Somerton and Frome
2010 Results:
Conservative: 26976 (44.51%)
Labour: 2675 (4.41%)
Liberal Democrat: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.19%)
Others: 236 (0.39%)
Majority: 1817 (2.99%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 23831 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 23792 (43.2%)
Labour: 5809 (10.6%)
Other: 1602 (2.9%)
Majority: 39 (0.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22947 (42.4%)
Labour: 5865 (10.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 23759 (43.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (1.9%)
Other: 484 (0.9%)
Majority: 812 (1.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22315 (42.4%)
Labour: 6113 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22983 (43.6%)
UKIP: 919 (1.7%)
Other: 354 (0.7%)
Majority: 668 (1.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22554 (39.3%)
Labour: 9385 (16.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 22684 (39.5%)
Referendum: 2449 (4.3%)
Other: 331 (0.6%)
Majority: 130 (0.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: /p>
Current MP: David Heath(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Annunziata Rees-Mogg (Conservative) David Oakensen (Labour) David Heath(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Barry Harding (UKIP)Niall Warry (Independent Leave the EU Alliance)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96719
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 4.5%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.9%
Social Housing: 12.2% (Council: 5.1%, Housing Ass.: 7.2%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.9%
Simon Hughes is just trying to keep is seat. Whether or not the Lib Dems and Tories have an electoral pact will in the end not be his decision.
UKIP get their voters from all over the place, which is why Joseph Brayson’s argument that they cost the Tories a majority on the Witney thread is so weak. Many UKIP voters wouldn’t dream of ever voting Tory, including my mother in the Labour stronghold of Ashfield.
I’m suprised that last boundary commission didn’t increase the number of Somerset seats. At the moment the average electorate for a Somerset seat is about 80,000, but with 6 seats that would be reduced to about 72,000.
In the next boundary review, Somerset will probably be one of the rew palces in the country to see an increase in the number of seats.
I don’t really understand what Jacob Rees-Mogg is getting at when he says that maybe there should be only one Coalition candidate in a seat like this at the next election because surely with 4.4% of the vote Labour wouldn’t be able to win it under any circumstances. It’s in seats where Labour is a serious challenger to either the Conservatives or LDs that one of them would stand down if there was some kind of pact.
It’s a strange idea, given that the Tories have a chance of a clean sweep of Somerset.
It’ll be very interesting to see whether tactical unwind occurs or not in Somerset.
Yes. Common sense tells us that if people have been voting Lib Dem because they think Labour can’t win, some of them have to defect to Labour.
How many, we don’t know.
I think the LDs best hope is to demonstrate they have got something out of the coalition that is relevant to voters (not just cranky things like PR/AV).
There is an interesting poll out today
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/605/Liberal-Democrat-support-dropping-dramatically-in-some-regions.aspx
What’s interesting is that support seems to have utterly plummeted in NE and SW england + London but Wales and Scotland are better for them.
Tory vote is around 4.3% up on 1997,
meaning it is probably less than 6% down on 1992 – about the same as the national drop.
However, the Tories lost around 6% in 1992,
so it will be about 12% below 1987 and 10% below 1983.
I can’t possibly see the Tories pulling their puches here even if the leadership told them to. I fail too see how the Lib Dems would hold on here. David Heath may have voted against the tuition fees rise, but that will probably not save him. Then again, it is rather early to be making General Election predictions.
‘David Heath may have voted against the tuition fees rise’
He actually voted for the rise but I doubt that’ll make much difference either way here anyway.
Definitely too early to predict what will happen in the southwest.
This seat will be radically different. Far too early to make any predictions as to who will or not hold on.
I imagine David Heath will stand against J R M in the redrawn Frome and Norton Radstock seat where the tories were only around 2000 votes ahead of the LDs at the local elections so that is still competitive.
Tessa Munt may stand in Glastonbury and Wincanton seat but it doesn’t look very promising for the LDs as the corresponding results were roughly:
Con 45
LD 32
Ind 9.6
Grn 6.6
Lab 6.6
UKIP 0.6
‘Tessa Munt may stand in Glastonbury and Wincanton seat but it doesn’t look very promising for the LDs as the corresponding results were roughly:
Con 45
LD 32
Ind 9.6
Grn 6.6
Lab 6.6
UKIP 0.6′
not so – Glastonbury & Wincanton is a Lib Dem held seat – by about 5000 votes or so – giving them a healthier majority there than they currently enjoy in Somerton & Frome
Surely this is the seat David Heath will stand for, leaving Tessa Munt in Wells (which she seems destined to lose)
Steve Webb has seen his safe(ish) seat disappear in the boundary changes – maybe he could go up against the reactionary JRM in the new Somerset North East seat
No Tim, you misunderstood me, I was referring to the local election results for G&W which I aggregated.
The notional (UKPR) LD majority is only 2379 in Glastonbury and Wincanton and 1718 in the redrawn NE Somerset seat but I would argue that things look more positive/less bad for the LDs in the latter seat.
I have a hunch that Thornbury and Yate will be put back together in the review anyway so not sure why you brought Steve Webb in to it (Even in the worst case scenario he would fight Yate and maybe have a chance).
This is of course only my opinion but I think Tessa Munt may prove to be a bit left-wing for this part of the country and may struggle to hold whichever seat she stands for.
‘This is of course only my opinion but I think Tessa Munt may prove to be a bit left-wing for this part of the country and may struggle to hold whichever seat she stands for.’
Exactly, Andy. I would certainly say that David Heath still has a far better chance of remaining an MP than Tessa Munt as she was probably more reliant on protest votes.
‘No Tim, you misunderstood me, I was referring to the local election results for G&W which I aggregated.’
I see – although I do question how much we can read into the local election results – given how low turn out is in comparison to general elections
I though the Lib Dems had a 5,000 or so majority in the newly drawn seat
Either way, it will be a tough ask for them to hol;d the seat and I certainly agree with you and Andy in that David Heath would have a far better chance at holding the seat than Tessa Munt, who seems very left wing, even for a Lib Dem
Labour won Frome in 1929:
Lab 18,524
Con 16,378
Lib 5,774
Yes indeed and also in 1923 and of course 1945. It mostly consisted of the area now covered by Wansdyke/NE Somerset. The proposed new NE Somerset which will include Frome town will almost re-create that seat and will be similarly a potential three way marginal (there are rather more potential Labour votes in Frome than recent results would indicate)
Is this the constituency with the smallest combined majorities from 1997 to 2010?
I think it certainly has had the smallest average majority over those 4 elections.
Prediction for 2015-
Tory- 25, 637 (42.8%, -1.71%)
Heath (Lib Dem)- 25, 276 (42.2%, -5.3%)
Lab- 5, 754 (9.6%, +5.2%)
UKIP- 2, 536 (4.2%, +1.01%)
Others- 563 (0.9%, +0.51%)
Con gain.
Turnout- 59, 766.
Majority- 361 (0.6%)
Swing- +1.795% From Lib Dem to Con.
The first tranche of target seats from the Conservatives in 2013…..include some seats they’ve already called for, which tells its own story I think
Anyway, the ten seats in the latest update (including some they’ve already mentioned) are
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton West
Brecon and Radnorshire
Chippenham
Chorley
Eastbourne
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Morley and Outwood
North Devon
Somerton and Frome
Telford
Torbay
Vale of Clwyd