Sedgefield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9445 (23.48%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8033 (19.97%)
BNP: 2075 (5.16%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.68%)
Independent: 1049 (2.61%)
Majority: 8696 (21.62%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 23889 (58.8%)
Conservative: 5846 (14.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4861 (12%)
Other: 6013 (14.8%)
Majority: 17875 (44%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 5972 (14.4%)
Labour: 24429 (58.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4935 (11.9%)
UKIP: 646 (1.6%)
Other: 5501 (13.3%)
Majority: 18457 (44.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8397 (20.9%)
Labour: 26110 (64.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3624 (9%)
UKIP: 974 (2.4%)
Other: 1153 (2.9%)
Majority: 17713 (44%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8383 (17.8%)
Labour: 33526 (71.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 3050 (6.5%)
Referendum: 1683 (3.6%)
Other: 474 (1%)
Majority: 25143 (53.4%)
Boundary changes: loses part of the split wards of Faverdale and Harrowgate Hill to Darlington.
Profile: A former mining seat in County Durham, best known for being the former constituency of Tony Blair, who resigned in 2007 to take up a post as a Middle East envoy. Sedgefield itself is a small town of 5000, from where the Conservatives draw what little strength they have in the constituency. The rest of the seat is made up of former coalfields and mining villages, now diversifying into light engineering. The main population centre is the new town of Newton Aycliffe, built in 1947.
Sedgefield is a rock solid Labour seat, and had been held by Tony Blair since its creation in 1983. In 2005 it was contested by 15 candidates, the most of any seat in the UK. Candidates included Reg Keys, the father of a military policeman killed in Iraq who took 10% of the vote. The original Conservative candidate, Danny Kruger, was forced to stand down shortly before the election campaign after being quoted as saying that the Conservatives would bring in a “period of creative destruction in the public services”.
Current MP: Phil Wilson(Labour) born 1959, Durham. Educated at Trimdon Secondary Modern. Former shop assistant, clerical worker and aide to Tony Blair, instrumental in originally selecting Blair in 1983. Prior to his election ran a PR company (more information at They work for you)
Neil Mahapatra (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Works for a family investment office.Phil Wilson(Labour) born 1959, Durham. Educated at Trimdon Secondary Modern. Former shop assistant, clerical worker and aide to Tony Blair, instrumental in originally selecting Blair in 1983. Prior to his election ran a PR company (more information at They work for you)
Alan Thompson (Liberal Democrat)Brian Gregory (UKIP)Mark Walker (BNP)Paul Gittins (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81356
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 22.2%
Born outside UK: 1.8%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 83.4%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 13.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36.3%
Owner-Occupied: 66%
Social Housing: 27.5% (Council: 25.6%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 1.7%
2007 By-election
The Sedgefield by-election was held on the 19th July following the resignation of Tony Blair and during Gordon Brown`s honeymoon as Labour leader. The Labour party successfully held the seat with a 14.1% drop in their vote, with the Liberal Democrats taking second place from the Conservatives. The BNP and local Independent councillor Paul Gittins both managed to save their deposit.
By-election result
Phil Wilson (Labour): 12528 (44.8%)
Greg Stone (Liberal Democrat): 5572 (19.9%)
Graham Robb (Conservative): 4082 (14.6%)
Andrew Spence (BNP): 2494 (8.9%)
Paul Gittins (Independent): 1885 (6.7%)
Toby Horton (UKIP): 536 (1.9%)
Chris Haine (Green): 348 (1.2%)
Stephen Gash (English Democrat): 177 (0.6%)
Tim Grainger (Christian): 177 (0.6%)
Alan Hope (Loony): 129 (0.5%)
Norman Scarth (Anti-crime): 34 (0.1%)
Majority: 6956 (24.9%)
By-election candidates:
Stephen Gash (English Democrat) stood in the 2006 local elections in Carlisle.
Paul Gittins (Independent) Sedgefield councillor and former greengrocer.
Tim Grainger (Christian Party) Barrister.
Chris Haine (Green) born 1969. Educated at Northumbria University. Humanist Funeral officiant. 
Alan Hope (Offical Monster Raving Loony) born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent by-election 2006.
Toby Horton (UKIP) Director of a television production company. Contested Sedgefield 1983, Rother Valley 1992 for the Conservative Party. Defected to UKIP in 2006.
Graham Robb (Conservative) Educated at Nunthorpe School, Middlesborough. Founder and co-owner of a PR company. Former BBC radio producer and presenter. Was lead spokesman for the North East Says No referendum campaign. Contested Hartlepool 1992.
Norman Scarth (Anti Crime) born 1925. Retired stud farmer. Gaoled for six years in 2001 for wounding with intent after attacking a baliff with a chainsaw. Contested Chesterfield in 1997 as an Independent Old Age Pensioner.
Andrew Spence (BNP) Farmer and haulier. Leading figure in 2000 fuel protests. Contested Sedgefield in 2001 for UKIP.
Greg Stone (Liberal Democrat) born 1974, Yorkshire. Educated at Fulford School and Newcastle University. Newcastle councillor since 1998. Contested Vale of York 2001, Newcastle upon Tyne Central 2005. Contested North East region in 2004 European elections.
Phil Wilson (Labour) born 1959, Durham. Educated at Trimdon Secondary Modern. Former shop assistant, clerical worker and aide to Tony Blair, instrumental in originally selecting Blair in 1983. Now runs a PR company.
Much to my surprise, it has been reported that Trimdon Labour Club is to close.
“In terms of Durham County Council wards, which ones make up this constituency?”
It isn’t straightforward because these wards are now spplit between constituencies. The wards contained wholly within this seat are:
Aycliffe East; Aycliffe North; Aycliffe West; Ferryhill; Sedgefield; Thornley; Trimdon
The following wards are divided between this seat and Bishop Auckland:
Chilton; Shildon East
The following wards are divided between this seat and Easington:
Blackhalls; Wingate
There are also of course the rural wards of Darlington borough which are included in this seat: Heighington & Coniscliffe; Hurworth; Middleton St George; Sadberge and Whessoe
Thanks Pete – I was not aware that Darlington Borough Council still existed, thought the whole of County Durham was now under the control of Durham County Council
No Darlington is a separate unitary authority, not controlled by Durham County Council.
I have caught an early glimpse of Tony Blair’s memoirs. Though I am by no means a fan, I can’t disagree with something he said;
“If Labour simply defaults to a ‘Tory cutters, Lib Dem collaborators’ mantra, it may well benefit in the short term; however, it will lose any possibility of being an alternative government.
We should also accept that from 2005 onwards Labour was insufficiently vigorous in limiting or eliminating the potential structural deficit … Labour has no option but to be credible in its own right. That means, as I say, having a coherent position on the deficit.”
The next Labour leader would be wise to take note.
What will be satisfying for the Conservatives here was keeping second place after losing it in the byelection.
I always thought the Conservatives could have done well here in the byelection but they seemed obsessed with Ealing Southall at that time.
What were the wards in this seat when it was re-created in 1983? The present-day unitary authority of Durham County Council didn’t exist at the time of course
“I always thought the Conservatives could have done well here in the byelection but they seemed obsessed with Ealing Southall at that time.”
Neither was particularly worth losing any sleep over. The were both “safe labour” seats, and even if they were by elections, which for some reasons behave very eccentrically, the “Brown Bounce” ruled out any chance of a decent result.
The BNP seem to have built up a saved deposit here.
I wonder if this is a long term prospect for the Tories. Seems to be doing worse that the national swing every time for labour since ’97. Demographic change in an ex-mining area again?
Kind of the opposite to Finchley.
hmm – there are still some really hopeless areas for the Conservatives in the seat such as Newton Aycliffe. I’d be surprised if the Tories make much more progress here for a while yet. If in future boundary changes Darlington were to be extended this seat would be even safer – although Darlington itself would be a better Conservative prospect.
What were the wards of this constituency from 1983-97? The present-day unitary authority of Durham County Council didn’t exist at the time of course – I would guess the local authorities from which the constituency was made up were the district of Easington and the boroughs of Sedgefield and Darlington.
There were parts of three authorities in the 1983 incarnation.
Darlington: Heighington, Hurworth, Middleton St George, Sadberge, Whessoe
Easington: Deaf Hill, Hutton Henry, Thornley, Wheatley Hill, Wingate
Sedgefield: Bishop Middleham, Broom, Chilton, Cornforth, Ferryhill, Fishburn, Low Spennymoor and Tudhoe Grange, Middlestone, New Trimdon and Trimdon Grange, Old Trimdon, Sedgefield, Spennymoor, Tudhoe
A tantalising thought. Had the Sedgefield by-election been timed to coincide with Crewe and Nantwich, I wonder if the result could have been something more like this. A similar kind of swing, taking into account the absence of Reg Keays.
Lab 16505 40.6 -18.3
C 16464 40.5 +26.1
LD 3252 8.0 – 4.0
Oth 4431 10.9
A shame it had to happen in the middle of the Brown Bounce – although Labour would still have won in 2010.
i don’t think we would have got it.
But agree it could have been a completely different type of result to that in 2007.
(have no local knowledge though)
This is a seat Labour wouldn’t lose in a by-election under any circumstances in my opinion.
Sedgefield – next election possible scenario
Labour 61%
Con 24%
LD 7%
Others 8%
Possible, but it depends very much on what the overall result of the next election is.
I’m not making predictions for the next election that is foolish. I’m just hypothesising on where the LD collapse is.
ipsos mori has support for the LDs down to a mere 4% in the north east of england
My gut feel is they may end up with about 15%,
as they managed 14.1% in 1979 when the polls showed them on under 10% most of the time from 1976 onwards,
and ended up with 18% in 1992 after a horrible period for them between late 1987 and 1990.
Nevertheless, I do think they have a real problem.
My gut feel is they may end up with about 15%
Agree they could get 15%. Can’t see them getting more than that though.
I reckon Labour’s real core vote is about 35% and was supressed this year because of Brown.
The clues to this could be in the sub-questions in the surveys, rather than the Voting Intention figure itself.
I think most polls show something like a third or up to 40% of LD voters (from May) dislike the coalition with the Tories, so this would suggest a fall to about 15-16%.
We can’t be absolutely sure that the rest of the decline – to around 10% (depending on the poll) is due to the coalition.
Sometimes LD support falls away when people see them as a bit irrelevant or in the way, not due to particular hostility to them.
(although in my view the public should have been much more hostile to them before the election).
I think Labour’s core vote is a bit lower than 35%. They only polled 36% in 2005, 32% in 1987 and 28% in 1983. Demographic change has probably increased their core vote from around 28% to 30%.
Probably both of them are around 30-31%.
Lets say Labour went a bit below the core this time, for short term factors, but then what is a core if you can’t deliver it all the time.
That’s true – about 30% each.
I think Labour went slightly below their core in England because of Brown but exceeded it in Scotland so the two factors may have cancelled each other out.
I also don’t understand why Labour did so badly in NE england – can’t just have been Corus but some opinion polls have suggested there has been a remarkable poll back to Labour in this region recently which is even more surprising.
Not always where it mattered though – Tynemouth, City of Durham, Blaydon, Newcastle upon Tyne North.
Badly on Teeside and in semi rural areas of Durham.
I doubt the LDs will hold Yellowcar, even if the electoral system is fiddled.
Yes, although City of Durham had a different demographic IMO, Blaydon was interesting.
I think the lib dems will definitely lose Redcar and also Berwick even if the constituency is extended towards Morpeth.
Yes.
I think Tynemouth, though obviously it’s own place, and a long way from London, could have voting habits a bit like some parts of London, and the West Midlands, where people vote Conservative to keep the Council Tax low, but favour government spending and Labour’s vote only shows in General Elections.
Although the Tories did themselves no favours by appearing to rig the candidate selection – fairly or unfairly she paid the price, although I suspect Labour would have still won with the Valley ward added plus C being around 2% short nationally
This seat looks likely to be abolished.
JJB – I think its more of a matter of the Labour vote not being very interested in local elections. I feel (live locally) that there is a lot of always-voting tory pensioners around but ultimatley the seat is just not a tory seat demographically anymore.
My predicitions of marginality appear to be have hugely helped by the boundary review. In a landslide year for the Tories it is a Blue seat now. Demographic change will only push it bluer.
But the new Sedgefield and Yarm seat looks very little like the present Sedgefield seat. There is a lot of change so it is hard to tell really, but it looks to me like a revised successor to Stockton South with not much political change going on between the old and new seats.
Shaun is undoubtedly correct, and I don’t think there’s any real evidence of pro-Tory demographic change in the area either. There are many other constituencies where there’s a much more compelling case for that happening.