Southampton Itchen
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16134 (36.33%)
Labour: 16326 (36.76%)
Liberal Democrat: 9256 (20.84%)
UKIP: 1928 (4.34%)
Green: 600 (1.35%)
TUSC: 168 (0.38%)
Majority: 192 (0.43%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19581 (48.3%)
Conservative: 11097 (27.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8354 (20.6%)
Other: 1488 (3.7%)
Majority: 8484 (20.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11569 (26.8%)
Labour: 20871 (48.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9162 (21.2%)
UKIP: 1623 (3.8%)
Majority: 9302 (21.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11330 (27.4%)
Labour: 22553 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6195 (15%)
UKIP: 829 (2%)
Other: 466 (1.1%)
Majority: 11223 (27.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15289 (28.4%)
Labour: 29498 (54.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6289 (11.7%)
Referendum: 1660 (3.1%)
Other: 1122 (2.1%)
Majority: 14209 (26.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Denham(Labour) born 1953, Devon. Educated at Woodroffe Comprehensive and Southampton University. Formerly worked for Friends of the Earth, the British Council and War on Want. Hampshire county councillor 1981-1989. Southampton councillor 1989-1993. Contested Southampton Itchen 1983, 1987. First elected as MP for Southampton Itchen 1992. Under-secretary for social security 1997-1998, Minister of State for Social Security 1998-1999, Minister of State for Health 1999-2001 and at the Home Office 2001-2003, when he resigned over his opposition to the war in Iraq. Appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of State for Universities and Skills in Gordon Brown`s first cabinet in 2007. Secretary of State for Communities and local government 2009-2010 (more information at They work for you)
Royston Smith (Conservative) Southampton councillor since 2000 and deputy leader of the council.John Denham(Labour) born 1953, Devon. Educated at Woodroffe Comprehensive and Southampton University. Formerly worked for Friends of the Earth, the British Council and War on Want. Hampshire county councillor 1981-1989. Southampton councillor 1989-1993. Contested Southampton Itchen 1983, 1987. First elected as MP for Southampton Itchen 1992. Under-secretary for social security 1997-1998, Minister of State for Social Security 1998-1999, Minister of State for Health 1999-2001 and at the Home Office 2001-2003, when he resigned over his opposition to the war in Iraq. Appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of State for Universities and Skills in Gordon Brown`s first cabinet in 2007. Secretary of State for Communities and local government since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
David Goodall (Liberal Democrat) born Southampton. Educated at Cowes High School and Portsmouth polytechnic. Network Security Technology consultant. Eastleigh borough councillor since 2002. Contested Southampton Itchen 2005.
John Spottiswoode (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Programme manager. Former Suffolk county councillor. 
Alan Kebbell (UKIP) Tim Cutter (TUSC)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92904
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 6.2%
White: 95.2%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 69.6%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 8.8%
Graduates 16-74: 13.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.9%
Owner-Occupied: 60.4%
Social Housing: 25.4% (Council: 21.1%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 11.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.7%
A 10%+ swing seems improbable here. This seat looks safer to me than Test & I don’t think a Tory gain is likely in either now. I reckon at least a 1,700 Labour majority.
I think this will go Lib Dem , Im a Voter in this constituency which has a large number of council estates. Everyone I speak to who would normally vote Labour is switching to Lib Dem as the Government is Unpopular. However John Denham is a well liked and popular local MP. The view on the ground here is Lib Dem but it will be close
I can’t see this seat going Lib Dem. The Lib Dems would need a swing from Labour of 14%, which is very high indeed. However, a collapse in the Labour vote might allow this seat to go to the Tories.
Lab maj 3000
I’ve down graded this – my model suggests 5,00 but the comments here sound like both opp parties are working hard.
I think liberal by 400 votes in this seat
That’s a rather overoptimistic forecast. LAB HOLD
Lab holds on by 192 after a 10.3% swing to the Tories.
Oh so close!
The gap was wider in Test, contrary to 1992.
I thought Test would be a better Tory prospect so this result was surprising. That was the problem for the Tories – deciding which Southampton seat would be more likely to fall to them.
When Horace King was elected Speaker of the House in 1965, he was the first Labour MP, the first Southampton MP, the first trade unionist, and the first teacher to be Speaker. The other three Labour Speakers to date have of course been George Thomas, Betty Boothroyd, and Michael Martin.
The Conservative recovery in Southampton does strike me as pretty dramatic,
although Labour has remained much stronger than in the 1980s, holding both seats.
Southampton seemed to me to be an early indication of the Tory party’s decline from office prior to 1997.
I remember them losing a council by-election in 1993 with a 40% swing. They were doing so badly that there was room for both Labour and the LDs to do well at the same time.
Have read back through some old posts here.
I had heard from other people that John Denham is not as popular as he was because of cuts in higher education (when he was in office), but couldn’t speculate whether that’s a big movement of votes in one seat.