Sleaford and North Hykeham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 30719 (51.6%)
Labour: 10051 (16.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 10814 (18.17%)
BNP: 1977 (3.32%)
UKIP: 2163 (3.63%)
Others: 3806 (6.39%)
Majority: 19905 (33.43%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26829 (50.8%)
Labour: 13869 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 9498 (18%)
Other: 2649 (5%)
Majority: 12960 (24.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26855 (50.3%)
Labour: 14150 (26.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9710 (18.2%)
UKIP: 2682 (5%)
Majority: 12705 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 24190 (49.7%)
Labour: 15568 (32%)
Liberal Democrat: 7894 (16.2%)
UKIP: 1067 (2.2%)
Majority: 8622 (17.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23358 (43.9%)
Labour: 18235 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 8063 (15.2%)
Referendum: 2942 (5.5%)
Other: 578 (1.1%)
Majority: 5123 (9.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen Phillips (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister.
Stephen Phillips (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister.
James Normington (Labour) Born 1980. Educated at Royds Comprehensive and St Andrews University. Barrister, specialising in Housing Law.
David Harding-Price (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Lincoln Grammar School and Manchester Metropolitan University. Mental health nurse. Contested Newark 2001, Sleaford and North Hykeham 2005.
Roger Doughty (UKIP)Mike Clayton (BNP)Marianne Overton (Lincolnshire Independent) District councillor. Lincolnshire county councillor. Non-executive Director of NHS Lincolnshire and Director of Biosearch.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99850
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 21.6%
Over 60: 24.2%
Born outside UK: 4.2%
White: 98.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.3%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.7%
Social Housing: 12.1% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 1.7%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.1%
I agree that there should be more female Tory MPs, but it would be nice for it to happen without all-women shortlists.
Not so sure about the ethnicity question. The UK is 92% white, but the ethnicity of the average Tory seat is probably more like 97-98%. I admire black and Asian MPs who are selected on merit in mainly white seats such as Dr Ashok Kumar and Adam Afriyie.
There are rumours floating around Lincolnshire that the Tory selection was ‘fixed’ & that party members are furious. Do anyone know anything about this?
This new seat already had 84,438 voters in December 2008.
Is there any kind of a poll for Sleaford & NH indicating intention to vote at this moment in time?
The Tories nearly doubled Labour’s vote in 2005 but that was before Hogg (who is stepping down) became one of the faces of the expenses scandal – surely that is likely to eat into the Tory majority in this seat?
Is there any statistical evidence to say Labour (or Lib Dem) would have half a chance of taking this seat away from the Conservatives?
Councillor Mike Clayton will fight this seat for the BNP. I’m not sure whereabouts he’s a councillor.
Sleaford is between Grantham and Boston, and seems to have a fair amount of new housing, but overall looks fairly attractive.
I guess the Tory majority is likely to be around 35%, over Labour.
It’ll be interesting to see how the BNP do here because in neighbouring Boston & Skegness they’ve met with considerable success, but I’ve always assumed this to be a much more middle-class seat by comparison.
Andy JS – Mike is a parish cllr in the local area
Very late reply to Capt Democracy – quite simply, no. There is no chance whatsoever of Labour or any other party beating the Conservatives here. I think Sleaford has often been a bit Labour-inclined, but the rest of the seat is pretty owner-occupied & middle-class & pretty solid Tory.
Barnaby is right. It IS possible to talk up the impact of the now 6 month old expenses scandals-especially where the offending member is standing down.
I don’t think the expenses scandals will be the determining factor in any constituency in the land.
Well it will have an impact in some Shaun. For example Feltham & Heston would probably be a routine Labour hold if it weren’t for Alan Keen’s involvement in this issue. I still think he will hold on but not without difficulty. Luton South would, it is true, be a Conservative target in this election whether or not the issue impacts on the seat. And if it’s close in Harrow East, which it still could be, it could be a determining factor there too. In Bury North too although David Chaytor is not standing it could add a bit to the pro-Tory swing. However Shaun broadly speaking you are correct, it won’t have anything like the impact that it would have done had there been an election, say, 6 months ago.
And of course, on an UNS several polls – and even NBeale’s WMA at the moment – suggest a Labour hold in Brentford & Isleworth, but not many folk would currently predict that. If the Tories got 4-5% more votes than Labour (my current prediction) but the Tories held that seat (also my current prediction) surely that would be the expenses issue writ large.
What’s going on? I find myself agreeing with Shaun Bennett! If an MP is standing down, I expect the expenses issue will have minimal impact on the chances of their party holding the constituency.
Of course, it has indirect effects that could still be relevant. Incumbency is usually thought to be worth a couple of percent, iirc, and any change of candidate, whether under a cloud of expenses or not, means that such an advantage is lost to that party this time. The other indirect effect is the ‘plague on all your houses’ effect, whereby a proportion of voters pretty much everywhere will decide not to vote, or not to vote for the parties they associate most with the expenses issue. But I can’t see that causing a swing from one of the parties caught up in it to another one: unless something happens between now and polling day to suddenly mean the mud sticks better to one of parties than the others.
Lincolnshire County Councillor Marianne Overton standing as an Ind here
Richard Broom standing here for Jury Team
Cons Hold= 14,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 12 400
Con maj 19,000
Your website is out of date as it does not include my details.
Marianne Overton Lincolnshire Independent, District and County Councillor and Non-executive Director of NHS Lincolnshire and Director of Biosearch.
CON HOLD
Which seats were Sleaford in from 1918 to 1997, and which seats were North Hykeham in before 1997?
The significant rise in the ‘Others’ vote seems to have hit Labour rather than the Tories which, considering the infamy of Douglas Hogg and his moat, is perhaps a little surprising.
Maybe people here simply don’t hold the same negative views on moats which the metropolitan classes in London do. Though the Independent did well to get over 6%.
So the ‘Others’, instead of damaging the Tories, have in fact helped them further strengthen their hold on this seat – compared to 2005.
However, compared to the ’92 notionals the Tory vote share is still about 7% below what it was.
But due to the corresponding fall in Labour’s share, and the Lib Dems’ failure to make much headway, the majority is only about 3% smaller than in the ’92 notionals (and due to population growth the numeric majority is actually slightly larger).
Harry Sleaford was in Grantham from 1918 to the creation of this seat and North Hykeham was also until 1983 when it was added to Lincoln until 1997
‘The significant rise in the ‘Others’ vote seems to have hit Labour rather than the Tories which, considering the infamy of Douglas Hogg and his moat, is perhaps a little surprising.’
Had Douglas Hogg stood I think the Tories would have suffered the dip you speak of
In seats where the local associations – whether Tory, Labour or Lib Dem – replaced expense-dogged MPs with new candidates, it ceased to be an issue
The best example is Gosport
The local association replaced Peter Viggers – with his even more infamous duck house – with a new candidate and she doubled the Tory majority to over 14,000 – quite an achievemt as Gosport does NOT appear to be the sort of place that sends Tories to Parliament with five figure majorities – as anyone whose been there woukld undoubtedly testify
This is the 1992 notional result in this seat –
Sleaford & North Hykeham.
Now there was another change this year – but very minor change (reduction) ,
and the comparison is very close.
1992 Sleaford and North Hykeham.
Con 31,180 58.4%
Lab 11,698 21.9%
LD 8,873 16.6%
Other 1,603 3.0%
Turnout 80.4%
C maj 19,482 36.5%
Adjusting for the 2010 boundary change,
I estimate the change 1992 to 2010 is
Con -7.3%
LD +1.8%
Lab -4.7%
More others entering the contest in 2010 compared
to 1992.
The actual number of Tory votes is almost what it was in the notional 1992 though.
The Tory share must have been hit by the independent in 2010. They could easily poll 60% next time if the Tories are on about 40% nationally.
Possibly – somewhat disappointing result for them, although the party did bounce back somewhat in 2001/5 despite largely flatlining nationally.
They’ve managed to hit 30K, probably because of larger electorate.