1,046 Responses to “Solihull”

1. Birmingham Bob

   The Conservative literature from the beginning of the campaign started making personal attacks against the young Lib Dem candidate now elected Councillor. They also made a number of accusations against the Lib Dems that were untrue in fact. One small example was claiming that all the Conservative councillors on the planning committee had all voted against a planning application made by gypsies.
   Conservative central office sent Eric Pickles down on election day to support and congratulate the Conservative activists on the huge amount of work carried out. I do not think the Conservatives could have done any more or spent any more money.
   I agree with others that this is all normal for a by election from the Conservatives, the Residents Association and the Lib Dems. I did not see any literature from Labour.

   January 22nd, 2011 at 12:17 am
2. Monty

   I suspect the LDs were possibly referring to the constant criticisms coming from the Tories about where the LD candidate lived. I seriously doubt the Tories are as blameless in this as they are trying to make out. Further, as someone has said, the leaflet may have even been counterproductive on two levels:
   1) Some may have thought it a little too negative
   2) The title of the leaflet actually made it look like a Tory apology which may have got the Tories votes.

   Personally I think challenging the result would be a waste of the Tories time and money anyway. They would be unliklely to win such a case as the claims on the leaflets are subjective and open to interpretation.

   Further it is unlikely they would win any subsequent by-election in this ward, especially if it was held on the same day as the local elections. As someone has already said, the LDs may well be screwed in the locals in May anyway as they are in some wards heavily reliant upon Labour tactical voting. Looking at the vote shares this appears to have even been a problem for the LDs in this by-election with the Labour vote up 4%. Without an increase in the Labour vote share the LDs would probably have taken this by a majority of maybe up to 100. This will be a massive issue for them in the forthcoming locals. Especially when we consider Labour did not appear to do anything at all in Olton.

   I think the Tories will make at least 2 gains from the LDs in May and maybe up to 4 or even 5. So from their point of view it doesnt seem worth the hassle and money to contest the result.

   January 22nd, 2011 at 12:40 pm
3. Henry

   As Monty puts it ‘Personally I think challenging the result would be a waste of the Tories time and money’

   The tories are likely to take 4 or 5 of the LD seats.

   However, it is time that all political parties and their candidates were punished for the very unethical material produced.

   It would have been far more effective on future standards if a Labour candidate had not been allowed to stand in the Old and Sad by-election, because Labour was not punished at all.

   I think that generally the public are let down by the very poor standards of ethics in campaigning. However, in this local byelection the Tories may argue that residents should know if a candidate is not local; I am not sure how the Lib Dems can justify sending out literature claiming to be their opponents.

   It could be argued if we rejected all candidates whose literature misled the public few of the current MPs would be in the House. However, would that be a bad thing?

   January 23rd, 2011 at 4:52 pm
4. Silhillian

   It is interesting to note that the Tory vote in the Olton by-election, at 1179, is very similar to the vote they polled when this seat was last contested in 2008, when they polled 1198. The key difference is that Liberal Democrats did not turn out to vote in anywhere near as high numbers, and I think dissatisfaction with the national coalition is the major reason for this.

   The Lib Dems will struggle to keep control of Solihull Council in May if their past vote similarly stays away, but they need to make clear through the campaign that the Council will revert to Tory control if people do not vote or vote for Labour or a smaller party out of protest.

   The Lib Dem leaflet in Olton is not an issue as far as I am concerned, and rebutted the nasty attacks made by the Conservatives against the Lib Dem candidate for living outside the borough, and also unjustified attacks on the local Lib-Lab coalition’s record of running the Council.

   I have copies of the Tory leaflets, which link planning decisions to the political administration of the Council, when this is not even an executive function, and say that one decision has risked the council tax payer ‘massive costs’ when this risk is run every time an application is turned down against officer advice. They also criticise a consultation process on new housing and commerical development options, saying that they are plans to ‘surrender precious Green Belt land for commercial development and acres of countryside for thousands more homes’. Finally, they moan about the creation of an extra Cabinet post, even though this new portfolio gives a specific focus to the environment and is delivering £2.5 million of savings in the 2011-12 budget, far exceeding the 10% budget saving the Council has to make.

   If this is not cheap point scoring for political purposes I do not know what is. I know that it is frustrating to lose elections but this is no Oldham East and Saddleworth.

   January 23rd, 2011 at 8:48 pm
5. Henry

   Silhillian

   You are right to criticise Tories for misleading the public on Council matters.

   If I understand rightly the Lib Dems sent out a leaflet appearing to be from the Tories … if this is the case then I hope you would agree that it is misleading and damages the public’s view of politicians and should stop. If it is not true then I have misunderstood other postings.

   your comments ‘rebutted the nasty attacks made by the Conservatives against the Lib Dem candidate for living outside the borough …’.

   Again, he impression gained from other postings is that the candidate did live outside the Borough. If this is incorrect it is of course very misleading. However, as a Silhillian, not tied to a party, I would like to know which candidates are local and which are not and it would probably affect the way I voted.

   January 24th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
6. Pete Whitehead

   The candidate lives in Walsall so i’m not sure how that fact was ‘rebutted’. As to the other stuff mentioned by Silhillian, why is criticising decisions made by the council ‘scoring cheap political points’?

   January 24th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
7. Henry

   Pete Whitehead

   ‘The candidate lives in Walsall so i’m not sure how that fact was ‘rebutted’. As to the other stuff mentioned by Silhillian, why is criticising decisions made by the council ‘scoring cheap political points’?’

   I agree that criticising the ruling party for actions the Council has taken appears reasonable. However for LDs to issue a blue supposedly tory leaflet apologising for its policies is a trifle dishonest.

   If the candidate was from Walsall, then I do not understand why the Tories were criticised for pointing this out. Perhaps Silhillian could explain why LDs could not find a suitable candidate from within the Borough if not Olton.

   January 24th, 2011 at 6:29 pm
8. Monty

   I think one of the Tory leaflets did have a technical inaccuracy in regards to one of their claims over a planning issue. I think they claimed that all the Tory members on a certain issue voted against something, when in reality that did not happen. In that sense, if it is true which I think it is, they were guilty not telling the truth. I suspect the issue may have been to do with gypsys or housing which seem to be the hobby horses for the Tories locally.

   From what I saw the Tory campaign was generally quite negative anyway focusing on gypsy’s and travellers in many places, and criticising the Council for their statutory duties to actually provide for them. In this sense I suppose the LDs thought it fair game to have a go back. Of course on such issues the Tories are probably just singing to the choir anyway, although they did seem to get their vote out.

   The reality is when Council control is so marginal these sorts of things will happen, the public are not stupid and can make their own minds up based on what is presented.

   Of course if such a matter did get to court, which it wouldnt as there was not really any wrongdoing, it would be quite comical in the sense that Cameron and Clegg are in coalition. Labour would have a field day talking about splits, so I seriously doubt on any level the Tories nationally would want any case. It may also just appear like sour grapes and being unable to accept an election result.

   January 24th, 2011 at 8:04 pm
9. Joe James B

   A leaflet that is deliberately meant to look like another party’s leaflet is a deliberate attempt to mislead the electorate,
   no huffing and puffing can alter that.

   January 25th, 2011 at 1:46 am
10. Silhillian

    It is correct that Councillor O’Kane currently lives in Walsall but she works in Olton and has done for 5 years. I understand that she is moving to Olton later this year and has obviously committed herself, as a borough councillor, to serving the area.

    As for the colour of leaflets, I can reveal that the Tories put out a letter on yellow in the last few days of the campaign, before the last minute Lib Dem leaflet on blue paper appeared. I can also reveal that in 2005 in the St Alphege by-election, the Tories issued a leaflet in Lib Dem yellow making the party sound truly awful. I think those in the Tory party who feel agrieved by the democratic result in Olton should direct their energy at something more meanigful – the electorate does not like hearing sour grapes from politicians who fairly and squarely have lost.

    January 25th, 2011 at 11:15 am
11. Henry

    Silhillian

    ‘I can also reveal that in 2005 in the St Alphege by-election, the Tories issued a leaflet in Lib Dem yellow making the party sound truly awful. I think those in the Tory party who feel agrieved by the democratic result in Olton should direct their energy at something more meanigful’.

    Not all those who criticise the ethics of politicians in this or any election are Tories. To suggest it is is ducking the issue.

    Are you commending or condemning the Tories for issuing yellow lib dem leaflets? Are you saying that because the Tories do it, then that’s ok or are you saying it is wrong for the Tories to do it but ok for the Lib Dems? All seems very cynical to me.

    January 25th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
12. Monty

    Most of this to me in reality seems like all sides are trying to claim some self righteous moral high ground. When Council balance is so close these things are inevtiable as the stakes for both parties involved is very high.

    Personally I would prefer it if all campaigns were purely on policy and all these personal attacks and tricks were consigned to the dustbin. Unfortunately though we seem to live in an environment where negative campaigning is the norm for all sides.

    This campaign may have also got more personal as both the two main competitors are in coalition nationally and therefore found it almost impossible to articulate a different genuine messagefrom each other.

    January 25th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
13. Silhillian

    Henry, I expect all campaigns when things are so tight to be robust and I trust the electorate to make up their own minds.

    January 26th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
14. A Brown

    ‘A leaflet that is deliberately meant to look like another party’s leaflet is a deliberate attempt to mislead the electorate,
    no huffing and puffing can alter that.’

    The lib dems also tried this tactic in Edinburgh South with a ‘hand written note’ on blue paper, I thought it was reasonably subtle at the time. This was clearly more spurious though.

    January 26th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
15. Monty

    If memory serves me correctly the Tories in Solihull have used eaxctly the same tactic sending out more or less the same type of letter on yellow paper.

    January 26th, 2011 at 8:28 pm
16. Henry

    Monty

    This campaign may have also got more personal as both the two main competitors are in coalition nationally and therefore found it almost impossible to articulate a different genuine message from each other.

    Possibly, however there is also a Lib/Lab coalition in local government. At a time of cuts this makes the Lib Dem position difficult as both the Government and local Council appear unpopular, even though some would argue both are doing a good job following on from a poor Tory Council and a Labour Govt that bankrupted the country. This may put into perspective what appears a very poor result for the LDs.

    However life is not fair, and Lib Dems are set to lose a significant amount of their seats in May; although Lyndon should be safe.

    This does not justify the recent Lib Dem campaign or their general recent campaigning. It is a pity as a number of their current Councillors, are well established and popular locally and have a record and reputation for hard work, honesty and integrity, and I suspect would not subscribe to the current tactics.

    I could be wrong.

    January 31st, 2011 at 11:17 pm
17. Barnaby Marder

    So the Lib Dems issued a leaflet on Tory blue, and the Tories previously one on Lib Dem yellow.
    “Tu quoque” is not a good defence either in law or morally. They’re both wrong and an attempt to mislead the electorate. It is very likely that this one altered the result. It is politician’s work to inform and serve the electorate, not to mislead it in this way.

    February 6th, 2011 at 8:32 pm
18. Birmingham Bob

    Solihull Lib Dems paid a high price for helping the Tories to form a stable government at Westminster. The Conservatives took control of Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council after enough electors took back their Labour votes that had been previously “borrowed” by the Lib Dems. At the announcement of the results, which included five Lib Dem losses to the Conservatives, the Tory leader Councillor Ken Messon decided that it was the right time to tell the assembled company what the Conservatives really think about the Liberal Democrats. It was a strange speech and presumably aimed at the two local MPs, Caroline Spelman (Conservative) and Lorely Burt (Liberal Democrat), who were present at the count.

    May 7th, 2011 at 10:15 pm
19. Monty

    Interesting analysis. But you should also remember that it was not just the LD vote going down at the expense of the Tory vote. The Tory vote was also up in all the wards they won of the Lib Dems. I wonder if the LDs were being kicked from both sides. Nationally for being with the Tories and locally for being in with Labour. I guess that is the problem when a party is winning by borrowing votes from both the left and right.

    May 7th, 2011 at 11:53 pm
20. Joe James B

    Looking through the results here, by ward,
    I’d have thought the LDs must be very worried by these results.
    This is clearly the best Conservative result here for a long time,
    and they’ve come back strongly in the three Shirley divisions.

    May 15th, 2011 at 12:41 am
21. Lancs Observer

    The Ind LD Cllr here has defected to the Greens, giving them a Group of 4.

    May 15th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
22. Joe James B

    Pete, if you’ve got the figures, I’d be interested to see the local election totals for Solihull and Meriden Parliamentary seats, please – May 2011.

    Scanning the wards, it looks like there was a decisive change in Solihull this year.

    June 18th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
23. Pete Whitehead

    Meriden

    Con 17297 54.0%
    Lab 6465 20.2%
    Grn 3820 11.9%
    SMRA 1979 6.2%
    LD 1934 6.0%
    ED 370 1.2%
    BNP 161 0.5%

    Solihull

    Con 14805 43.1%
    LD 11046 32.2%
    Lab 4608 13.4%
    SMRA 1749 5.1%
    Grn 1152 3.4%
    UKIP 447 1.3%
    ED 376 1.1%
    BNP 144 0.4%

    The LDs were about 2,000 ahead in the Solihull constituency in the 2010 locals. Overall in the borough, the LDs were down 11% since 2010 and the Conservatives up around 7%

    June 18th, 2011 at 10:44 pm
24. richard

    The curious thing being the swing of LibD to Con rather than LibD to Lab as tactical voting unwound.

    The net effort locally being much the same but much more worrying for the LibDems at parliamentary level.

    It begins to look like that Labour has so totally collapsed in much of the country that it will never recover. Similar to the way that the Conservatives were never able to recover in many urban areas after 1997.

    June 18th, 2011 at 10:51 pm
25. Joe James B

    Thanks for these figures.

    Well, the swing from the General Election is actually LD to Labour, potentially handing the Tories the seat,
    but as Richard and Pete says, the LDs did better in the 2010 local elections (and the Tories worse) compared to the General Election, so if that differential still exists, then the Tories might be a bit further ahead.
    I still think this might be quite a hard nut to crack but it’s an obvious target for Cons should they be in a good position next time (which they may or may not).

    June 18th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
26. John Chanin

    Note that Lorely Burt would gain from the inclusion of Sheldon in this seat – it was 1 of only 3 seats in Birmingham held by the LDs in last year’s locals, and was by far the safest.

    October 25th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
27. Joe James B

    I wonder what the prospects are here.
    Not many posts on this seat these days.

    January 22nd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
28. akmd

    I think the Tories will win this one back easily. There are other Lib Dem held seats where your party faces a much more difficult challenge but this is definitely not one of them. I will be astounded if they don’t gain it.

    January 22nd, 2012 at 5:16 pm
29. A Cairns

    Agreed, the swing to the tories here at last years locals was decisive unlike other suburban seats such as Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Southport and Cheadle where the tories were struggling to properly capitalise on the LDs’ woes.

    January 22nd, 2012 at 5:34 pm
30. Tory

    A Cairns: I agree about Solihull. As for the other seats, it is early days. As you say, 2011 wasn’t decisive but the Lib Dems are somewhat on the back foot now in places like Cheadle and Hazel Grove. The extent of LD-Lab unwind will probably decide matters in 2015.

    January 22nd, 2012 at 7:27 pm
31. Joe James B

    Interesting one this.
    It did look for some time after 2005 that the Lib Dems could convert this into a safer seat, and although they failed to do that, with the Tories upping their game from 2008, the LDs did hold on.

    Now, however, people seem to think this is a seat the Tories will gain without not much difficulty.

    What can account for this change, if it comes about, apart from the national swing?

    January 23rd, 2012 at 1:44 am
32. Shaun Bennett

    I was quite dissapointed by the result here at the general election because of course as people will know, I confidently predicted a Tory re-gain. I never imagined the Lib dems would turn it into a safe seat though.

    But I do agree with Joe. Loreley Burt should get her comeuppance next time. Depending on the majority, its possible it may even return to its former status as a safe Tory seat.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 8:18 am
33. A Cairns

    Yes, I can envisage a Tory majority of 6-7000 in 2015.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 8:32 am
34. Joe James B

    Sometimes the Tories have gone into shell shock after losing a seat, however narrowly and however safe it recently was.

    The 2010 result was obviously bad for them in the historical context of the seat, but they did avoid the first scenario.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 10:28 am
35. Tom Robinson

    I would say there is negligible chance of the LibDems holding this seat in 2015.

    The disgust of former Labour voters who supported the LibDems to keep the Tories out of power is enough to give victory to the Tories.

    There are also plenty of LibDem voters who now believe that their party was politically inept in failing to obtain a referendum on genuine PR-one on AV was worse than useless.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 11:06 am
36. H.Hemmelig

    Mathematically, it has to be the case that there are some former Tory voters voting Lib Dem here, given that the Tory vote went from 45% in 1997/2001 to 42% in 2010, contradicting the national swing.

    Pete’s post above about the local election results in Solihull suggests this also.

    As well as the degree of tactical unwind back to Labour, the extent to which former Tories go back to their former home will also be an important and less predictable factor.

    I agree it’s unlikely the Lib Dems will be able to hold this.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 11:25 am
37. Adam

    The tories should count themselves lucky that the Lib Dem’s havent turned this into a Westmorland and Lonsdale types seat, going from being safe tory to safe Lib Dem in less than 15 years.

    I think theres about an 80% chance of a Conservative gain here in 2015, even on the new boundaries. But don’t expect it to be more than 5,000.

    The Lib Dem’s only hope here is to try and stop votes going back to Labour by reminding people that Labour are no-hopers in this seat. And even then, the Lib Dems should still see it as a job well done if they hold the tory majority down to less than 2,000, because the chances of them actually holding the seat are minimul.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 12:48 pm
38. Joe James B

    The Lib Dem vote is a miscellaneous group.
    A large part of it hates the Tories, is probably to the left of Labour but doesn’t like calling itself Labour for various reasons best known to them.

    But the Tories do seem to have managed to build bridges with another group of Lib Dem voters – a smaller group though than the first.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 12:59 pm
39. Lollipop

    It will be tough for the LDs to hold on here. The 2011 local highlighted how much of the previous LD vote was made up of Labour people voting tactically. The Tories made sweeping gains without massively increasing their vote shares as the Labour vote increased. One only needs to look at Shirley. Here the LDs were possibly doubly punished, one for going in with the Tories nationally, upsetting the Lab/LD voters, but also upset the Con/LD voters by going in wih Labour locally. This merely highlighted the conumdrum the LDs face nationally, that half their voters are Labour sympathisers and the other half Tory ones.

    Even if the coundaies change to bring in Sheldon , a supposed LD stronghold I am not convinced it will be enough for the LDs to hold on unless their polling increases dramatically. I suspect Sheldon will have enougn Lab sympathisers who voted LD tactically to put a spanner in the works for the LDs. Also the Yardley constiuency, even in the LD heyday, always voted much stronger for the LDs locally than they did nationally.

    Overall though as far as the Solihull Council seats are concerned the Tories may well really clean up as they did last year as the centre left vote fractures.

    January 23rd, 2012 at 5:41 pm
40. Joe James B

    May 2012

    Solihull
    Con hold

    April 13th, 2012 at 10:46 pm
41. Andy JS

    Will the LDs be reduced to their three safest wards again this year? Maybe even those might not be safe if they have a really bad night.

    April 15th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
42. Birmingham Bob

    It is most unlikely that the Conservatives will buck the national trend in Solihull. Two of the eight wards in the Solihull Constituency are safe for the Conservatives. A fierce battle is under way in Conservative held Shirley South and also in Lib Dem held Olton. Shirley West is a three way fight between Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. The Green candidate is the sitting Councillor. Shirley East is a three way fight between Conservatives, Lib Dems and Independent Ratepayer. The Lib Dem candidate is the sitting Councillor and the Independent Ratepayer candidate is a previous Conservative Councillor for the ward. Possible result: three Conservatives, four Lib Dems and one Green.

    April 21st, 2012 at 12:57 pm
43. Pete Whitehead

    Can’t really see the Green holding Shirley West – they got less than 5% last year and I can’t see the sitting councillor having that much of a personal vote. most likely they’ll do enough to split the LD vote and let the Conservatives in.
    Elmdon would be vulnerable if there was any kind of tactical unwind by Labour supporters, but no sign of that last year, and in Olton the woman who lives in Walsall who almost lost the seat in a by-election is up for re-election so that could be close again

    April 21st, 2012 at 2:11 pm
44. swanarcadian

    Aggregate votes for the Solihull constituency, May 2012

    C 9,564 39.0%
    LD 8,078 33.0%
    Lab 3,397 13.9%
    Green 1,744 7.1%
    Eng Dem 771 3.1%
    Ind R 715 2.9%
    Ind R & RA 243 1.0%

    May 4th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
45. Birmingham Bob

    The aggregate votes information is very interesting. I presume that using the proposed new boundaries by adding the Sheldon Ward from Birmingham and taking out Shirley South Ward and Shirley West Ward, would put the Lib Dems at the top of the list.
    In the detail of the results, the Green retained Shirley West while in Olton Ward “the woman from Walsall” became the “lady from Olton” with a resounding victory for the Lib Dems against a full Conservative campaign. The ever popular Conservative Councillor Gary Allport survived a Lib Dem onslaught in Shirley South by a slim margin. The Lib Dem votes were solid in Elmdon Ward but not in Shirley East where the Conservatives took the seat.

    May 5th, 2012 at 8:31 am
46. Henry

    With the boundary changes now in doubt MP Burt could be in serious trouble; Shirley West/South has been neglected by the Party and the Councillors in that area sidelined and ignored, I assume on the basis that it would no longer form part of the Solihull Constituency; three activists/councillors have joined the greens, one labour; one went independent.

    I am a one hundred percent LD, but on this occasion having seen how my friends have been treated, I am amused; poetic justice indeed.

    August 14th, 2012 at 10:07 am