Southampton Itchen
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19581 (48.3%)
Conservative: 11097 (27.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8354 (20.6%)
Other: 1488 (3.7%)
Majority: 8484 (20.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11569 (26.8%)
Labour: 20871 (48.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9162 (21.2%)
UKIP: 1623 (3.8%)
Majority: 9302 (21.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11330 (27.4%)
Labour: 22553 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6195 (15%)
UKIP: 829 (2%)
Other: 466 (1.1%)
Majority: 11223 (27.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15289 (28.4%)
Labour: 29498 (54.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6289 (11.7%)
Referendum: 1660 (3.1%)
Other: 1122 (2.1%)
Majority: 14209 (26.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: John Denham(Labour) born 1953, Devon. Educated at Woodroffe Comprehensive and Southampton University. Formerly worked for Friends of the Earth, the British Council and War on Want. Hampshire county councillor 1981-1989. Southampton councillor 1989-1993. Contested Southampton Itchen 1983, 1987. First elected as MP for Southampton Itchen 1992. Under-secretary for social security 1997-1998, Minister of State for Social Security 1998-1999, Minister of State for Health 1999-2001 and at the Home Office 2001-2003, when he resigned over his opposition to the war in Iraq. Appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of State for Universities and Skills in Gordon Brown`s first cabinet in 2007. Secretary of State for Communities and local government since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Royston Smith (Conservative) Southampton councillor since 2000 and deputy leader of the council.John Denham(Labour) born 1953, Devon. Educated at Woodroffe Comprehensive and Southampton University. Formerly worked for Friends of the Earth, the British Council and War on Want. Hampshire county councillor 1981-1989. Southampton councillor 1989-1993. Contested Southampton Itchen 1983, 1987. First elected as MP for Southampton Itchen 1992. Under-secretary for social security 1997-1998, Minister of State for Social Security 1998-1999, Minister of State for Health 1999-2001 and at the Home Office 2001-2003, when he resigned over his opposition to the war in Iraq. Appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of State for Universities and Skills in Gordon Brown`s first cabinet in 2007. Secretary of State for Communities and local government since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
David Goodall (Liberal Democrat) born Southampton. Educated at Cowes High School and Portsmouth polytechnic. Network Security Technology consultant. Eastleigh borough councillor since 2002. Contested Southampton Itchen 2005.
John Spottiswoode (Green) Educated at Bristol University. Programme manager. Former Suffolk county councillor. 
Alan Kebbell (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92904
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 6.2%
White: 95.2%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 69.6%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 8.8%
Graduates 16-74: 13.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.9%
Owner-Occupied: 60.4%
Social Housing: 25.4% (Council: 21.1%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 11.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.7%
I agree with Pete,
any of those are possible – there’s not a lot of point if one thinks it’ll be that close in Southampton which of the 4 happens.
I suppose the real question is whether Labour does a bit better or not in the event to put both out of range by 6 or 7 points.
I hadn’t seen oblivion’s post when I posted before as it was posted at around the same time. I was not disagreing that the Tories have a good chance at this seat – rather I was drawing attention to the rather surprising odds that shadsy was offering here especially when compared to Southampton Test. Due to various boundary changes, the tradition that Test was a belwather marginal while Itchen was a relatively safe Labour seat has not applied since 1983.
It is worthwhile looking at the most recent local elections in Southampton which show not so much a similarity between the two constituencies as that Itchen is if anything the better half of the city now for the Conservatives:
2008
Southampton Itchen
Con 10889 49.5%
Lab 6527 29.7%
LD 3353 15.2%
Oth 1227 5.6%
Southampton Test
Con 9324 43.2%
Lab 6105 28.3%
LD 4166 19.3%
Oth 1965 9.1%
The Conservatives won 6 wards to 1 Labour in each seat
2007
Southampton Itchen
Con 8621 39.4%
Lab 7637 34.9%
LD 4524 20.7%
Oth 1078 4.9%
Southampton Test
Con 7359 32.5%
Lab 7107 31.4%
LD 5263 23.3%
Oth 2890 12.8%
The Conservatives won 4 wards to 3 Labour in each seat
“It is worthwhile looking at the most recent local elections in Southampton which show not so much a similarity between the two constituencies as that Itchen is if anything the better half of the city now for the Conservatives”
Could that not be because Labour have had a more active campaign in Test because it’s the “marginal” seat and Itchen is the “safe” seat rather than because of a significant demographic change.
Labour do seem to have upped their game in Southampton generally recently – in the last few months they seem to have been everywhere!
Tim Cutter selected for TUSC. Interesting name given this party’s view on cuts!
“I hadn’t seen oblivion’s post when I posted before as it was posted at around the same time. I was not disagreing that the Tories have a good chance at this seat – rather I was drawing attention to the rather surprising odds that shadsy was offering here especially when compared to Southampton Test.”
It would indeed be unusual if Southampton Test returned a Labour MP and Southampton Itchen a Tory.
It would be not only unusual but unique since Southampton was split into two seperate constituencies 60 years ago. However, though Test was Tory in 1992 while Itchen was Labour, both results were so close that it would not have taken many voters to vote differently for the situation to be reversed. Since then boundary changes removed the best Tory areas of Test so that Labour would have had a larger notional majority in Test in 1992 than in Itchen and the new boundaries again make Itchen slightly better for the Tories and Test somewhat better for Labour, therefore such an outcome now is entirely possible.
The gap between Test and Itchen has been deminishing.
1955 it was 3000 Tory in Test to 6000 Lab in Itchen
1959 it was 6000 Tory in Test to 3000 Lab in Itchen
1992 it was 500 Tory in Test to 500 Lab in Itchen
The demographics might also explain why the swing to the Conservatives has been greater in Itchen:
White
Itchen 95.2%
Test 90.3%
Students
Itchen 8.8%
Test 13.9%
Graduates
Itchen 13.5%
Test 21.8%
Owner Occupied
Itchen 60.4%
Test 54.8%
Electoral Calculus currently has Labour 6.63% ahead here, and 4.21% ahead in Southampton Test. I know some of you don’t like me quoting Electoral Calculus – its predictions certainly do have limitations. But it does reflect the likelihood that the recent swing back to the Government will save Labour the Southampton seats, which, as I posted at the relevant time, could easily have been lost if the election had been held earlier. Of course, things have not recovered sufficiently for Labour for them to be certainties.
Interesting recent comments about Labour organisation. They have two effective MPs in Southampton and I think it likely they could campaign and leaflet enough locally to offset a national Tory propaganda barrage using the Conservative’s greater financial resources.
For what it’s worth I live in this constitutency and have seen much, muchn more Tories than Labour. I’ve seen more of the Lib Dems for that matter and they’ve got no hope.