Sefton Central
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19184 (46.2%)
Conservative: 13642 (32.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7543 (18.2%)
Other: 1146 (2.8%)
Majority: 5542 (13.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11623 (32.1%)
Labour: 17463 (48.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6298 (17.4%)
UKIP: 454 (1.3%)
Other: 356 (1%)
Majority: 5840 (16.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11974 (32.5%)
Labour: 20327 (55.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4084 (11.1%)
Other: 481 (1.3%)
Majority: 8353 (22.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15367 (34.8%)
Labour: 22549 (51.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5080 (11.5%)
Referendum: 813 (1.8%)
Other: 332 (0.8%)
Majority: 7182 (16.3%)
Boundary changes: Major. The seat loses part of Crosby itself to Bootle, while gaining the Sefton parts of the old Knowsley North and Sefton East seat, namely Park, Sudell and Molyneaux wards, which include Maghull. Concerns about splitting Crosby were raised at the boundary review, but alternative plans would have had to split Bootle or Maghull instead. With only part of Crosby in the new seat, the name was changed to Sefton Central.
Profile: Sefton Central is a suburban seat stretching along the Irish sea coast north between Southport and Liverpool, covering the northern part of Crosby, Maghull and Formby. It is a relatively affluent seat with some of the most desirable areas of housing in Merseyside such as Blundellsands and Freshfields. Mostly residential in character, it is also a popular with tourists in the Summer. Crosby beach is the site of Antony Gormley`s sculpture another place - consisting of 100 upright, cast-iron, life-size figures, scattered for 2 miles across the beach.
Despite being a notional Labour seat, at a local level the Labour party do not have a single councillor, with the wards held by either the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats. Its predecessor Crosby was once regarded as a safe Conservative seat until the iconic 1981 by-election victory by the SDP`s Shirley Williams. Even so, it returned to the Tories and was held by them until 1997.
Current MP: Claire Curtis-Thomas(Labour) born 1958, Neath. Educated at Mynyddbach Comprehensive and University College Wales. Phd from the University of Staffordshire. Chartered Engineer and former manager of environmental affairs at Shell Chemicals UK. Crewe and Nantwich Borough councillor 1995-1997. First elected as MP for Crosby in 1997 as Claire Curtis-Tansley (she changed her name upon her election) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Debi Jones (Conservative) Television and radio presenter. Sefton borough councillor since 2006. Contested Crosby in 2005. 
Richard Clein (Liberal Democrat) born 1971. Former constituency organiser for Malcolm Bruce 1995-1997 and BBC Radio Merseyside journalist (1998-2003), now associate director for a public affairs agency. 
Peter Harper (UKIP) born Aintree. Educated at Maghull High School.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88864
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 26.4%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 87.2%
Full time students: 3.5%
Graduates 16-74: 20.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 87.9%
Social Housing: 6.8% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.3%)
Privately Rented: 3.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
Target 127.
It’s about on the border of where the Tories would do better than in 1992 - a bit like 1979.
This seat is one of the hardest ones to guess in my view - although perhaps not to the people who know it well.
I picture it being one of those places that Labour clings onto - like Morecambe and Lunsdale, but perhaps I’m overcomplicating it and the Tories do take it.
I see I made this prediction in June last year.
It could turn out correct, but perhaps be the other way round.
2009/2010 most likely. Taken me a long time to come to this view actually.
Con 19,674 42.4% +9.5%
Lab 18,884 40.7% -5.5%
LD 7,053 15.2% -3.0%
UKIP 790 1.7% +0.4% Est.
Total votes 46,400
Con majority 790 1.7%
Swing +7.5%
With no councillors here a Labour loss could mean they fall out of contention for good (as has happened to the Tories in places like Yardley and Withington, which they held until 1992 and are now nowhere in)
It all comes down to whether they can rebuild the local party in Sefton to prevent that. If they were to drop to 3rd next year then the Lib Dems become the obvious home for the left-leaning voter and it becomes a long way back for Labour
very different places don’t you think.
I suspect this seat always was a Con-Lab area, and regionally it is a Labour stronghold.
Labour’s deep problems in 1981-83 and still 87 disguised it.
All this talk that the Lib Dems are going to displace Labour or even win here is surely going too far, unless anyone can quantify it further.
Galloglass
I was not referring to your post, rather Miriam Purdom’s one where she predicted “This all points to a Lib Dem victory of 3 - 5,000 over tories, with Labour a few thousand behind in third”.
Sorry if I offended you!!!
For what it’s worth, I believe that the Lib Dem challenger is the first serious candidate from the party in this constituency for a long time. A strong campaign from them throughout the constituency may yield an increased vote.
I agree, I think the Lib Dem vote will go up a bit, but I cannot see them finishing anywhere but 3rd here.
Most Merseysiders think about voting conservative, and when they get in the voting booth, vote labour….and if they don’t, then they vote for the liberal democrats. Maybe the 50% tax for the ex and current footballers in the North of this constituency might change things!!!
I think Joe James’s prediction is about right, though the Lib Dems may do a bit better than 7000 votes.
tories have gone to ground here, i’ve got friends right across the constituency and we haven’t seen anything from them since last year. debi jones really is going to have to pull her finger out if she wants to achieve anything.
if what the comments say is right…that they have lost their agent because of cutbacks it does make you wonder how hard they want to work to keep prospects high here.
As a lifelong tory im disappointed that neither myself or any of my many friends have had knocks on our doors…they need to get a grip
Sadly James is wrong and MandyB is right. The local Conservative office closed and the Agent left, 6 months ago. It’s the LibDems who are making inroads and I speak as a disappointed Conservative.
The Maghull and Freshfield parts are voting LibDem now and we lost Manor ward to the LDs last year. This ward used to be a Con - Lab marginal.