nick Herbert (after I had criticsed him) on the basis that he is one of the few politicians who has had the honesty to come out and say the NHS should be scrapped altogether and we should introduce a private system based on what they used to have in America – which I took excemption to because like Joe I think when it comes to many things – the NHS is world class – and despise politicians like Herbert and Hannon who want to scrap it

   Paul Mateo wasn’t making a prediction. He was stating what he thought would be a factual comment. That it has happened makes his presumption anything but excellent – although i take Shaun and Hemelig’s point that he must have known something that most of us didn’t because this seat was much closer to a Tory gain than any of us could have possibly imagined

   Unsurporising to seeing this revert to being a safer Labour seat, with a core Liberal vote to squeeze

   June 28th, 2011 at 9:36 am
6. H.Hemmelig

   “Unsurporising to seeing this revert to being a safer Labour seat”

   You may be right, but I’m not so sure.

   Labour is continuing to underperform badly in the south east, including in their best areas.

   I would be more confident that similarly unexpected close seats in the north – like Grimsby – will return to being safe Labour than I am about the Southampton seats.

   If this does return to being safe Labour in 2015 my hunch is that Labour will be at the very least the largest party in a hung parliament.

   June 28th, 2011 at 9:46 am
7. Shaun Bennett

   Yes, I was the one doing most of the rubbishing of Hemmelig’s predictions in Ashfield ahead of the election. I never expected the seat to be that close, and particularly not expecting the Lib Dem surge there even though they had done well in council elections previously. I was of course wrong.

   I would say of course that I would not expect any form of further Lib Dem advance to actually take the seat next time, but Hemmelig would probably agree with me on that.

   Nevertheless, I will be listening much closer to both Hemmelig AND Paul Matteo’s local knowledge in these seats ahead of the next election.

   June 28th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
8. H.Hemmelig

   Thanks. Yes, Labour are safe in Ashfield now.

   I think the Lib Dems will hold second place over the Tories but they could well experience a 10-15% swing to Labour.

   In your neck of the woods, Newcastle-under-Lyme is interesting. I have no local knowledge but, as with Southampton, I would hesitate before predicting a big Labour rebound as is going to happen in Ashfield and much of the north. What are your thoughts?

   June 28th, 2011 at 3:27 pm
9. Andy JS

   Do you count Ashfield and Newcastle-under-Lyme as the North? I’d put them both in the Midlands.

   June 28th, 2011 at 6:41 pm
10. Shaun Bennett

    Newcastle-Under-Lyme IS interesting, as Hemmelig says because it is one of the key marginals of the future. It won’t be too long before that seat is one of those that swings with the winning party.

    Next time my feelings are that Labour will hold on with an increased majority, but it should in no way be considered truely ‘safe’.

    Of course, at the moment, the secret to Tory success has not only been advances in the town itself, but also huge UKIP advances in the traditional Labour areas to the west of the town such as Silverdale, Knutton and Cross Heath. Traditionally the Tories could not compete with Labour in those wards, so with UKIP eating into the Labour lead there, it made the overall contest much more difficult for Labour because of course they had to put effort into just winning wards they could formerly rely on.

    With Labour now in opposition, I think we have to presume that those formerly safe Labour wards will return heavily to them-and we have seen that process begin this year with the loss of 3 out of 5 UKIP seats on the council to Labour (although narrowly in Silverdale and Knutton).

    So I think Labour could bounce back in Newcastle quite effectively in the short-term actually so long as they can win both from the Tories in the town and from UKIP in their old safe wards. UKIP will of course be wiped off the council next year in all probability.

    But when Labour are next in government and unpopular, Newcastle will be perfectly capable of moving very strongly back to the Tories as it has in recent years. The town itself is now becomming slightly more Tory over time and if boundary changes add Loggerheads ward and also Madeley ward, it will provide another boost for them. Although, as I say, Labour should be ok next time at least.

    And yes, shfield and Newcastle-both in the midlands!

    June 29th, 2011 at 8:25 am
11. A Cairns

    ‘Unsurprising to seeing this revert to being a safer Labour seat, with a core Liberal vote to squeeze’

    depends by how much safer I suppose.

    The LD vote could be squeezed back to 12% or so but even though this is an urban seat this is in the SE the tory vote may hold up so perhaps a Lab maj of only 5-8% is likely as this is a tory target seat.

    June 29th, 2011 at 10:56 am
12. Tim Jones

    ‘. Traditionally the Tories could not compete with Labour in those wards, so with UKIP eating into the Labour lead there, it made the overall contest much more difficult for Labour because of course they had to put effort into just winning wards they could formerly rely on.’

    It seems odd, to say the least, that UKIP can challenge Labour in wards that the Tories couldn’t given that UKIP is essentially a conservative party more to the right than the Tories

    I don’t know the areas you mention, but would have thought that if disillusioned Labour voters were to switch rtheor support to a party further to the Right they were plump for the BNP, the Tories, or even the English Democrats, not UKIP – whose core appeal must to be little Englanders in the higher social classes

    With this seat – whgatever the boundary commisuon do to it at the upcoming review, it would take a pretty extreme set of events to imagine Labour not holding it in the near future

    I don’t know the areas you list at all

    June 29th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
13. H.Hemmelig

    “I don’t know the areas you mention, but would have thought that if disillusioned Labour voters were to switch rtheor support to a party further to the Right they were plump for the BNP, the Tories, or even the English Democrats, not UKIP – whose core appeal must to be little Englanders in the higher social classes”

    You have got a very snooty way of describing people who are not of your own sort, Tim

    My Dad worked for the social services departments in Ashfield and Mansfield for 40 years, mostly dealing with repaet juvenile offenders in what is quite a depressed area.

    The BNP has been quite strong in the area, and my dad recognised many of the prominent local activists and candidates as from families he had dealings with in the past.

    When the BNP locally is largely made up of people who are well known as thickos, wasters and former criminals, it holds them back significantly. Working class people often place a high value on their MPs and councillors having the education and ability to do the job properly.

    When UKIP put up the right candidates they can scoop up this demographic very effectively. I saw Kilroy campaigning in Alfreton in 2004 and he had all the middle aged ladies cooing. he topped the poll in that Euro election both in Ashfield and in Amber Valley.

    June 29th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
14. Shaun Bennett

    “It seems odd, to say the least, that UKIP can challenge Labour in wards that the Tories couldn’t given that UKIP is essentially a conservative party more to the right than the Tories”

    Yes that’s true Tim. But do voters always vote for the party that they ‘should’ based on their political belief system? Is it reasonable for Tories to vote for the far left Green Party for instance? Come to that, if Labour (left wing) voters are disillusioned, surely they should be going to the far left rather than to the far right?

    In Newcastle, UKIP have flourished in wards where there has been little or no Tory prospect or tradition. They have not done well where Tories are stronger. Now that could be because at a time when the Tories were doing ‘well’ nationally, UKIP couldn’t compete for Tory votes, but they could fill the gap left by the Tories in those old Labour areas.

    Or perhaps a lot of the Labour vote even in their core areas is really made up of a significant minority of essentially right-wingers who cannot bring themselves to back the old enemy, the Tories (in Silverdale, a mining ward that supported the striking miners in the 80s, Tories are indeed still seen in this light).

    Of course, given that evidence seems to suggest that up to now UKIP have been as good or better at attracting Labour and Lib Dem supporters as they are Tories, perhaps we should review our idea that UKIP are somehow against the prejudice’s of left wing voters. A lot of left wing voters in my experience are pretty small ‘c’ conservative, anti European people.

    In fact, perhaps you could equally argue that the Conservative Party has survived so well BECAUSE working class, left wing voters are in fact closet or natural Conservatives that don’t realise it. After all, they do get that demographic vote from somewhere don’t they!

    I was a little puzzled by your last coment though Tim: “would have thought that if disillusioned Labour voters were to switch their support to a party further to the Right they were plump for the BNP, the Tories, or even the English Democrats, not UKIP – whose core appeal must to be little Englanders in the higher social classes”

    strange that you are still happier placing the tories in the same bracket as the BNP and English Democrats than you are with UKIP which-by contrast-you almost seem to think is respectable!

    June 29th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
15. Shaun Bennett

    Oh and PS, another reason for the growth of UKIP in Newcastle which I forgot to mention is that the BNP didn’t actually contest wards in the borough until the last 2 or 3 years. So there was not the competition that Tim mentions. By the time the BNP started to cast their net wider than neighbouring Stoke-on-Trent, UKIP had already become established in Newcastle.

    I should also mention that a lot of UKIP activists and leaders in Newcastle range from the right wing fromer Tories such as Cllr Dave Nixon and also the harder left former Labour councillors such as Derrick Huckfield. They have a broad appeal therefore to both left and right in the borough-with the former Labour people winning particularly in former Labour areas…although Dave Nixon was elected in 2008 for Cross Heath, presumably it was old Labour voters that would have put him there based on the UKIP ticket rather than on his own fairly Tory views.

    June 29th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
16. Tim Jones

    ‘When the BNP locally is largely made up of people who are well known as thickos, wasters and former criminals, it holds them back significantly. Working class people often place a high value on their MPs and councillors having the education and ability to do the job properly.

    Whilst UKIP’s misbehaving representatives might be more likely to have convictions for fraud as opposed to promoting racial hatred and violence, but there are still have their fair share of shady people with pretty wacky views – such as the Kilroy Silks of this world

    With the Tories and even Labour having become increasingly Euroskeptic over the last 5 years or so, I find it hard to fathom that UKIP are getting votes from any social group, but especially a group that they arguably view with less sympathy than the other political parties

    They obviously do have genuine appeal – I just can’t see it

    June 29th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
17. Tim Jones

    In Newcastle, UKIP have flourished in wards where there has been little or no Tory prospect or tradition. They have not done well where Tories are stronger. Now that could be because at a time when the Tories were doing ‘well’ nationally, UKIP couldn’t compete for Tory votes, but they could fill the gap left by the Tories in those old Labour areas.

    But in general elections UKIP typically get their highest % vote in safish Tory seats in the South of England – they even pipped Labour to 3rd place in some Tory/Lib Dem in Cornwall and Devon

    June 29th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
18. Shaun Bennett

    Oh yes thats of course right. At general elctions, UKIP do better in the south-although ‘better’ usually only means 5-7% so we have to put that into context.

    I’m just saying what happens in Newcastle where UKIP votes are generally Labour voters rather than Tories (up to now). But at the moment for instance, the most UKIP part of the country seems to be Ramsey in Huntingdonshire where they have control of the town council and have the local district and county seats. Now thats a more Tory area with fewer Labour voters. Perhaps the ‘southern’ UKIP vote is more Tory than the northern?

    Its difficult comparing local elections to generals for all the usual reasons-not least because people who back minority parties like UKIP in locals tend to still be more inclined to back a major party in generals.

    June 29th, 2011 at 2:48 pm
19. Tim Jones

    ‘Its difficult comparing local elections to generals for all the usual reasons-not least because people who back minority parties like UKIP in locals tend to still be more inclined to back a major party in generals’

    Absolutely – although UKIP’s success is largely down to the PR system that New Labour decided to adopt for European elections – so too the BNP

    ‘strange that you are still happier placing the tories in the same bracket as the BNP and English Democrats than you are with UKIP which-by contrast-you almost seem to think is respectable!’

    You misunderstand me Shaun.

    I only placed the Tories in the same bracket as the BNP and English Democrats as alternative right-of-centre parties that people could vote for instead of UKIP

    You make the point yourself that part of the reason the Conservative Party has survived so well is because many working class voters are in fact natural conservatives – so what is it about UKIP that people vote for them instead

    Of all political parties, UKIP are much more right wing that the Tories (who have too many social liberals) and the BNP (who look to the state rather than individuals for the solutions)

    In their last election m,anifesto it wsas UKIP who were for cutting the defecit fastest and wanted a complete overhual of the welfare state, including the NHS

    My point is that surely such policies are only goping to appeal to those groups that can afford private healthcare and who eirther have jobs for life or no need to work – and those in such a predicament are unlikely to be amongst the poor

    June 29th, 2011 at 6:06 pm
20. richard

    TJ:

    “I was very surprised that the Tories did better in this seat than that of Southampton Test Valley for three reasons

    …

    2) This is definitely the more working class and more undesirable of the two Southampton seats”

    The Conservatives did better in the more working class and undesirable constituencies in Plymouth, Portsmouth and Brighton as well.

    Though whether working class implies undesirable is arguable.

    June 30th, 2011 at 8:26 am
21. H.Hemmelig

    Nor does working class=poor and middle class=rich these days.

    Plenty of plumbers and builders earn six figure incomes, aided by being dishonest with the tax people.

    And there are plenty of low income middle class people.

    Tim’s class mentality is a bit 1950s.

    June 30th, 2011 at 9:42 am
22. Tim Jones

    I don’t know how true that is in Portsmouth as I don’t know the toiwn that well but i’d argue the reverse in the cases of Brighton and Plymouth

    Of the two Brighton constituencies Kemp Town has traditionally been the more working class seat – and whilst it still takes in wards like East Brighton with its vast council estates, subsequent boundary changes have moved many of its wards – such as the staunchly Labour Hannover – into the Pavilion seat, whilst expanding the constituency eastwards so it takes in the much more middle class towns like Rottingdean, Ovingdean and Saltdean. Also much of Kemptown has been gentrified with its marina and places like Sussex Square house some of the most exclusive properties in the town – although I guess that should now be city

    In the case of Plymouth the newly created Moor View seat that stuck with Labour, covers the northern part of the town with its hillside estates and terraced housing. Again most of the desirable property would be in the Sutton & Devonport seat

    ‘Nor does working class=poor and middle class=rich these days.’

    Of course it doesn’t – if it ever has

    June 30th, 2011 at 9:45 am
23. richard

    But the swing in Moor View was higher than in Sutton/Devonport.

    As for Brighton there may have been changes over the last decade but the 2001 demographics show a much higher level of graduates and students in Pavilion than in Kemptown with home ownership being at the same levels.

    June 30th, 2011 at 10:09 am
24. richard

    I associate certain demographic numbers with various types of constituency:

    High home ownership + medium graduates + low students = suburban

    High home ownership + high graduates + medium students = intellectual

    High home ownership + high graduates = posh

    High home ownership + low graduates = uwc/lmc

    Medium home ownership + high graduates = trendy

    Low home ownership + high graduates = urban trendy

    Low home ownership + low graduates = sh1thole

    I wonder if Pete could do some complicated Venn diagrams showing where individual constituencies fall and how they correlate to voting patterns.

    June 30th, 2011 at 10:23 am
25. Tim Jones

    Interesting analysis Richard although i think the rural/urban element an important distinguisher in today’s political landscape

    June 30th, 2011 at 11:42 am
26. Joe James B

    I’ll come back to these interesting points later.
    At the moment I think it’s somewhat confusing –
    the evidence that we’ve just had is that
    both main parties are if anything getting stronger in their own areas but not really able to knock the other one out elsewhere,
    and the LDs are down significantly – whether it collapses longer term we’re still not sure.

    But the General Election last year didn’t show Labour holding up well in safe areas except the more urban ones.

    June 30th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
27. richard

    “High home ownership + high graduates + medium students = intellectual”

    MEDIUM home ownership + high graduates + medium students = intellectual

    would be better.

    June 30th, 2011 at 5:16 pm
28. Tim Jones

    John Denham was on QT last night in one of his weakest performances to date

    He usually comes across quite well in public – but last night he seemed all over the place

    July 1st, 2011 at 12:23 pm
29. Shaun Bennett

    Never really seen the amazingness of John Denham personally. I suspect that like most of the modern day politicans with a reputation for being particularly excellent, it is due to the generally poor performance of colleagues than to genuine greatness-and thats accross ALL parties.

    July 1st, 2011 at 1:29 pm
30. Barnaby Marder

    Although this belongs to a different thread, just for your benefit Tim Brighton Kemptown has always included Ovingdean & Rottingdean since its formation, and the western part of Saltdean. The rest of Saltdean was added in 1997 along with Peacehaven & Telscombe Cliffs. Hanover may have been staunch Labour in the past but it’s looking like a safe Green ward at the moment.

    July 1st, 2011 at 11:24 pm
31. David

    2011 local election results for Itchen with change on 2010

    Lab 43.2% (+8.4%)
    Con 39.9% (+4.3%)
    LD 12.3% (-13.3%)
    Oth 4.5% (+0.6%)

    Interestingly thats a swing of just 2% from Con to Lab, much less than in some of the other seats I’ve looked at (for example it was 4% in Elmet, Wirral S, Sefton Central and 5% in Plymouth Sutton/Devonport, Leeds North East).

    Lab won all seats except Con wins in Harefield and Bitterene Park.

    August 24th, 2011 at 6:11 pm
32. David

    Sticking with Southampton, the Test figures for 2011 (compared with 2010) are
    Lab 43.1% (+7.4%)
    Con 33.5% (+1.5%)
    LD 14.1% (-14.5%)
    Oth 9.3% (+5.6%)

    Labour’s share was very similar across Test and Itchen in the 2011 locals. The Tory vote seems to be a little weaker in Test compared to Itchen.

    August 24th, 2011 at 6:23 pm
33. Andrea

    Denham just announced he will stand down at next GE

    October 7th, 2011 at 10:59 am
34. jasper

    Interesting that, although Labour lost votes in the 2010 parliamentaries in both Test and Itchen, they gained 2 Test seats in the local elections that year, and went on to gain 2 seats in Test and 2 in Itchen 2011. It will be worth watching carefully whether John Denham’s announcement affects the 2012 local results in Itchen. And also, of course, how the planned Boundary changes may affect ward results in both Southampton constituencies. If these changes are, in fact, finally implemented, it will be a long game predicting the the results of the next national polls in Test and Itchen.

    October 23rd, 2011 at 12:50 am

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website

CAPTCHA Code *