Somerset North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21130 (41.27%)
Labour: 16216 (31.67%)
Liberal Democrat: 11433 (22.33%)
UKIP: 1754 (3.43%)
Green: 670 (1.31%)
Majority: 4914 (9.6%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 16229 (38.5%)
Labour: 15995 (37.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8618 (20.4%)
Other: 1346 (3.2%)
Majority: 234 (0.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18847 (37%)
Labour: 20686 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 10050 (19.7%)
UKIP: 1129 (2.2%)
Other: 221 (0.4%)
Majority: 1839 (3.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17593 (35.9%)
Labour: 22706 (46.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7135 (14.5%)
UKIP: 655 (1.3%)
Green: 958 (2%)
Majority: 5113 (10.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19318 (35.3%)
Labour: 24117 (44.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9205 (16.8%)
Referendum: 1327 (2.4%)
Other: 755 (1.4%)
Majority: 4799 (8.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Conservative)
Jacob Rees-Mogg (Conservative) Dan Norris(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Gail Coleshill (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Stockport High School and Huddersfield Polytechnic. South Somerset councillor 1987-1999. BNES Councillor since 2003. Contested Wansdyke 2005, 2001.Michael Jay (Green) Supplier and manufacturer of beekeeping equipment.Peter Sandell (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85048
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 23.5%
Born outside UK: 3.8%
White: 98.6%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 76.1%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 20.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.8%
Owner-Occupied: 80.8%
Social Housing: 10.9% (Council: 3.5%, Housing Ass.: 7.4%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
JRM will have reason for sobriety given the proposed constituency changes: these go some way to recreating the 1918-1950 Frome seat that swung Labour’s way in good years for the parryy. The industrial character of the seat has diminished since then, but Dan Norris’ decent base, plus Labour potential in Frome, could give Labour enough of a boost to win the seat with a moderate pro-Labour swing. A lot will depend on how seriously the LDs take the new seat if it comes about.
Bit confusing that they’ve chosen the same name for the proposed constituency since it doesn’t resemble the current seat very much in electoral terms.
It’s notionally a LD seat of course because of their strength in Frome and to an extent Shepton Mallet. As Tangent says Labour would have a potential in these areas which has been concealed by tactical voting. I think I mooted before, here or elsewhere, the possibility of a three way battle between Rees-Mogg, Heath and Norris. I think more of Rees-Moggs seat would be in Kingswood and Keynsham and more of Heath’s in Glastonbury & Wincanton
I do rather like the new NE Somerset seat and its very similar to the one I drew up in this area when playing around with possible boundary changes. I do wish that they would call the seat Frome though
Looks like another potential 3-way marginal
I thought Glastonbury & Wincanton was more of a successor seat to Wells than Somerton &Frome
Is there anywhere we can see these proposed constituencies on a map?
Tangent – where have you been all this time? It’s great to have you back.
We’ve missed you on the south London threads in particular.
Tim – htt p://rr-bce-static.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/A0-South-West-Region-Initial-Proposals.pdf?9d7bd4
Somewhere there is a breakdown of what proportion of old seats are in new seats and vice versa.
I agree with HH its good to see Tangent posting again
Those breakdowns here Tim, for the South West htt p://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/13_09_11_south_west.pdf
And other regions htt p://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14899026
Nice one Pete – I thought you might be the man to know
Thanks, HH and Pete.
Various projects have eaten up my time outside work – but these new boundaries are too fascinating to resist!
The proposed North East Somerset is taken just 44% from the existing seat (Radstock & Midsomer Norton), 41% from Somerton & Frome and 15% from Wells. It is unlikely to change significantly from consultation as there has to be a cross county seat and this is the only practical place to put it.
Will Heath choose to fight here (it will show as Liberal on the notionals) and leave the Wells MP to fight Glastonbury & Wincanton, or will Heath compete for the latter seat, forcing Munt into the much less promising revised Wells?
Oh well if we lose we will get to get rid of the frankly embrassing Rees-Mogg
I did think Heath would stand in G&W but given that his const office is in Frome it might make more sense to stand in the revised NE Somerset, if the notionals are accurate.
The LD vote also held up in the B&NE Somerset part of the seat in the local elections (where the LDs gained a couple of seats in Clutton and Radstock)) although Labour did not stand candidates in Clutton and Bathavon West.
Although having checked again Clutton isn’t included.
I think the tories were about 2000 ahead of the LDs in this proposed revised seat in the local elections.
In what way is Rees-Mogg embarrassing?
His lack of natural empathy – well more just understanding of the lives of normal people – - heck I think that and I went to a private school and Oxford, so god knows what many other people think
That combined with views seemingly coming from about 1500 means that Id rather a more “modern” candidate. We have a REAL problem with appearing to be the party of the privileged classes, and are doing well in WWC areas despite this – I think our potential with a much more rounded candidate base would be fulfilled.
The idea of Annuziata next door being helped into the candidature based her on gender is an absolute joke – she has had more privilege that basically anybody – we just need some more normal people, 1 or 2 etonians is fine. 10% of the parliamentary party is just toxic, it really is.
A very quick point – when I first read the comments on this seat (in particular the rather negative view of JRM) I was inclined to agree.
But….I’ve seen him on Question Time, the Daily Politics, and on BBC parliament a few times and, whilst undoubtedly aristocratic and eccentric, I’ve been impressed with many of his answers – he seems rational, logical and calm, and I’ve found myself agreeing with much of what he says.
The reason for posting tonight was that I was watching BBC Parliament a few minutes ago (yes, I know, I should have better things to do on a Friday night…….!) and watched Paul Flynn being interviewed. When asked to nominate a potential star from the Conservative 2010 intake, he referred to JRM as a potential ‘star’….
Perhaps he was being tongue in cheek but I didn’t get that impression.
This, combined with my impression of JRM’s recent appearances, made me wonder whether I (and maybe some others) were perhaps slightly guilty of inverse snobbery……I’ve got a feeling he may not be the hinderance to the Tories that he may have initially appeared?
I think JRM is doing well – agree with Chris K.
He makes logical and well thought out contributions, and is quite humerous.
The earlier comments on this thread basically reflect unthinking and rather cowardly blowing in the wind, following those who attack those who are different.
But one has to rise above that, particularly in politics.
I doubt there’s much genuine inverted snobbery in the comments – anyway, what’s wrong with speaking properly and being properly educated,
as opposed to being a “celeb” out of vandalising the English language, which for some reason doesn’t attract the criticism of those charged with the difficult task of turning around a bank.
I was rather negative earlier. Its definitely not inverted snobbery – although not as posh as JRM i went to a public school and oxford.
I perhaps spoke too soon – for now im keeping an open mind on him, cant quite make out whether he is eloquent and intelligent or just a buffoon.
I like Rees- Mogg. He does not try to be anything he is not, which is refreshing. His contributions are intelligent, lucid and often witty. It is good to see that rhetoric hasn’t died completely.
Somewhat to my surprise I’ve been impressed by JRM.
There should, and needs to be, a place in parliament for people from all different backgrounds.
What is a mystery though is how Olly Letwin has been allowed to flutter around the Conservative higher echelons for over a decade, causing mishaps and disasters on a regular basis.
I’m not sure what you mean by that last statement Richard.
He has made some good and intelligent contributions to Conservative policy since the 1980s, and he beat the Lib Dems.
Joe, I wasn’t really thinking of your comments, but some much earlier comments on the thread etched in the memory.
I agree with a lot of other things you say.
“He has made some good and intelligent contributions to Conservative policy since the 1980s”
Such as?
“and he beat the Lib Dems.”
His personal results have not been impressive.
Shaun – you should see the opinion poll threads which the same group of lefties use every night to write bile about the Tories and
produce all kinds of “statistics” to show why any poll with a Tory lead is an outlier, and any poll with a Labour lead must be right.
‘His personal results have not been impressive.’
I’m of the opinion that had it not been for Letwin the Lib Dems would have taken West Dorset by now
Apart from 2001, he has steadily increased his majority at every subsequent election and whilst West Dorset has had a long Conservative tradition (I don’t think the Tories have ever lost the seat) it is exactly the type of seat the Lib Dems did well in 1997-2005
He’s intelligent, and whilst probably not the most competent, he is likeable – unlike many on the Tory Right – and recognised that the Tories had to change if they wanted to govern again long before David Camneron did
Very eloquent speech from Rees-Mogg-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=anb7BKIujtI
He is totally ridiculous.
”He is totally ridiculous.”
He does appear to be the stereotypical Conservative MP yes. Whether or not that makes him ridiculous is another thing.
The truth is of course that a lot of people are rather grumpy about the fact that Jacob Rees-Mogg got elected in the first place.
And they can’t stand the idea that as an MP this rather traditional, fine, eloquant Tory is actually proving to be doing quite well.
So what would we prefer then? Another Louise Bagshaw or a Joanne Cash in his place?
Do me a favour!
His seat is actually rather marginal. If Dan Norris was to be re-adopted as the Labour candidate it could be quite close; otherwise there’s no saying Labour could take North East Somerset back easily.
The LDs held up well in some of the southern parts of this constituency in the May 2011 local elections.
I have to say I’ve warmed to Jacob Rees-Mogg.
He seems to have a Boris quality of making a virtue of his background.
He has made some superb contributions to debates recently and comes across surprisingly well, including his appearance on Newsnight last week arguing about whether benefits should be frozen.
Seconded, he has done very well indeed and one cant help but feel fondly for him.
Southstoke, Freshford, and Bathampton all in this seat were in Bath from 1997 to 2010 but I don’t know which seats they were in before then (I do know Bathampton was in Frome until 1950 tho)
Southstoke, Freshford, and Bathampton (all in this seat) were in Bath from 1997 to 2010 but I don’t know which seats they were in before then (I do know Bathampton was in Frome until 1950)