Sheffield Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4206 (10.14%)
Labour: 17138 (41.33%)
Liberal Democrat: 16973 (40.93%)
BNP: 903 (2.18%)
UKIP: 652 (1.57%)
Green: 1556 (3.75%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
Majority: 165 (0.4%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 13978 (46.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 9171 (30.6%)
Conservative: 3165 (10.6%)
Other: 3662 (12.2%)
Majority: 4807 (16%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3094 (10.3%)
Labour: 14950 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7895 (26.3%)
BNP: 539 (1.8%)
Green: 1808 (6%)
UKIP: 415 (1.4%)
Other: 1284 (4.3%)
Majority: 7055 (23.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3289 (10.9%)
Labour: 18477 (61.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5933 (19.7%)
UKIP: 257 (0.9%)
Green: 1008 (3.4%)
Other: 1105 (3.7%)
Majority: 12544 (41.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4341 (11.9%)
Labour: 23179 (63.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6273 (17.2%)
Referendum: 863 (2.4%)
Other: 1763 (4.8%)
Majority: 16906 (46.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Paul Blomfield (Labour) Educated at York University. Qualified teacher, manager of University of Sheffield Student Union.
Andrew Lee (Conservative) Paul Blomfield (Labour) Educated at York University. Qualified teacher, manager of University of Sheffield Student Union.Paul Scriven (Liberal Democrat) born 1966, Huddersfield. Educated at Manchester University. Former hospital manager. Sheffield City councillor and Liberal Democrat group leader since 2002.Jillian Creasy (Green) Part time GP. Sheffield councillor since 2004.Jeffrey Shaw (UKIP) Tracey Smith (BNP) Rod Rodgers (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90150
Male: 50.3%
Female: 49.7%
Under 18: 17.6%
Over 60: 15.9%
Born outside UK: 12.5%
White: 83.7%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 7.9%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.2%
Christian: 55.1%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 8.4%
Full time students: 25.6%
Graduates 16-74: 26.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.1%
Owner-Occupied: 42.8%
Social Housing: 34.3% (Council: 25.3%, Housing Ass.: 9%)
Privately Rented: 19.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.1%
Ed, I wouldn’t say that the lib dems are doing that well in terms of Posters/Signs in Broomhill. They’ve got roughly the same amount as I remember from the 2008 locals, the difference being that labour have a decent number up as well (I can’t remember seeing a labour poster in 2008) certainly, given that the lib dems will need to rack up a serious differential in Broomhill to undo the damage that they will take on the Manor, if posters translate into votes they’re nowhere near far enough in front.
The greens have some window posters round here, but I haven’t spotted any garden signs yet.
I wonder where Mr. Clegg may spend his final hours before polling…..? Here perhaps….?
Last couple of lib dem leaflets have been incredibly negative. They’re now putting in factually innacurate smears against the labour candidate accusing him of having ‘no track record of delivering for sheffield’ which when you read the smaller print below the fact they support this with is that he ‘hasn’t been a councillor’.
Bar charts claiming that they’re the natural home for green and tory voters remain. Not sure that most green and tory supporters believe that they have exactly the same values.
Cogload. That would not surprise me.
I think the Clegg factor must help in Sheffield. I shall take a narrow LD gain
I think this is bound to be close now. Again Labour’s lack of an incumbent could mean the difference. (ugh) LD GAIN
Plus i’m guessing some Clegg effect (although from his visit to the crucible it could be negative)… i’m changing prediction to narrow LD gain now
I think NC will be around Sheffield central like a rash. Expect every activist within 100sqmiles to join the charge.
LD gain.
I have a feeling its a LD gain
LD 14000
lABOUR 13500
Conservative 2800
Green 2000
BNP 1000
UKIP 750
Oth 300
Well there are some predictions here that I obviously wouldn’t mind…. but It think it will be a sign of a very good day for my party if this seat is gained
Final prediction: narrow Lib Dem gain.
Clegg did indeed finish his campaign here last night, giving a speech yesterday evening outside the City Hall. The Daily Telegraph notes that the last party leader to finish their campaign with a rally in Sheffield was Kinnock in 1992… probably not an omen!
When I voted in this seat this morning, I was surprised that, in this Labour/Lib Dem marginal, the only teller was from the Green Party.
wow it was close – but Labour has survived. Again first-time incumbency will help Blomfield next time though the LDs clearly will carry on campaigning, and should continue to be a threat.
With the Sheffield voting fiasco which seemed to have hit students in particular and the narrowness of the result I wondered if this result might have been challenged in the courts.
Richard,
I thought that, but when I looked earlier, I didn’t see Central on the list of affected constituencies. The Sheffield one was Hallam.
I heard it affected P&S as well.
The reason I thought this constituency must have been affected was because they mentioned students.
If they were unable to do Hallam properly (and I’ve heard from Hallam voters that they didn’t) it really does beggar belief as Hallam has high turnouts even in local elections and has a stable residential population.
Noticed your good personal result in Wombwell BTW Keith. Outside the 3 ‘Penistone’ wards you had the second best Conservative vote in Barnsley.
There was one polling station affected in P&S as far as I am aware.
The turnout in Hallam was particularly high (about 73%), but surely that should have been anticipated bearing in mind the Clegg factor and, as you say, historically high turnouts. In Central it was only 60% so I doubt there would have been a problem.
As for Wombwell, I beat the BNP which was the main thing. I bet not many people would have bet on a Tory finishing second here a few years ago.
The polling station in Hallam had over 3000 students in new accommodation who were automatically registered in by the university going to it. The ensuing mess when they all tried to vote should have been predicted by staff paying attention to the electoral register. From reports I heard, even earlier in the day when it was quiet the staff were hardly efficient and this wont have helped in the rush. Having been at the Sheffield count, someone needs to give the elections office a shake up as the decision not to have separate ballot boxes for local/national elections was just silly.
However, no polling stations in Central constituency were as badly affected. Various stations had queues, but not as long and everyone who joined a queue was able to vote.
Delighted with the result, particularly given some of the disgustingly negative literature that the lib dems were putting out.
I veered between predicting a narrow Labour hold and a narrow Lib Dem gain, and the result shows why – 125 votes in it. It was really a very strong Lib Dem performance, and they managed to squeeze the Green vote a bit, but they couldn’t win over Tory voters and so ultimately lost out.
Am I right in thinking that Sheffield city centre was in the old Central seat from 1885-1950, Sheffield Park from 1950-1983 and this seat since?
Harry Porter,
Sheffield city centre is currently in this constituency.
These maps show that most of the city centre was in Sheffield Park between 1950 and 1983
http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/boundary_map_page.jsp?u_id=12749685&c_id=10090283
but the north western part of the city centre was in the Sheffield Hillsborough seat http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/boundary_map_page.jsp?u_id=12746969&c_id=10090283
Using the ‘Vision of Britain’ website again, it appears that between 1885 and 1950 the city centre was split between the old Sheffield Central, Sheffield Attercliffe and Sheffield Ecclesall constituencies – depending on which areas you consider to be part of the ‘city centre’.
Wonder what would happen in this seat if there was an election tomorrow? I think the LD vote would be decimated given that they ran a campaign to the left of Labour, as they also attempted in Liverpool – not one which stressed cuts and agreement with the Conservative approach
“Wonder what would happen in this seat if there was an election tomorrow?”
Many of the coalition cuts have specifically hit Sheffield (e.g. Forgemasters loan), so I think the Lib Dems would do far, far worse if there was an election tomorrow. I’m sure they’d easily hold Hallam, though.
It is interesting that on the original boundary recommendations for Sheffield by the Boundary Commission , the LibDems would have won this seat easily with a majority of around 4,000 .
The original proposals were for Central to include Crooks ward instead of Manor Castle which would have been in Heeley and for Beauchief to be in Hallam instead of Crooks . Clegg’s majority in Hallam would have been around 1,000 less than the actual .
Couple of interesting developments in this constituency.
There will be a by-election in Manor Castle ward on the 21st of October, following the sad death of Jan Wilson.
A Lib Dem councillor in Walkley ward has crossed the floor, resulting in an increasingly finely balanced council. Rumours are doing the rounds of further discord in the lib dem ranks.
Manor Castle, 6th May 2010:
Lab – 3,371 (55.4%)
LD – 1,552 (25.5%)
BNP – 465 (7.6%)
C – 438 (7.2%)
Green – 260 (4.3%)
Turnout – 52.3%
Manor Castle by-election – 21 October 2010
Labour – 2092 (75.8% +20.4)
Lib Dem – 303 (11.0% -14.5)
Green – 224 (8.1% +3.8)
Conservative – 142 (5.1% -2.1)
+ / – since May this year.
Turnout: 22.4%
I suppose it’s worth a brief comment on the Manor Castle by-election. It tells us very little; the Labour increase and Lib Dem slump may look significant, but with this being one of Labour’s safest wards, and the sympathy generated through the death of Jan Wilson, it doesn’t necessarily reflect what will happen elsewhere in the city.
Actually, I think this pattern may well appear in marginal wards, but this is not good evidence of that.
Something I had no idea about until just now was the short-lived existence between 1950 and 1955 of a constituency called Sheffield Neepsend.
Even more strange is the fact that the newly elected MP in 1950, Harry Morris, resigned the seat just 4 weeks after the election in order to make way for Frank Soskice, the Solicitor General since 1945, who’s Birkenhead East constituency had just been abolished. He had continued to hold that position whilst out of Parliament. He became Attorney General a few weeks later.
I wonder how many other constituencies only existed between 1950 and 1955?
Droylesdon was another as were Croydons East and West. There were one or two constituencies which were only in existance for one election, that of 1945, such as Bucklow in Cheshire
Wikipedia has a “List of former United Kingdom Parliament constituencies” making it easy to check the answers. Other short-lived constituencies include Milton Keynes (1983 to 1992) and various Irish seats – including pretty much everywhere in Northern Ireland – created in 1918 and abolished in 1922.
The number of areas which saw such shortlived seats as the 1945-1950 and 1950-1955 ones is the reason why boundary commissions were moved further apart. Interesting that this is now being reversed.
The thought came to me that this constituency has rather more in common with Manchester Withington than Sheffield Hallam does.
I wonder if Pete could estimate the results here in 1983 and also what they would have been in the originally proposed Sheffield Central ie based on Cnetral, Walkley, Nether Edge, Broomhill and Crookes wards.
The idea that Sheffield Central could have been Conservative in the 1980s is amusing.
I can do that Richard if you could tell me which of the old wards would have been included
Pete,
Sheffield Heeley was once a safe Tory seat and was won by the Conservative in 1970.
I believe it was affected by major boundary changes in 1974 and 1983 that helped Labour but there may also have been demographic change.
How would the pre-1974 Heeley have voted in 2010?
Would it be a Lib Dem marginal?
“I wonder if Pete could estimate the results here in 1983 and also what they would have been in the originally proposed Sheffield Central ie based on Cnetral, Walkley, Nether Edge, Broomhill and Crookes wards.”
Tricky with the ward boundary changes but I make it something like this:
Lab 27239 50.4%
SDP 13373 24.7%
Con 12867 23.8%
Oth 561 1.0%
So still very safe, not surprising considering it contains almost all of the Sheffield Central of that time minus Burngreave plus the better Labour areas of both Hallam (Broomhill, Nether Edge) and Hillsborough (Walkley)
The original proposals made things a bit closer, but hardly marginal in the context of 1983
Lab 20798 40.7%
Con 16037 31.4%
SDP 13793 27.0%
Oth 486 1.0%
“How would the pre-1974 Heeley have voted in 2010?”
Again difficult to work out through all the ward boundary changes but I make it something like this:
LD 17058 39.0%
Lab 13659 31.2%
Con 9017 20.6%
BNP 1342 3.1%
UKIP 1305 3.0%
Grn 1112 2.5%
oth 291 0.7%
I don’t think Heeley was ever a safe Tory seat, unlike Hallam which was – it was a marginal which was just slightly Tory-inclined, until the mixture of boundary & demographic changes which Peter alludes to. I think quite a lot of the more owner-occupied middle class areas of Heeley went into the then Attercliffe, but those areas became much more pro-Labour thereafter.
It was certainly a safe seat in the 1950s. It swung very heavily in the 1964 election and was then of course lost in 1966 this being due to the construction of peripheral council estates such as in the Gleadless Valley. Then as you say successive boundary changes in 1974 and 1983 made it safer by removing suburban areas (though to Hallam rather than Attercliffe I think) and adding in extra areas towards the centre (such as Park ward added in 1983)
I’m surprised that Labour would so easily win the alternative Central in 1983 as it would consist of:
Nether Edge – Con in 1983 locals
Broomhill – Con in 1983 locals (although part of that ward is now in Fulwood)
Sharrow – Lab in 1983 locals
Netherthorpe – Lab in 1983 locals
The part of Hallam ward which is now in Crookes – Con in 1983 locals
The part of Walkley ward which is now in Walkley – Lab in 1983 locals
I stand corrected on the safety of Heeley in the 50s – for some reason I was under the impression that the seast didn’t come into being until 1964, which is clearly incorrect. Vis a vis bits of Heeley going into Attercliffe, I’m merely going by what I read some years ago in the Almanac of British Politics but of course I might have misremembered. It’s sad when a great mind like mine falls prey to old age isn’t it.
Local election result 2010
LibD 16366
Lab 14593
Grn 5677
Con 3709
Oth 1197
Comparing with historical council wards is unlikely to be particularly enlightening, as the demographic changes in this constituency was probably as significant as the geographic change.
Since in 1983 Netherthorpe would have contained Kelvin Flats which I’m assuming were fairly solid for labour, likewise, Park Hill is currently all but empty when previously it would have represented a huge chunk of labour voters.
Adding to that, between 2005 and 2010 there must be 5-10,000 new build student rooms in the city centre plus several thousand private sector flats which are mostly rented to 20-35 year old graduates.
So even on the old boundaries this would have been a lot closer, but the huge amount of construction in the city centre explains how both main contenders increased their number of votes over the projections. There must be a some fairly serious gaps in the electoral register in this constituency.
Most of the wards here are safe. Labour look likely to take the Green’s seat in Central, although the Greens have been very active and remain hopeful of a hold. The Lib Dems might struggle in Nether Edge, but Broomhill should be safe, with the opposition split between the Greens and Labour.
Hmm, only Manor is really safe. Broomhill is likely to elect a Lib Dem, though it will be interesting to see how much the lib dem wins by and who gets 2nd from Labour and the Greens.
Walkley looks very tight, probably leaning labour but will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems can hang on.
Central is unpredictable to say the least, last year is an outlier but I expect it to be tight between Labour and the Greens.
I expect Nether Edge to stay Lib Dem, but on a reduced majority.
I’d dispute the ‘most of the wards here are safe’ statement, 1 is safe, 1 is semi safe, 1 is semi marginal and 2 are full blown marginals.
Safe was rather an exaggeration, and I should have mentioned that I meant Walkley was safely in Labour’s hands. It turns out the remaining wards were less safe than either of us thought. The Greens held Central, but Labour now hold all the other wards here, having overturned a sizeable Lib Dem lead in Nether Edge, and a big one in Broomhill.
Speaking of Broomhill, the Lib Dem leader on the council (and narrow loser in Sheffield Central at the general election) is up for election there next year. Can he hold his seat, when his party barely beat the Greens for second place this year?
Paul Blomsfield MP underwent a surgery to remove a brain tumour yesterday. The tumor was discovered earlier this week
Good luck for the full recovery
Yes indeed, very best of luck to him in his ordeal.
I can only imagine what he and his family must have been going through. I don’t know how I would cope in that situation. Its one of those things oyu just can’t imagine until you’re in that position.
Shocked to hear about this, and obviously wish him the very best. Shaun your kind words and concern will be very much appreciated
I’ve discovered this tremendously interesting map which gives demographic info down to the very local level:
http://www.maptube.org/map.aspx?s=DBLFOjgwVssaRkeVyWDApcHAp1LAoYnd
That is very interesting. One flaw is immediately apparent however in that they must have classified as ‘Asian communities’ or ‘Afro-Carribean’ communities anywhere where the the proportion of those groups was higher than say 15% of the population (I don’t know what figure they have used but it is relatively low). This means that most of London is classified as one or other of those and the area where I live is apparently an ‘Asian community’. There is a significant enough Asian population where I live but they are nowhere near dominant in the way that they are in parts of Luton for example. This category also makes no differentiation between wealthy and poor Asian areas. It would be better not to introduce race into this particular system – afterall some of these areas would be thriving suburbs, some would be terraced blue collar, and the ethnicity of those living there would seem to be a better subject for a different map. Apart from that, if I am reading the colour key right, most of Tower Hamlets is down as an Afro Carribean community rather than Asian so God alone knows how they’ve arrived at that
You’re right about the Tower Hamlets error and the general London crapness, the differentiations in the other colours don’t show up properly on my computer either.
But in places outside the big urban areas it is very good. I can spot little communities of only a few hundred by their demographic colour – it is very accurate in Yorkshire.
2012 Local Election resultsfor Sheffield Central with change on 2011
Lab 48.1% (+2.1%)
LD 17.8% (-4.9%)
Con 4.0% (-2.3%)
Oth 30.1% (including 24% for Greens) – up 5.1%
The Greens won Central ward with the other 4 voting Labour
‘it appears that between 1885 and 1950 the city centre was split between the old Sheffield Central, Sheffield Attercliffe and Sheffield Ecclesall constituencies – depending on which areas you consider to be part of the ‘city centre’’
I am thinking particularly of the current Central ward which includes the Cathedral, I presume that area was in the seats I listed above