Sefton Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16445 (33.93%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9656 (19.92%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.24%)
Majority: 3862 (7.97%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19184 (46.2%)
Conservative: 13642 (32.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7543 (18.2%)
Other: 1146 (2.8%)
Majority: 5542 (13.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11623 (32.1%)
Labour: 17463 (48.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6298 (17.4%)
UKIP: 454 (1.3%)
Other: 356 (1%)
Majority: 5840 (16.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11974 (32.5%)
Labour: 20327 (55.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4084 (11.1%)
Other: 481 (1.3%)
Majority: 8353 (22.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15367 (34.8%)
Labour: 22549 (51.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5080 (11.5%)
Referendum: 813 (1.8%)
Other: 332 (0.8%)
Majority: 7182 (16.3%)
Boundary changes: Major. The seat loses part of Crosby itself to Bootle, while gaining the Sefton parts of the old Knowsley North and Sefton East seat, namely Park, Sudell and Molyneaux wards, which include Maghull. Concerns about splitting Crosby were raised at the boundary review, but alternative plans would have had to split Bootle or Maghull instead. With only part of Crosby in the new seat, the name was changed to Sefton Central.
Profile: Sefton Central is a suburban seat stretching along the Irish sea coast north between Southport and Liverpool, covering the northern part of Crosby, Maghull and Formby. It is a relatively affluent seat with some of the most desirable areas of housing in Merseyside such as Blundellsands and Freshfields. Mostly residential in character, it is also a popular with tourists in the Summer. Crosby beach is the site of Antony Gormley`s sculpture another place – consisting of 100 upright, cast-iron, life-size figures, scattered for 2 miles across the beach.
Despite being a notional Labour seat, at a local level the Labour party do not have a single councillor, with the wards held by either the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats. Its predecessor Crosby was once regarded as a safe Conservative seat until the iconic 1981 by-election victory by the SDP`s Shirley Williams. Even so, it returned to the Tories and was held by them until 1997.
Current MP: Bill Esterson (Labour) Runs a training consultancy. Medway councillor.
Debi Jones (Conservative) Television and radio presenter. Sefton borough councillor since 2006. Contested Crosby in 2005. Bill Esterson (Labour) Runs a training consultancy. Medway councillor.
Richard Clein (Liberal Democrat) born 1971. Former constituency organiser for Malcolm Bruce 1995-1997 and BBC Radio Merseyside journalist (1998-2003), now associate director for a public affairs agency. 
Peter Harper (UKIP) born Aintree. Educated at Maghull High School. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88864
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 26.4%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 87.2%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 20.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 87.9%
Social Housing: 6.8% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.3%)
Privately Rented: 3.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
There was some moderate Conservative success in this seat in 2008 (and even 2011 IIRC)
so I’m not sure this is part of some long run of catastrophoic results (to the extent the Tories are out of the picture)
although the 2012 situation could indicate a tipping point has arrived.
I should probably say that the Conservatives remain rather strong in Formby, which is another town in the seat. There they currently have 3 of the 6 councillors of the town, exactly 50%. The other 3 are Labour councillors, so Formby seems to be split right down the middle at this moment in time politically, surprising for a town that was once just as dominantly Conservative as Crosby, if not maybe more so. Finally there’s Maghull, a town which was also once in days long gone loyal to the Tories. This is situated more towards West Lancashire and is situated inland compared to the coastal towns of Crosby and Formby. Here, the Lib Dems were safe in the town’s wards of Park and Sudell for many years, but now there’s been a near Lib Dem wipeout at local elections, to the point where only the former Leader of Sefton Council Tony Robertson is one of only two Lib Dems left outside of Southport. Maghull seems to be trending Labour heavily as well by the looks of the results from the past few local elections…
Yes I was rather struck to see how anti Con Maghull is – I think it was an area which was attracted to the SDP quite heavily when Shirley Wiliams was there
but that’s pretty irrelevant to the deep seated trends now
Yes it its rather irrelevant now incredibly- Particularly when one considers the Lib Dem strength that was present in Maghull, which has now evaporated…
I can’t see the conservative vote falling below 30% here when the push comes to the shove
(i.e. Lab 49% con 30% LD 12% others 9%)
Remember, too, that Church and Victoria in Bootle constituency are both areas regarded as part of Crosby.