Skipton and Ripon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27685 (50.59%)
Labour: 5498 (10.05%)
Liberal Democrat: 17735 (32.41%)
BNP: 1403 (2.56%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.49%)
Independent: 315 (0.58%)
Others: 179 (0.33%)
Majority: 9950 (18.18%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 24821 (49.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 13341 (26.8%)
Labour: 9279 (18.6%)
Other: 2381 (4.8%)
Majority: 11480 (23%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25100 (49.7%)
Labour: 9393 (18.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 13480 (26.7%)
UKIP: 2274 (4.5%)
Other: 274 (0.5%)
Majority: 11620 (23%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 25736 (52.4%)
Labour: 8543 (17.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 12806 (26.1%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.2%)
Majority: 12930 (26.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25294 (46.5%)
Labour: 12171 (22.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13674 (25.2%)
Referendum: 3212 (5.9%)
Majority: 11620 (21.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Julian Smith (Conservative) Managing director of a recruitment firm.
Julian Smith (Conservative) Managing director of a recruitment firm.
Claire Hazelgrove (Labour) Born 1988, Northamptonshire. Educated at York University.
Helen Flynn (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Wakefield Girls High School and Cambridge University. Formerly worked in book publishing and running a mail order business.
Rodney Mills (UKIP) Bernard Allen (BNP) Dylan Gilligan (Youth).Robert Leakey (Virtual Currency Cognitive Appraisal)Roger Bell (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95226
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.6%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 4.6%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.3%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 22.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.6%
Owner-Occupied: 74.3%
Social Housing: 9.6% (Council: 6.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.4%
CON hold with much reduce majority. Tory candidate very low quality
The Tory majority was indeed reduced, but not “much reduced”.
The majority is now 9,950 (18.2%). A vote share of 50.6%.
The Lib Dems got almost 33% of the vote, Labour fell to 10%.
As the Conservatives recieved half the vote, a majority near 10,000, and there isn’t a very large Labour vote left to squeeze, I’m not too concerned about this result… but it is nevertheless a bit disappointing.
John D. With a 2.6% swing to Libs and a 6.6% towards the Tories in Yorks & Humberside – that implies close to a 9% swing. All other things being equal, another swing of that magnitude and this seat becomes marginal. And the excellent campaign “vote Clegg get Brown” factor will not be around. If I were a local Tory, I’d not be worried but I would be concerned.
I don’t this seat will become marginal.The new MP will probably increase his vote with incumbency anyway quite apart from the pro-Tory demography that exists here.
I’m a Conseervative so people will be saying I would say this wouldn’t I, but there were some dubious allegations spread about Julian Smith during the campaign- some propagated by an anonymous website.
It was suggested that he would spend most of his time in Singapore because of his business interests; that his marriage was a sham because his wife did not support him (she’s a BBC producer who takes political impartiality seriously.) That he employed only good looking women in his business.
I am not making this up see the Covert Craven website if you don’t believe me.
I think these allegations damaged his campaign especially as a lot of activists including me were helping in marginals.
This could be a wake up call for us and I certainly think Julian Smith will get round the constituency a lot more
than David Curry did. He needs to.
Covert Craven is deliberately scurrilous (a la private eye) and normally focuses on Craven District Council (where is has an almost unlimited flow of incompetence to digest). It’s key point re recent election as I read it is that our new Tory MP is not quite what he says he is – though I agree the wife and business points in the blog could politely be described as unnecessary. And it is quite funny….
With what is going on, the Labour squeeze which the LibDems benefited from would go away. However, there were many Tories who did not like a london based policy wonk being parachuted in – including a top Tory grandee Lady Roach in a letter to Craven Herald mid 09.
I also believe the tories benefited from a strong anti Brown/change the government vote. Any sort of PR coming out of the coalition talks will make this constituency very very interesting, if still naturally Tory!
Wow – coalition with the erstwhile enemy. Is this end for the LibDems in Tory seats?
Interesting issue for us LibDems is how to fight the Tories in 2015. Despite everyone predicting an significantly increase majority, we reversed the trend but has the coalition messed that up for next time?
Which seats has Masham been in? Has it been in this seat since 1983 or 1997?
Since 1983 before which it was in Richmond (because it was part of the North Riding unlike the rest of this constituency which is the West Riding)
Thank you Pete – presumably before 1885 it was in the Yorkshire North Riding multi-member constituency, as per your explanation, which was split into several single seats including Richmond
This constituency is split over two districts, both of which were gained by the Conservatives from NOC in May:
Harrogate (Ripon)
Craven (Skipton)
I’d be interested to know how the separate seats of Skipton and Ripon (1979) would have voted in 2010.
Is a reasonable estimate possible?
Particulary Skipton.
Skipton before 1983 included territory which is now in Lancashire, chiefly Earby, Barnoldswick & Barrowford which are in Pendle today.
Phew. I misread that the first time. I thought it said that Skipton before 1983 included territory which is now in Lanarkshire! Now that would have been some constituency
I didn’t realise Skipton includes areas in Lancashire either. (in 1979).
That doesn’t seem a boundary one should cross, 2 very proud independent counties.
The areas were in the West Riding until 1974, when they were moved into Lancashire. The Saddleworth area of Huddersfield West was in a very similar position, going to Greater Manchester, but the constituency remaining unchanged until 1983.
Did Julian Smith respond to any of the points raised by Covert Craven about him at the hustings or since?
“The Saddleworth area of Huddersfield West was in a very similar position”
The Saddleworth area of Colne Valley rather.
I think part of Ribble Valley might have been in Yorkshire as well.
Was it really previously in Colne Valley? I assumed it was from Huddersfield West, as Geoffrey Dickens moved over in 1983.
The small area moved to Ribble Valley was around Bolton-by-Bowland and Waddington.
There was, as far as I know, no connexion between Huddersfield West and Littleborough & Saddleworth. Dickens’s constituency effectively disappeared and he stood in a nearby, but unconnected, one.
Thanks for these comments/clarifications about the boundaries – very useful.
(The Saddleworth comparison interesting)
One thing that I don’t think was clear from this talk of bits of constituency crossing county boundaries: as I understand it when the constituency boundaries were drawn up in each case, they followed the county boundary. It is just that boundaries drawn up on one county boundary continued to be used long after the county boundary had moved (please correct me if I am wrong).
Prediction for 2015-
Smith (Tory)- 25, 637 (49.7%, -0.89%)
Lib Dem- 13, 926 (27.0%, -5.41%)
Labour- 9, 792 (19.0%, +8.95%)
UKIP- 2, 143 (4,1%, +0.61%)
Con hold.
Turnout- 51, 498.
Majority- 11, 711 (22.7%)
Swing- +2.26% From Lib Dem to Con.
Anyone know if this guy really holds surgeries or just advertises them? Tried tho meet him about something which would create a lot of jobs in his constituency. Computer says NO.